Amit Shah arrives in Kerala to attend 90th Mahasamadhi of Sree Narayana Guru

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Pune, Jan 1: Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi president Prakash Ambedkar paid tributes at the 'Jay Stambh' near here on Wednesday on the 202nd anniversary of Koregaon Bhima battle.

Lakhs of people congregate every year at the 'Jay Stambh' (victory pillar) near Koregaon Bhima village to offer tributes on the anniversary of the battle, which was fought on January 1, 1818 between the British East India Company and the Peshwa faction of the Maratha Confederacy.

Violence broke out during the bicentenary celebrations of the Koregaon Bhima battle on January 1, 2018 in which one person was killed and several others were injured.

Police have made elaborate security arrangements to ensure no untoward incident takes place during the congregation at the victory pillar, an official said.

Talking to reporters after visiting the victory pillar, Pawar said he came to offer tributes on behalf of the people of Maharashtra.

"This pillar has history and every year lakhs of people come here. Some untoward incidents took place two years ago, but the government is taking utmost care and elaborate police bandobast has been made here to ensure that no untoward incident takes place," he said.

Pawar also urged people to visit the war memorial in a peaceful manner.

"I appeal to people to come here and offer their tributes, but maintain peace and do not believe in rumours," the NCP leader said.

Prakash Ambedkar also offered his tributes at the victory pillar.

Pune Police last week issued notices to several people, including right-wing leaders Milind Ekbote and Sambhaji Bhide, and members of Kabir Kala Manch, barring them from entering the district for four days from December 29.

The notices, as part of preventive action, were issued to all those against whom cases were registered in connection with the violence two years ago.

Ekbote was arrested in March 2018 for allegedly instigating and orchestrating the violence around Koregaon Bhima.

Bhide was also booked and named in the FIR, but never arrested.

The police attributed the violence to the Elgar Parishad conclave held here on December 31, 2017, where provocative speeches were allegedly made.

They are also probing the alleged "Maoist link" of some activists to the Elgar Parishad conclave.

Several Dalit groups observe the anniversary of the Koregaon Bhima battle, in which the British defeated the Peshwas of Maharashtra.

The memorial, located at Perne village on Pune- Ahmednagar road, was constructed by the British in the memory of soldiers who died in the battle.

Dalit leaders commemorate the British victory as soldiers from the Mahar community were part of the East India Company's forces.

The Peshwas were Brahmins, and the victory is seen as a symbol of assertiveness by Dalits.

Kolkata, Jan 12: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said a section of the youth is being misguided about the Citizenship Amendment Act and asserted that it will not take away anybody's citizenship.

Modi also said whoever has faith in India and believes in its Constitution can become an Indian citizen.

“There are a lot of questions among the youth about the new citizenship law, and some are being misled by rumours around it... it is our duty to clear their doubts,” the PM said during an address at Belur Math in Howrah district.

“I want to make this clear again that the CAA is not about taking away anybody's citizenship, but about granting citizenship,” he added.

Modi said that some people with political interests are deliberately spreading rumours about the new citizenship law.

Lauding the youth for speaking against religious persecution of minorities, the prime minister said the energy of the country's young will form the basis of change in the 21st century. The PM is on a two-day visit to the city.