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New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

Bengaluru, jul 6: With coronavirus cases surging and hospitals saturated with patients, the Karnataka government is setting up intensive care units (ICUs) at COVID Care Centres (CCC) in the state for severe cases needing oxygen, Deputy Chief Minister C N Ashwath Narayan said on Sunday.

Covid Care Centres are usually meant for patients who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

"Initially, 10 ICUs will be set up at every CCC in Bengaluru and in other cities and towns across the state subsequently," Narayan said in a statement in Bengaluru.

The state government has set up CCCs at the GKVK campus, the Haj Bhavan and the Art of Living Foundation campus in the city so far. The government has also set up a more than 10,000 bed CCC facility in BIEC, on Tumkur road, on the outskirts of the city.

"About 100 ICUs will be set up soon at the new CCCs opened at the Bangalore International Exhibition Centre (BIEC), Ayurveda College, and Koramangala Indoor Stadium," said Narayan.

The sprawling BEIC in the city's northwest will soon have 10,100 beds for treating Covid patients and asymptomatic cases from state-run hospitals.

The state government has also relieved all Health Department employees from administrative and non-medical duties to depute them at the CCCs.

On complaints about the poor quality of food served to Covid patients and the medical staff, Narayan warned the vendors of cancelling their contracts if they did not supply good quality food as per the guidelines.

The minister also directed the Health Department to ensure adequate supply of drugs and medical equipment to all CCCs and state-run hospitals for treating Covid patients.

With a record 1,925 new cases reported on Sunday, the state's tally touched 23,474, including 13,251 active after 9,847 were discharged (including 603 on Sunday), while 372 succumbed to the infection since March 9, with 37 more deaths on Sunday.

Of the total cases across the state, Bengaluru accounted for 1,235, taking its tally to 9,580, including 8,167 while 145 died so far.

Jan 6: Senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader Subramanian Swamy on Sunday said the country's economy is not showing good signs though Prime Minister Narendra Modi has manifested tremendous leadership skills in fighting terror and in social welfare projects.

The fiscal decisions of the government have not yielded the desired results, the Rajya Sabha MP said here.

"Modi had shown tremendous leadership skill in fighting terror, in several social areas, micro areas like bringing toilets to every village home. But the economy is a complex system...," he said while taking part in a discussion.

While every minister is talking about a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024, but the current GDP growth has to be multiplied in four years to achieve that, the former Union minister said.

He said, if wages are slashed as a measure to cope with the situation, labor will become cheap but that will also cut down the people's purchasing power triggering dip in demand, closing down factories and rise in unemployment.

"This is one problem for which you really need an economist," he said.

Swamy said in jest, "I think Modi has one problem with me. Not only I am an economist but also a politician."