After Ahmed Patel’s victory D K Shivakumar emerges as a Cong hero

New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Feb 28: The best economic tonic for the coronavirus shock is to contain its spread and worry about stimulus later, said Raghuram Rajan, former head of the Reserve Bank of India.

There’s little central banks can do, and while more government spending would help, the priority should be on convincing companies and households that the virus is under control, he said.

“People want to have a sense that there is a limit to the spread of this virus perhaps because of containment measures or because there is hope that some kind of viral solution can be found,” Rajan told Bloomberg Television’s Haidi Stroud Watts and Shery Ahn.

“At this point I would say the best thing that governments can do is to really fight the epidemic rather than worry about stimulus measures that comes later,” said Rajan, who is currently a professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business.

The spread of coronavirus is pushing the world economy toward its worst performance since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Bank of America Corp. economists warned clients Thursday that they now expect 2.8% global growth this year, the weakest since 2009.

“We have moved from extreme confidence in markets to extreme panic, all in the space of one week,” said Rajan, who previously was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The virus outbreak will force companies to rethink supply chains and overseas production facilities, he said.

“I think we will see a lot of rethinking on this, coming on the back of the trade disruption, now we have this,” Rajan said. “Globalization in production is going to be hit quite badly.”

Bengaluru, May 12: Former chief minister and senior Congress leader Siddaramaiah on Tuesday said that the Central and Karnataka government have failed in containing the coronavirus spread despite having enough time for preparations.

"Central and state government failed in properly controlling COVID-19. The first coronavirus case was reported in Kerala on January 30. Lockdown was imposed on March 24. Both Centre and state had enough time for preparations," Siddaramaiah said in a press meet here.

He said that the Central government did not stop the airline services on time.

"Karnataka government might have been able to stop COVID-19 properly. However, both the state and central government are playing politics over the issue and blaming Tablighi Jamaat for the spread, which is a political strategy painted by the RSS," Siddaramaiah said.

"Who gave the licence to Tablighi's international convention? Who gave them permission in Delhi? They didn't control it. Central government is directly responsible for the increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases in India," he added.

Siddaramaiah said that the lockdown was imposed without any preparation, which he said caused huge problems for the migrant workers across the country.

"Now, the government is collecting ticket fare and looting migrant workers. They don't have jobs or food, they don't have money, and they earn every day to survive. How will they pay for the tickets? Why the government is not arranging for free trains?" the Congress leader said.

He said that around Rs 35,000 crore have been credited to PM CARES fund, Rs 3,000 crore of which was credited from Karnataka alone. "Why are they not using that money?" he asked.

Siddaramaiah said that the party is demanding for the Centre to arrange for migrant workers to return to their native places across the country free of cost.

"We asked Chief Minister to call an all party meeting. We gave many suggestions, which this government did not consider. We also took a delegation and gave a memorandum about farmers, daily wage workers, road side vendors, barbers, problems faced by the unorganized sector. But this government didn't consider any of it," he said.

Questioning the Central government's suggestion to States to amend their Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) Acts, Siddaramaiah said that the move is against the federal system of the country and claimed that it harms the interests of small scale farmers.

He said that the BJP-led state government has also decided to postpone the Gram panchayat elections in the state and is trying to nominate their party workers for village panchayat elections.

"The Government must continue with the present members of the Gram panchayat. If BJP tries to nominate their party members to village panchayats, we will take to streets to protest despite the lockdown," Siddaramaiah added.