After CAA, Centre might bring population control law: Niranjan Jyoti

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

New Delhi, Mar 12: The coronavirus pandemic could deal a crippling blow to the Indian travel and tourism industry, specially with the government suspending all visas, with the economic impact being assessed to run into thousands of crores of rupees. According to industry chamber CII, this is the one of the worst crises ever to hit the Indian tourism industry impacting all its geographical segments - inbound, outbound and domestic, almost all tourism verticals - leisure , adventure, heritage, MICE, cruise, corporate and niche segments.

The whole tourism value chain across hotels, travel agents, tour operations, destinations, restaurants, family entertainment venues and air, land and sea transportation have been hit.

In an impact assessment of the coronavirus pandemic, CII Tourism Committee said inbound foreign tourism of over USD 28 billion in value terms accounts for an average 60-65 per cent between October to March.

"As the news of the virus started picking up from November, the percentage of cancellations started going up in this segment exponentially and is reaching a peak of almost 80 per cent now in March in many Indian locations. The value at risk from this segment will be in multiples of tens of thousands of crores," the CII assessment report said.

With India cancelling all visas, the chamber said the impact "will be worse".

It further said,"The forward bookings for the inbound season of October 2020-March 2021 which should have started picking are all muted. These are showing highly discouraging signs with cancellations of important global travel marts which are marketplaces for contracting for the next season."

It further said there are reports of large scale forward cancellations from NRI segment from developed markets, which account for over 60 per cent during April to September inbound visits.

"Unless the progression of the virus stops, almost the entire value for the remainder of 2020 season is at risk," the report added.

ANAROCK Property Consultants Chairman Anuj Puri said India's hospitality sector will definitely be impacted by the announcement of a global pandemic, and the mounting numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country.

"The cancellation of visas for foreigners as well as the strong advice issued to Indians to refrain from unnecessary travel will have a marked effect. This is the most unsettling healthcare crisis in recent times and hotel bookings will go south," he added.

On Indians being advised to refrain from unnecessary travel, as per the CII report almost 28 million plus Indians are estimated to have travelled outside in 2019 and there were almost 1.8 billion domestic tourist footfalls.

The holiday season of Indians -- those travelling within the country and outside -- is heavy in April-July, October and December.

"The December holiday season of 2019 took an estimated hit of almost 40-50 per cent, the holiday season of April to July 2020 is likely to take a humongous hit which could be as high as 80-100 per cent, unless there is positive news of the progression of virus decreasing," the CII assessment report said.

There are advanced cancellations and highly reduced forward booking pipelines for the holiday season. Only corporates are flying and that too only on highly essential same day travel. Most of the MNCs are advising work from home, stifling travel, it added.

On suspension of visas, MakeMyTrip Group CEO Rajesh Magow told ,"The period between February till the end of March is typically a lean period because of exam season but we are seeing a demand slowdown for the upcoming summer holiday season especially for international travel. The situation remains dynamic making it hard to quantify the actual impact on our business and industry at large."

He further said,"The decision by the government will have an impact on inbound and outbound international travel. So far there are no restrictions or advisories issued for domestic travel."

VFS Global Regional Group COO - South Asia, Middle East and North Africa, Americas Vinay Malhotra said,"While it is too early to comment on the impact of coronavirus on visa application trends, so far, our visa application processes in India continue on schedule as per the mandates of our client governments."

He also said the company is exploring steps to assuage concerns of people about visiting busy public areas due to the nature of the virus by considering discounted rates on courier return services for visa customers who want to avoid returning to the visa centres to pick up their passports.

Besides, he said,"We are also contemplating lower fees for our Visa at your doorstep service, for those customers who are requesting an alternative to visiting the centres to submit visa applications."

Mar 19: Amidst spiralling cases of COVID-19 in the country, Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare Ashwini Kumar Choubey on Thursday advocated "absorbing sunlight" as a possible precaution against coronavirus that has claimed over 8,000 lives globally.

Speaking to reporters outside parliament, Choubey said 10-15 minutes in the sun would build immunity as sunlight provides Vitamin D.

"From 11 am to 2 pm the sun is shining brightly. We should spend at least 10-15 minutes to absorb sunlight so that we get vitamin D which improves the immunity of our body and also kills such viruses. All should be aware of (this fact)," he said when asked about the spread of coronavirus.

COVID-19 cases in India climbed to 169 on Thursday after 18 fresh cases were reported from various parts of the country, according to the Union health ministry.

The cases include 25 foreign nationals -- 17 from Italy, 3 from the Philippines, two from the UK, one each belonging to Canada, Indonesia and Singapore.

The figure also includes three deaths reported from Delhi, Karnataka and Maharashtra so far.

According to the World Health Organisation, the novel coronavirus has killed over 8,000 people globally and infected more than two lakh.