AIADMK likely to join NDA soon

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 2: With the coronavirus lockdown in place, liquor would be delivered home by state-run retail outlets in Kerala after the left government has decided to issue special passes to tipplers, who exhibit withdrawal symptoms and have doctors prescription.

Protesting the government decision, the Kerala Government Medical Officers Association (KGMOA) wore black badges on Wednesday, but attended duty and seeking immediate withdrawal of the order, saying it was "anti-people".

As per guidelines issued by the Kerala State Beverages Corporation managing director G Sparjan Kumar, for the supply of liquor, a service charge of Rs 100 would be collected from each pass holder for meeting the delivery expenses.

Each person would be entitled to 3 litres of Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) and sale of wine and beer was not envisaged, the order stated.

Those not willing to undertake the home delivery, the name and details of the employee should be reported to the Head office for submission to the government, it said.

A civil police officer will have to accompany the distribution vehicle.

The sale of liquor should be only to the pass holders, limiting it to the quantity mentioned in the pass.

Any excess sale to pass holders or sales to non-pass holders is strictly prohibited, the order said.

In the order issued on Monday, the government said, following the lockdown and the closure of liquor outlets in the state, there were many instances of social issues, including suicidal tendencies shown by those who consumed liquor regularly and the state government has decided to initiate steps to resolve the matter.

Speaking to reporters, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan said his government has not forced anyone to prescribe liquor to addicts.

He was responding to a query on the indifference of doctors towards the matter of prescribing liquor to addicts.

"If the doctors are not ready to prescribe liquor, it's fine. We are not forcing anyone to do so. We were just following the protocol which are prevalent at many places. It's been over a week. The family and friends of the addicts can gently persuade them to approach the de-addiction centres," he said.

Sparjan Kumar said the order on home delivery was just a modality, as part of the earlier order issued by the government to provide liquor under prescription.

"We have worked out a modality. We have a meeting tomorrow. Some new order has been issued by the Centre today. The meeting will discuss the implementation of the orders," Kumar told.

A person showing withdrawal symptoms has to get a doctor's prescription on his condition so that he could be provided liquor in a "controlled manner", the order added.

The Indian Medical Association (IMA) has also come out against the government's move.

Meanwhile, Vimukthi, an anti-narcotics campaign launched by the state government, has till now admitted 64 patients since March 24.

"Since March 24, the day lockdown started, we have 64 patients admitted due to withdrawal symptoms. We have also registered at least 200 out patients at various de-addiction centres across Kerala," K Mohammed Resheed, Joint Excise Commissioner in charge of awareness told.

New Delhi, May 10: The Delhi government has asked district magistrates to release 2,446 Tablighi Jamaat members from quarantine centres and ensure that they do not stay in any other place except their homes.

The district magistrates will explore the possibility of sending those Tablighi members, who belong to other states, in buses to their designated places in accordance with social distancing norms and other protocols, DDMA Special CEO K S Meena said in a letter to deputy commissioners (administration).

As man as 567 foreign attendees of the congregation held in Delhi's Nizamuddin area in March, will be handed over to the police, Meena said.

"They (foreign Jamaat attendees) will be handed over to police in connection with several violations like visa violation," a government official said on Saturday.

Delhi Home Minister Satyendar Jain had recently ordered the release of Tablighi members who have completed their required quarantine period in centres and tested negative for COVID-19.

"Out of such people belonging to Delhi, who could be released as per prescribed guidelines should be issued passes to travel from the quarantine centres.

"Under no circumstances, the aforesaid persons should be allowed to stay in any other places including mosques," Meena said in the letter.

In respect of those Tablighi members belonging to other states, it should be ensured by the nodal officer and the area ACP that such people reach their place of residence, he also said.

"The DC should also inform the respective resident commissioner of their states in respect of each and every movement of such persons from Delhi," the Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) Special CEO said.

Thousands of Tablighi Jamaat members had been taken out of its Markaz (centre) in Nizamuddin, where they had gathered for a religious congregation, and quarantined as the area became a major hotspot after a number of members tested positive for coronavirus.

On March 31, the Delhi Police's Crime Branch had lodged an FIR against seven people, including Maulana Saad Kandhalvi, on a complaint by Station House Officer, Nizamuddin, for holding the congregation.