275 Indians, evacuated from Iran, reach Jodhpur

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Lucknow, Feb 16: Resident doctors at the AMU's Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital on Sunday demanded that the charges slapped against Dr Kafeel Khan under the National Security Act be withdrawn.

Dr Khan was arrested by the UP Special Task Force from Mumbai on January 29 in connection with a speech he had delivered during an anti-CAA protest at Aligarh Muslim University on December 12.

The Resident Doctors' Association (RDA) held a protest march on the hospital campus against the slapping of the NSA against the Gorakhpur doctor after he was granted bail in connection with the alleged hate speech.

RDA president Dr Hamza Malik said the move was a "blatant attempt to crush dissent and a violation of the Constitution of india".

He said by targeting the doctor, the UP government had done a great disservice to the entire medical community.

The AMU Students' Coordination Committee also described the decision to charge Dr Kafeel under the NSA a "direct assault" on a member of the medical fraternity who is "known for his upright behaviour and a champion of free speech".

Committee spokesperson and former AMU Students' Union president Faizul Hasan said by charging Dr Kafeel under the NSA even after he got bail was "a direct violation of a Supreme Court ruling on such issues".

Hasan said Dr Kafeel's fate should serve as an eye-opener for the rest of the country regarding the democratic rights in Uttar Pradesh.

The doctor was earlier arrested for his alleged role in the death of over 60 children within an week at the BRD Medical College in Gorakhpur in August 2017. Short supply of oxygen at the children's ward was blamed at that time for the deaths.

About two years later, a state government probe cleared Khan of all major charges, prompting him to seek an apology from the Yogi Adityanath government.

New Delhi, Mar 26: Despite repeated assurances by the Centre and state government of no shortage of food and essential services in Delhi, many daily wage earners have started fleeing the national capital on foot to return to their native villages in nearby Uttar Pradesh and other states because of the hardships being faced by them.
Most daily wage earners who are fleeing have complained that they are doing so because they will die of hunger due to lack of resources at their disposal.
"I am going to Azamgarh, my native place which is more than 800 kilometers from here. We have started walking towards our village. On the roads, if we get some vehicles then it will be all right otherwise we will continue on foot. I used to work in the construction sector but all work has stopped, we therefore have no other means to buy our rations. Atleast, food is guaranteed in our homes," Ghanshyam, a daily wage earner, told ANI here.
Rani, another daily wage earner, who was fleeing Delhi along with her family said, "Who would want to leave on foot, but what other options do we have. Our children will die of hunger, even if they are saved from the disease. That is why we are leaving."
While the government has been assuring that it will provide food and other essentials to the low-income groups, the people complained that they are yet to receive any help.
The departing of people has started despite repeated warnings by governments to prevent the influx of persons living in other states to curtail the spread of coronavirus.
Prince, who used to reside in Mongolpuri area of Delhi, said, "If we continue to stay the landlord will pester us for rent. The prices of all commodities are rising with each passing day, this way we will have nothing left to survive. We did not get any help from the government. I am, therefore, returning to Kasganj, which is close to 300 kilometres from Delhi. We will at least get food served twice a day in the village, nobody is offering us even water here."
Earlier on Tuesday, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal had announced Rs 5,000 for each construction worker under Construction Workers Welfare Board Fund.
Addressing a video conference here, he said, "The Delhi government will give Rs 5,000 to each construction worker as their livelihood has been affected due the outbreak of coronavirus."
He also said that the number of night shelters in the city has been increased and more food is being distributed to homeless people.
He also said that due to curfew, several people were not able to get food, and urged the public to send such people to the nearest shelters of the Delhi government, where food was being arranged.