Am already 71; faced 13 elections so far... it’s time to retire: Siddaramaiah

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Bengaluru, Jun 27: Karnataka witnessed the biggest single-day spike in Covid cases on Saturday as 918 cases were recorded and 11 more deaths were linked to the pandemic. 

In Bengaluru alone, 596 more people tested positive for the infection in the last 24 hours as three more fatalities were also confirmed by the Department of Health and Family Welfare Services.

Following is the district wise tally:

Kodagu, Mar 19: One more person has tested positive for coronavirus in Kodagu on Thursday, taking the tally of confirmed cases in the state to 15.

The man has a travel history to Saudi Arabia.

"One person has tested positive for #COVID19 in Kodagu today; he has travel history to Saudi Arabia. He is being treated in an isolation hospital. Total number of positive cases reaches 15 in the state," said B Sriramulu, Karnataka Health Minister.

A total of 169 positive cases of coronavirus have been reported in India so far, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Thursday.

Globally, the virus has infected more than 184,000 people and killed more than 7500, as per the data available on the World Health Organisation website.