Amit Shah arrives in Kerala to attend 90th Mahasamadhi of Sree Narayana Guru

New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

Mar 5: The fourteen Italians, who have tested positive for coronavirus, have been shifted to the Medanta Hospital in Gurgaon from an ITBP quarantine centre.

The hospital issued a statement on Thursday morning, saying these patients are housed on a completely separate floor, which has been quarantined and has no contact with the rest of the hospital.

There is a dedicated medical team wearing protective gear looking after these patients.All items used on the floor are isolated to that floor.

The isolated floor will completely contain the disease even with these asymptomatic persons. All other hospital operations are operating as normal, and there is no increased risk to patients, visitors or staff, the statement said.

Twenty-one Italian tourists and their three Indian tour operators were shifted out from an ITBP quarantine centre here on Wednesday as they were exposed to novel coronavirus.

An affected Italian couple is being treated at Jaipur's SMS medical college.

Officials on Tuesday said the foreigners have been sent to a private hospital in Gurgaon and a centre in the national capital while the Indians have been transferred to the Safdarjung Hospital.

Fourteen Italians and an Indian (driver), who were in the same group as the affected Italian couple, tested positive for the virus as per information provided by the Health Ministry.

The Italian tourists and three Indians were admitted to the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) force centre in Chhawla on Tuesday.

The Centre already has 112 people, 76 Indians and 36 foreigners, since February 27 after they were evacuated by an Indian Air Force (IAF) plane from China's Wuhan, the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus.

The first samples of these 112 people had tested negative when reports came in last week.

Mar 28: A 69-year-old patient, hailing from Chullikal in Ernakulam District, passed away at Kalamasserry Medical College at 8:00am.

The patient had come from Dubai recently and was quarantined.

He arrived in Kerala on March 16 and was tested positive for Coronavirus on March 22, Medical College nodal officer A Fathahudeen said.

He was undergoing treatment for heart ailment and blood pressure. He had earlier undergone a bypass surgery.

Forty nine passengers in the flight he came are under quarantine.

A close relative and the driver who picked him up from the airport are coronavirus positive.

Since the deceased had no contact with any others in the state since his arrival, his route map was not processed.

Kerala reported 39 fresh cases of coronavirus on Friday, taking the total number of people under treatment to 164. The total number of confirmed cases from the state is 176, but, of this, 12 had recovered.

Of the 39 cases, 34 are from the worst affected northernmost district of Kasaragod, two from Kannur and one each from Thrissur, Kozhikode and Kollam.

With a positive case being reported from Kollam, all 14 districts in the state have been affected by the pandemic.

The worst affected Kasaragod has 76 positive cases, the highest and most of the affected are Non Resident Keralites from the Gulf.

A total of 1,10,299 people are under surveillence and 616 are in isolation wards of various hospitals.