25 eloquent points from PM Modi’s I-Day speech 

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Bengaluru, Mar 15: The Karnataka government on Saturday said it would advice IT companies to allow employees to work from home as most coronavirus  affected patients or their relatives were from this sector.

"If anybody (IT companies) asks (employees to work in the office),I will speak to them through the deputy chief minister so that they take steps to issue a definite order. We have very clearly said, Stay Home, stay safe," medical education minister Dr K Sudhakar said. He recalled that the chief minister himself had issued a strict advisory to allow employees work from home.

The minister said the IT sector understands the gravity of the situation because they are educated, have travelled abroad and have more exposure to information world. "No action," he said to a question on what action would be taken against companies who do not follow the instructions.

"There is no action to be taken. We have not promulgated any law. It should be a kind of a cohesive approach from the government and the responsible citizen," he said.

The minister said he had also acted on the advice of Infosys Foundation chairperson Sudha Murty, who had told him that all areas where public and students gather, including malls, theatres, schools and colleges, should be closed.

Sudhakar claimed that the woman whose husband had tested positive for cornavirus here, had flown straight to Delhi from the city and had not come out of Bengaluru airport. He said the newly-wed couple came to Bengaluru airport on March 8 night and early on March 9, she flew alone to Delhi. From there she travelled to Agra by train. She did not come out of the airport, said the minister.

To a question on legal action being contemplated against her, the minister said he would take a call said he was not thinking of legal action at present and would take a call only after the woman, who has also tested positive for the virus, comes out of isolation. He insisted that the purpose of getting details was not to scare people.

On the preparedness in Kalaburagi, where the first Coronavirus death in India was reported, he said the administration had 'clamped down" the entire district. Meanwhile, the deputy commissioner of Ballari district ordered cancellation of tourists' entry to the world heritage site of Hampi from March 15 to 22 to prevent further spread of the virus.

Mangaluru, May 15: In a shocking development, as many as 20 people from coastal Karnataka, who recently came from United Arab Emirates today tested positive for covid-19.

More than 175 repatriates were brought from Dubai to Mangaluru International Airport on May 12. Among them residents of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi districts were quarantined in their respective district. 

The throat swabs of all the passengers were sent for covid-19 testing on the following day. 21 of them obtained positive report today. Among those tested covid-19 positive, 15 are residents of Dakshina Kannada and five are from Udupi district. 

They were shifted to covid-19 hospitals in their respective districts today.