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New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Thiruvananthapuram, May 20: As COVID-19 count surges to 666 with 24 new cases reported on Wednesday, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has said that if cases keep increasing in this manner, then the State will be in a 'serious situation.'

Out of 24 new patients, 12 have returned from abroad, 11 others from other States and one has been infected by a contact. Now, total positive cases in the State stand at 666 including 161 active cases, Chief Minister Vijayan said at press meet.

"If the number of COVID-19 cases increases like this, then the State will be in a serious situation. We have given more relaxations in lockdown guidelines. We need to have more strict measures in some areas," he said.

Speaking about the people who are coming to Kerala from other States, he stressed that all people coming from outside are "not carriers." However, the State has to tighten the security as some among those people are "carriers."

The Chief Minister while clearing that there is no restriction for the people to come back to Kerala, said: "Lakhs of people residing in other states cannot come together."

"There is no relaxation in containment areas. Those who came from outside have to be in quarantine. This is their moral responsibility. The State has implemented home quarantine successfully. Various level committees like ward committee, neighbours and residential associations are monitoring the people in quarantine," he said.

Chief Minister Vijayan has directed the police to visit people under home quarantine to take their report and district panchayat to make sure that all panchayats are working in a proper manner.