AAP govt presents Rs 53,000 cr budget for 2018-19

New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

Jeddah, May 1: The government of India and its diplomatic missions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States have begun elaborate preparations for the massive evacuation of their nationals stranded or needing to return once the lockdown travel restrictions are lifted.

The Indian missions in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar have started registration for the return of their nationals. The move coincides with the directive of New Delhi to the Indian Air Force and Navy to get their big engines ready to bring back citizens stuck in the GCC states.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has stated that the Indian missions in the GCC states have been liaising with local authorities for repatriation of Indians. More than eight millions Indians work and live in the Gulf countries.

The Indian Embassy in Saudi Arabia said that it has issued directives to their nationals who seek repatriation to India to fill an application form so as to facilitate their travel when the authorities lift the travel restrictions. Similar advisories have also been issued by the embassies in other Gulf States.

The Riyadh Embassy said in a press statement that the purpose is only to collect data and no decision has been taken yet regarding resumption of flights to India.

The Embassy will make an announcement with regard to repatriation of Indian nationals when the government of India takes a decision in this regard, the statement said, adding that separate forms have to be filled for each individual, including Indian worker or his or her family members.

The Embassy is in the process of working out the modalities of evacuation of stranded Indians in line with the directions of the government of India, the statement pointed out.

The Embassy and the Consulate General in Jeddah are closely monitoring the situation and are taking all the required measures to ensure the welfare of Indian citizens.

The missions have taken all the necessary measures for the supply of food, medicines and other emergency assistance to Indians in need and that is in coordination and cooperation with volunteers of major community organizations across the Kingdom.

These initiatives have been accelerated following the interactions of Ambassador Dr. Ausaf Sayeed with community volunteers and social workers from all parts of the Kingdom. The Embassy has also been in touch with all major companies in the Kingdom that employed Indian workers to carry out regular monitoring of the workers’ health, especially in labor camps, and take all other precautionary and preventive measures to ensure their health and safety.

According to the plan drawn up by the government of India, the first commercial flights from the Gulf could start after May 3, if the nationwide lockdown restrictions are not extended.

INS Jalashwa, an amphibious assault ship, and two Magar class tank-landing ships are being readied for the evacuation purposes, India’s IANS reported.

These ships, which have a total capacity of 2,000 people, have started making arrangements as per the standard protocols laid out to deal with suspected coronavirus cases like social distancing and sanitization.

The Indian Air Force has been evacuating citizens from coronavirus hit countries such as China, Japan, Iran, Italy and Kuwait since January. The force has stated that it has kept C-17 Globemaster and C-130s on standby which can be used whenever they are required.

Apart from them, Air India flights are also being kept on standby to pick up stranded Indians from the GCC countries.

15 Indian fatalities in western region

Speaking to Saudi Gazette, Indian Consul General Mohammed Noor Rahman Sheikh said that as of Thursday a total of 15 Indian coronavirus fatalities were reported in the western region.

These included seven cases in Makkah, six in Madinah and two in Jeddah. Around 140 Indians have tested positive in the region where most of the coronavirus cases in the Kingdom have been reported.

He said that permission was not accorded from the Ministry of Haj and Umrah to use the Indian Haj mission facility in Makkah as the center to assist the community members with regard to the coronavirus related cases.

“Our medical in charge is in Makkah and with the support of some other staffers, he has been actively involved in lending a helping hand to those Indian nationals who are in distress,” he said.

“We are in regular contact with the Ministry of Health officials in ensuring quick medical assistance to those who are tested positive.” He said preparations are under way for repatriation of Indians once permission is ready to take them home. “We are maintaining a database of all those who contacted the consulate with a request for their repatriation,” he added.

Meanwhile, the bodies of two Indians from the southern state of Kerala who succumbed to the pandemic were buried in Makkah. Naletil Muhammad from Ancharakkandi of Kannoor district, a restaurant worker in Makkah, gave samples at King Faisal Hospital a few days ago after developing symptoms of the disease.

When the hospital authorities advised him to remain in medical isolation, he reportedly preferred to remain in isolation at his residence where he succumbed to the pandemic after a few days.

Muhammad’s two sons, who are working in Riyadh, alerted his colleagues when they failed to contact him over phone. They found him dead at his residence on Monday. Eventually, Ministry of Health officials sent all his six colleagues to medical isolation.

Kottuwala Ippu Musliyar from Thennala, Vengara in Malappuram district, was a well-known social worker in Makkah. He died of coronavirus at Hira Hospital on Wednesday after undergoing treatment for a couple of days.

Mujeeb Pukkottoor, a prominent Indian social worker and general secretary of Makkah chapter of Kerala Muslim Cultural Center, was authorized by their spouses to carry out their burial procedures.

Accordingly Muhammad was buried on Wednesday and Ippu Musliyar on Thursday at the designated area for the coronavirus deceased persons at Sharaie Cemetery in Makkah.

New Delhi, Jun 18: Republican Party of India (RPI-A) leader Ramdas Athawale on Thursday urged Indians to boycott Chinese food and asked for a ban on all restaurants which serve the cuisine.

"Restaurants selling Chinese food should be banned. Restaurants should be closed by the order of the state government. I appeal to people who consume Chinese food to boycott it," Athawale told ANI here.

The Union Minister also said that both the products which come from China and its literature should also be banned in the country.

"The Chinese literature should also be banned, its products too should be banned and its companies too should not be given business here. We should develop such companies in the country which can manufacture the same products here," he added.

Athawale also warned China to reconsider its actions and stop its nefarious activities on the border by saying, "You took Buddha from us but we don't want yuddha (war) with you. A war will prove to be costly for both countries, economically and loss of lives will also occur. If we (Indians) are not crossing the border then why are you doing so?"

Athawale's statements came after at least 20 Indian Army personnel, including a Colonel rank officer, lost their lives in the violent face-off in the Galwan valley area of Ladakh on June 15.

The clash happened as a result of an attempt by the Chinese troops to "unilaterally change" the status quo during de-escalation in eastern Ladakh and the situation could have been avoided if the agreement at the higher level been scrupulously followed by the Chinese side, India said on June 16.