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New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, May 4: The government has not talked about charging anything from migrant labourers as 85 per cent of the transportation cost is borne by the railways and 15 per cent by state governments, the Centre said on Monday amid a row over the national transporter allegedly charging the workers for ferrying them home during the COVID-19-induced lockdown.

The government also said the process of transporting the stranded migrant labourers was being coordinated by states “except for one or two states”.

Asked if the migrant labourers were being charged for being ferried home, Joint Secretary at the Health Ministry Lav Agarwal said that as far as migrant labourers are concerned, the guidelines have clearly stated that under the infectious disease management one should stay where he or she is.

“Based on the request given from states for particular cases, permission was given to run special trains. Be it government of India or the Railways, we have not talked about charging from workers. Eighty-five per cent of the transportation cost is borne by the Railways, while states have to bear 15 per cent of the cost,” he told reporters.

“Based on the request of the states the process that started, under which limited number of stranded migrant labourers have to be transported for a particular reason, is being coordinated by the state governments, except for one or two states,” Agarwal said.

At the daily briefing on the COVID-19 situation, Agarwal also said that in the last 24 hours, 1,074 COVID-19 patients have recovered, the highest number of recoveries in one day.

The recovery rate stands at 27.52 per cent with 11,706 COVID-19 patients cured till now, he said.

Agarwal said in the last 24 hours, 2,553 novel coronavirus cases were reported, taking the number of overall cases to 42,533. The total number of active cases stands at 29,453, he said.

The joint secretary also said that the COVID-19 curve is relatively flat as of now and it was not right to talk in terms of when the peak would come.

“If we collectively work then the peak might not ever come, while if we fail in any way we might experience a spike in cases,” he said.

Amitabh Kant, Chairman of the Empowered Group dealing with civil society, NGOs, industries and international partners, said in 112 aspirational districts, “we worked with the collectors and in these 112 districts only 610 cases have been reported which is two per cent of the national level infection”.

In these 112 districts, 22 per cent of India's population resides, he said.

In a few districts like Baramulla, Nuh Rachi, Kupwara and Jaisalmer more than 30 cases have been reported, while in the rest of the places very few cases are there, Kant said.

Raipur, Jan 9: An outbreak of bird flu has been reported from a state-run poultry farm in Chhattisgarh's Korea district, prompting the authorities to cull over 15,000 birds and step up vigil on poultry birds within 10 km radius of the affected area, officials said on Thursday.

So far, 15,426 chickens and quails have been culled and 30,000 eggs destroyed after the highly contagious H5N1 virus was detected among birds at the poultry farm and hatchery in Baikunthpur town, located around 300 km from here, they said.

There has been no case of infection in humans so far due to the outbreak of avian influenza, they said.

"After some chickens and quails were found dead on December 7 last year in the farm, their samples were collected and sent to local laboratories for testing," Dr R S Baghel, deputy director, veterinary department, Korea, told news agency.

When the disease was not properly detected, samples were further sent to Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh where veterinarians suggested symptoms of chronic respiratory disease, following which their line of treatment was followed.

"Despite the treatment, the abnormal deaths of birds continued," Baghel said.

Later, the samples were sent to Bhopal-based National Institute of High-Security Animal Diseases where tests were found positive for the H5N1 virus on December 23, he said.

"Immediately after getting reports of bird flu, we took permission from the Korea district administration, as per the standard procedure, and culled all 15,426 birds (chickens and quails) and destroyed 30,000 eggs in the farm and its adjoining areas," the official said.

Of the total culled birds, nearly 641 chickens were being reared by locals within one km radius of the farm. The locals were given compensation for the culling of their birds, he said.

"We have completed the culling process and sealed the farm. After sanitising the area in 10 km of its radius, we submitted a report to the state's directorate of veterinary services on Wednesday," Baghel said.

"No human has been affected due to the outbreak and the situation is under control. We are waiting for further directives from the higher authorities," he said.

The official said for the next three months, they will be conducting surveillance in 10 km radius of the affected area during which blood samples of birds will be regularly sent to Bhopal for testing.

"We will continue our observation for next three months," he added.

Meanwhile, state veterinary services director C R Prasanna said, "No human has so far been affected due to avian influenza and workers at the poultry farm at Baikunthpur have been given medicines as a precautionary measure."

Nearly 40 villages fall within the purview of 10 km radius of the affected area from where random sampling of poultry birds will be done for next three months to check whether they are infected with avian influenza, he said.

"Necessary steps are being taken to prevent bird flu from spreading to other areas," he added.