Art 370 root cause of terrorism, says Amit Shah as RS clears resolution on J&K

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

Dubai, Apr 14: Around 2,500 Indians have approached Indian missions in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seeking help to be flown home during the ongoing coronavirus lockdown, top diplomats have said.

The Indian Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the Indian Consulate in Dubai together have received requests from "a little more than 1,000 individuals" while the latter has received an additional request from an employer who has laid-off around 1,000 Indian workers, reports Gulf News on Monday.

According to the Indian Ambassador to the UAE Pavan Kapoor, the missions have not been bombarded with mass requests from the people who wish to take an immediate flight home unlike widespread reports on social media.

Most of the individuals who have expressed their interest to return home are visitors and those who lost their jobs, he told Gulf News.

Consul General of India in Dubai, Vipul said his mission had received nearly 1000 requests via email and phone from people who want to return home.

"A majority of them are visit visa holders. On Sunday, we got information about another large group of around 1,000 Indian workers who have lost jobs. The employer has got in touch to know the options to send them back home as early as possible," he told Gulf News.

However, the diplomatic heads refuted unverified reports that claim tens of thousands of Indians were scrambling to fly home during the pandemic.

They added that the missions have been aiding hundreds of workers, who have been left in the lurch by their employers, with provisions.

The Indian government had said that flight services cannot be resumed during the lockdown period, which has now been extended till May 3.

Newsroom, Feb 7: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent statement that there is no detention camp in India is no more a lie. That doesn’t mean that there are no detention camps in the country, but the name of the camps have changed. 

In December, at a mega rally at Ramlila Maidan, meant to launch the BJP's campaign for the assembly elections in Delhi, Mr Modi had stated: “The rumour of detention centres being spread by the Congress and urban Naxals is totally false. This is being done with a bad intention to destroy the country, it’s filled with evil motives; this is a lie, lie, lie.” He had further claimed: “Neither are any of the country’s Muslims being sent to detention centres nor is there any detention centre in India”

In reality there are at least six detention camps in jails in Assam to house foreigners found staying in India illegally. A month prior to PM’s statement, Union minister of the state for home affairs Nityanand Rai had revealed that the six camps in Assam housed 1,043 foreigners — 1,025 Bangladeshis and 18 Myanmarese. Apart from these, at least ten new detention centres are coming up.

Outside Assam too, the Maharashtra government, under the then chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, had identified land for the state’s first detention centre for illegal immigrants.

Besides, in a case relating to illegal immigrants in Karnataka High Court in November this year, the Centre had told the court that it had written to all state governments in 2014 and sent a follow-up letter in 2018 to have detention centres to house foreign nationals illegally staying in India.

Karnataka’s first detention centre, apparently meant to lodge illegal immigrants and migrants overstaying in the country, is already open in Sondekoppa village on the outskirts of Bengaluru. The facility with several rooms, a kitchen and toilets has been kept ready on the directions of the government. 

Meanwhile, Union Minister of state for home Nityanand Rai has told the Lok Sabha that the name "detention centre" has now been changed to "holding centre".