After military raid, India looks at more ways to pressure Pakistan

September 30, 2016

New Delhi, Sep 30: Beyond Thursday's raid by Indian special forces into Pakistan's side of divided Kashmir, New Delhi is considering new economic and diplomatic measures to bring pressure to bear on its neighbour, Indian officials said.

militaryIn a rare public acknowledgement, Indian officials said teams of elite troops crossed the de facto border dividing the nuclear-armed rivals in the Himalayan state, killing several militants it believed were planning to attack major cities.

The raids were a direct response to an attack earlier this month on an army base in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan-based militants.

Pakistan denied India had conducted raids on territory it administers and said it was not involved in stoking trouble in Indian-controlled Kashmir. It has demanded New Delhi produce credible evidence to back its claims.

Some Indian officials said the military was not planning further attacks or a major military offensive against Pakistan.

But they said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was debating whether to use New Delhi's rising economic and diplomatic weight to squeeze Pakistan, a country one-fifth its size and with an economy seven times smaller.

"The objective is not just to go across the border and kill 10-12 people," said an Indian security official involved in the daily consultations since the Sept. 18 attack on an army base in the border town of Uri in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed.

"The objective is to bring about a change in Pakistani behaviour, and for that you need to move on multiple levels.

"The strategy will involve all instruments of national power. Military is only one of the options," added the official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Options under consideration include choking trade with Pakistan that takes place through third countries such as the United Arab Emirates, officials said, even though it is limited and in India's favour.

New Delhi is also considering building dams on rivers running into Pakistan and intensifying diplomatic pressure, hoping that it can show other countries how militants based in Pakistan impact the rest of the world, the officials added.

According to one of them, India could try to dissuade international companies from conducting business in Pakistan.

On The Offensive

The steps being considered signal a far more assertive posture by India under Modi's nationalist administration than the previous government, but it risks further escalating tensions between the countries.

Recent Indian governments have held off launching military strikes, including when gunmen from Pakistan mounted a three-day assault on Mumbai in 2008, for fear it could invite retaliation from Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear conflict in the worst-case scenario.

One Indian security official described the new Indian approach as moving from a "defensive posture to defensive offence", under which India works on the vulnerabilities of Pakistan - its economy, internal security and international image as an unstable nation, home to militant Islamist groups.

"Pakistan's vulnerability is many times higher than that of India," the official said.Hours after Thursday's raid, one Indian government official said New Delhi would review its economic relationship, including trade flows, with Pakistan.

But he downplayed the possibility of India taking measures such as blocking travel between the two countries, saying the reality of policy-making was much more sober.

Blocking Trade

Official trade between India and Pakistan was a modest $2.6 billion in 2014, but informal trade is estimated to be closer to $5 billion, with jewellery, textiles and machinery exported from India through third-country ports such as Dubai.

India's informal imports from Pakistan through the same channels consist of textiles, dry fruits, spices and cement.

Indian security planners said a crackdown on such trade, in which some former members of Pakistan's powerful military are believed to be active, would help increase the pressure.

The head of Pakistan's Board of Investment, Miftah Ismail, said sanctions had usually not worked elsewhere in the world.

He said there was little trade between the two countries, and since much of it was in India's favour, any restrictions would affect India more than Pakistan.

"If India does (go ahead with economic sanctions), Pakistan will somehow react, and we will further impoverish the people in both countries," said Ismail, who is also a special assistant to the Pakistan prime minister. "I don't see anything good coming out of this."

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Agencies
April 23,2020

More and more Indians have become better prepared in the last one month, as far as stocking of their ration, medicine or money is concerned, according to the IANS-CVoter COVID-19 Tracker.

With the second leg of the lockdown half way through and Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying it's a long haul, 57.2% respondents said they have less than three weeks of stock while 43.3% said they have a stock that will last beyond that

However, if one breaks into weeks, most respondents said they are prepared for a week's time. 24.5% respondents said they have ration, medicine or money to last a week. This is closely followed by 21.9 % respondents saying they are ready for a month.

Meanwhile, 20.4 % said they are ready for a couple of weeks. There are 15.8 % who said they are ready for more than a month with food, ration and medicine. A tiny 5.6 % said they are ready with three weeks of stock.

However, there is 12.3% who still seem to live on the edge with less than a week's preparation.

But, the biggest takeaway from the IANS-CVoter COVID-19 Tracker is that in the last one month, a massive segment of society realised that the fight is long and the preparation should also be to last that long.

o put things into context, on March 16 when the tracker started, a whopping 77.1% said they have stock to last for less than a week. More than a month later on April 21, that number jumped to just 12.3%, which essentially means, people have become better prepared for a long-hauled lockdown period.

Similarly, on April 21, a sizable 21.9% respondents claimed they are ready with ration and medicine that will last them a month. On March 16, not even one respondent could claim they have a month's stock. In fact till March 22, just ahead of the announcement of the first lockdown, no respondent the IANS-CVoter tracker said that they have a month's preparation.

Similarly, when the tracker started, 9.9% said they simply ‘don't know'. As on April 21, that number is a big zero.

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News Network
May 18,2020

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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News Network
April 8,2020

New Delhi, Apr 8: The death toll due to the novel coronavirus rose to 149 and the number of cases to 5,194 in the country on Wednesday, according to the Union Health Ministry.

While the number of active COVID-19 cases is 4,643, as many as 401 people were cured and discharged and one had migrated, it said.

The total number of cases include 70 foreign nationals.

According to the ministry's data updated at 9 a.m., 25 new deaths have been reported since Tuesday.

Sixteen deaths were reported from Maharashtra, two each from Delhi, West Bengal, Haryana and Tamil Nadu and one from Andhra Pradesh.

Maharashtra has reported the most coronavirus deaths at 64, followed by Gujarat  and Madhya Pradesh at 13 each and Delhi at 9.

Telengana, Punjab and Tamil Nadu have reported seven fatalities each.

West Bengal has registered five deaths, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have reported four each, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan have recorded three deaths each.

Two deaths each have been reported from Jammu and Kashmir and Kerala.

Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Odisha reported one fatality each, according to the health ministry data.

However, a PTI tally of figures reported by various states as on Tuesday 9.45 p.m. showed 5,192 testing positive across the country and at least 162 deaths.

There has been a lag in the Union Health Ministry figures, compared to the numbers announced by different states, which officials attribute to procedural delays in assigning the cases to individual states.

The highest number of confirmed cases in the country are from Maharashtra at 1018, followed by Tamil Nadu at 690 and Delhi with 576 cases.

Telengana has reported 364 COVID-19 cases followed by Kerala at 336.

Rajasthan has 328 cases, Uttar Pradesh has 326 and Andhra Pradesh reported 305 coronavirus cases.

Novel coronavirus cases have risen to 229 in Madhya Pradesh, 175 in Karnataka and 165 in Gujarat.

Haryana has 147 cases, Jammu and Kashmir has 116, West Bengal has 99 and Punjab has 91 positive patients so far. Odisha has reported 42 coronavirus cases.

Thirty- eight people were infected with the virus in Bihar while Uttarakhand has 31 patients and Assam 27.

Chandigarh  and Himachal Pradesh have 18 cases each while Ladakh has 14 positive patients so far.

Ten cases each have been reported from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Chhattisgarh. 

Goa has reported seven COVID-19 infections, followed by Puducherry at five cases. Jharkhand has reported four cases and Manipur two. 

Tripura, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh have reported one case each.

"State-wise distribution is subject to further verification and reconciliation," the ministry said on its website.

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