Amit Shah set to be named BJP president

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Jun 22: India's COVID-19 cases per lakh people is one of the lowest in the world despite its high population density, and the recovery rate has now reached almost 56 per cent, the Union Health Ministry said on Monday.

For every one lakh population, there are 30.04 coronavirus cases in India, while the global average is over three times at 114.67, the ministry said, referring to the WHO Situation Report 153, dated June 21.

“This low figure is thus a testimony to the graded, pre-emptive and pro-active approach the Government of India along with the states and UTs took for prevention, containment and management of COVID-19," the ministry said in a statement.

Citing the WHO Situation Report, the ministry said the US has 671.24 cases per lakh population, while Germany, Spain, Brazil and the UK have 583.88, 526.22, 489.42 and 448.86 cases per lakh population, respectively.

It said Russia has 400.82 cases per lakh people, while Italy, Canada, Iran and Turkey have 393.52, 268.98, 242.82 and 223.53, respectively.

Coming back to India, as on Monday morning, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 4,25,282 and the death toll at 13,699, according to figures issued by the ministry.

In its update issued at 8 AM Monday, the ministry said 9,440 COVID-19 patients recovered in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of recoveries to 2,37,195, a recovery rate of 55.77 per cent.

Presently, there are 1,74,387 active cases and all are under medical supervision, it said.

"The difference between the recovered patients and the active COVID-19 cases continues to widen. Today, the number of recovered patients has crossed the number of active patients by 62,808," the ministry said.

The COVID-19 testing infrastructure is continuously being ramped up and number of government labs has been increased to 723 and the private labs to 262, adding up to a total of 985, it said.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research, a total of 69,50,493 samples have been tested up to 21 June, 1,43,267 of them just on Sunday.

On Monday, the country added 14,821 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, pushing the tally to 4,25,282, while the death toll rose to 13,699 with 445 new fatalities reported till 8 am.

The country breached the four lakh-mark on Sunday, eight days after crossing three lakh COVID-19 cases. It has recorded 2,34,747 infections since June 1.

Monday was the 11th day in a row when the country registered over 10,000 cases.

New Delhi, Jun 25: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday hit out at Congress for "unceremoniously sacking" its spokesperson and said that leaders in the opposition party are "feeling suffocated".

To substantiate his point, Shah referred to the recent Congress Working Committee (CWC) meet in which senior members and younger members raised a few issues, however, they were "shut down".

Taking to Twitter, Shah posted two English dailies' articles titled -- "Not scared of PM Modi, but many in the party dodge him: Rahul at Congress Working Committee meet" and "Congress removes Sanjay Jha as party spokesperson after critical article".

Last week, Jha was dropped as AICC spokesperson and Abhishek Dutt and Sadhna Bharti appointed as National Media Panelist of Congress party.

"During the recent CWC meet, senior members and younger members raised a few issues. But, they were shouted down. A party spokesperson was unceremoniously sacked. The sad truth is - leaders are feeling suffocated in Congress," the Union Minister tweeted.

Meanwhile, Shah also targetted Congress on the completion of 45 years of emergency, which was imposed by former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on June 25, 1975 and asked the party to self introspect.

"As one of India's opposition parties, Congress needs to ask itself: Why does the Emergency mindset remain? Why are leaders who do not belong to 1 dynasty unable to speak up? Why are leaders getting frustrated in Congress? Else, their disconnect with people will keep widening," he wrote.