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The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

New Delhi, Jun 7: India registered its highest single-day spike of COVID-19 cases for the fifth consecutive day on Sunday, with 9,971 new infections taking the country's tally to 2,46,628, while the death toll rose to 6,929, according to the Union Health Ministry.

India registered 287 deaths in the 24 hours since Saturday morning.

India had raced past Spain on Saturday to become the fifth worst-hit nation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, only the US, Brazil, Russia and the UK are ahead of it.

The number of active COVID-19 cases stands at 1,20,406, according to the Health Ministry.

A total of 1,19,292 people have recovered and one patient has migrated, the Ministry said.

During the last 24 hours, a total of 5,220 COVID-19 patients have been cured, the ministry said.

"Thus, around 48.37 per cent patients have recovered so far," a senior ministry official said.

The tally of confirmed cases includes foreigners.

The Indian Council of Medical Research has further ramped up the testing capacity for detecting the novel coronavirus in infected persons.

The number of government labs has been increased to 531 and private labs to 228, taking the total number of labs to 759.

As many as 1,42,069 samples were tested in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of samples tested till now to 46,66,386.

Deaths in India per lakh population (0.49) are much lower than the world average of 5.17 and are the lowest among countries that have eased lockdown such as Germany (10.35), Italy (55.78), the UK (59.62) and Spain (58.06), as per a WHO situation report cited by the Health Ministry.

Cases in India per lakh population (17.32) are much lower than the world average of 87.74 and are the lowest among countries that have eased lockdown such as Germany (219.93), Italy (387.33), the UK (419.54) and Spain (515.61).

Of the 287 deaths reported since Saturday morning, 120 were from Maharashtra, 53 from Delhi, 29 from Gujarat, 19 from Tamil Nadu, 17 from West Bengal, 15 from Madhya Pradesh, 13 from Rajasthan, 10 from Telangana, three from Jammu and Kashmir, two each from Karnataka, Punjab and Chhattisgarh and one each from Kerala and Bihar.

Of the total 6,929 fatalities, Maharashtra tops the tally with 2,969 deaths, followed by Gujarat with 1,219 deaths, Delhi with 761, Madhya Pradesh with 399, West Bengal with 383, Uttar Pradesh with 257, Tamil Nadu with 251, Rajasthan with 231, Telangana with 123 and Andhra Pradesh with 73 deaths.

The death toll reached 59 in Karnataka and 50 in Punjab.

Jammu and Kashmir has reported 39 fatalities due to the disease, Bihar has 30, Haryana has 24 deaths, Kerala has 15, Uttarakhand has 11, Odisha has eight and Jharkhand has reported seven deaths so far.

Himachal Pradesh and Chandigarh have registered five COVID-19 fatalities each. Assam and Chhattisgarh have recorded four deaths each.

Meghalaya and Ladakh have reported one COVID-19 fatality each, according to the Health Ministry data.

According to the Ministry's website, more than 70 per cent of the deaths are due to comorbidities.

The highest number of confirmed cases in the country are from Maharashtra at 82,968, followed by Tamil Nadu at 30,152, Delhi at 27,654, Gujarat at 19,592, Rajasthan at 10,331, Uttar Pradesh at 9,733 and Madhya Pradesh at 9,228, according to the Health Ministry data updated in the morning.

The number of COVID-19 cases has gone up to 7,738 in West Bengal, 5,213 in Karnataka, 4,915 in Bihar and 4,510 in Andhra Pradesh.

It has risen to 3,952 in Haryana, 3,496 in Telangana, 3,467 in Jammu and Kashmir and 2,781 in Odisha.

Punjab has reported 2,515 coronavirus infections so far, while Assam has 2,397 cases. A total of 1,807 people have been infected with the virus in Kerala and 1,303 in Uttarakhand.

Jharkhand has registered 1,000 cases, Chhattisgarh has 923, Tripura has 747, Himachal Pradesh has 400, Chandigarh has 309 cases, Goa has 267, Manipur has 157, Nagaland has 107, and Puducherry and Ladakh have 99 cases.

Arunachal Pradesh has 47 COVID-19 cases, while Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Meghalaya have registered 33 infections each.

Mizoram has reported 24 cases and Dadar and Nagar Haveli has 19 cases, while Sikkim has reported seven cases till now.

"8,605 cases are being reassigned to states," the Ministry said on its website adding, "our figures are being reconciled with the ICMR."

State-wise distribution is subject to further verification and reconciliation, it added.