5 lakh cyber warriors to bolster India's e-defence

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, Jun 25: The Congress on Thursday asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi why has not India gained anything from the "strange bonhomie" which it claimed he shared with China.

Seeking to turn the tables on the ruling party, Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said the BJP also shared bonhomie with the Communist Party of China (CPC) with several party-level exchanges taking place in the past.

He sought to know whether India's borders have become safe after these exchanges in the last many years.

The Congress leader asked what has the country gained out of these exchange delegations and why are the borders insecure despite the bonds that the two ruling parties of India and China share with each other.

"There is a strange kind of bonhomie between Narendra Modi and China, a two decade old bonhomie. Why doesn't the country get the benefit of that bonhomie," he asked at a virtual press conference.

Khera said all that the Congress will continue to question is about the political will that just does not get visible when it comes to China.

"Whatever is happening on the border today, is it despite the bonhomie which you have with China, or is it because of the bonhomie which you have with China. The country needs to know," he asked.

"We do want to ask you, if as president of the party, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah have been sending delegations,  strengthening the bonds between the Communist Party of China and the BJP. What has the country gained out of these bonds? Why are the borders insecure despite these bonds that you have," he also asked.

The ruling has hit out at the Congress for signing an MoU with China's Communist Party and has questioned its "bond" with the ruling party in China.

Khera also asked what role did the India Foundation, an organisation run by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval's son has in strengthening the bonds with China.

"Why does India Foundation keep visiting these countries? Who do they meet? What's the outcome? What's the role of NSA Ajit Doval's son- Shaurya Doval? He keeps attending these meetings through India Foundation? These are important questions in the light of what is happening," he asked.

Khera said the prime minister is showing "red eyes" to those who are asking him questions instead of showing them to the enemy.

"It is time to stand with the Army and show red eyes to China," he said.

The Congress leader said questions will be asked to Modi especially when there are definitive reports, satellite images of incursions in the Ladakh region of India by the Chinese.

He alleged that China laps up the comment of Modi and uses it across the world that the Indian prime minister says that China is in its own territory and Galwan is theirs.

"After a lot of pressure, PMO contradicted what the prime minister said. This kind of a goof up is unpardonable," he alleged.

New Delhi, Jan 9: Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos will be visiting India next week and is likely to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and officials, besides industry leaders, according to sources.

The top executive will also attend SMBhav – an event focussing on small and medium businesses in India - that is slated for January 15-16 in the capital city.

When contacted, Amazon declined to comment.

Amazon, which has seen significant growth in its business in India, has also witnessed protest from a section of traders in the country who claim that e-commerce giants including Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart offer deep discounts and engage in unfair business practices.

Last year, the government had tightened rules for e-commerce marketplaces with foreign investment. These rules barred such platforms from offering products of sellers in which they hold a stake and banned exclusive marketing arrangements among other clauses. Following this, Amazon restructured its joint ventures to ensure compliance.

Bezos is likely to discuss regulatory issues in his meeting with the government officials.

He is also slated to engage with SMBs during the SMBhav event. The event - which will focus on discussions around how technology adoption can enable SMBs in India - is slated to see participation from industry experts, policymakers, solution providers and Amazon leadership.