ASEAN Summit: Is India serious about regional trade pact?

Agencies
November 19, 2018

Singapore, Nov 19: If you were here in Singapore for the first time on a brief visit last week, you could be excused for wondering if it's normal for thousands of police officers to be patrolling the streets and for scores of Special Operations Command and other police vehicles to be parked all over the city. You may also be wondering if traffic is always really this bad.

Actually, no. Singapore is typically very safe and the police is usually not seen much. Neither will you hear sirens piercing the air every few minutes like in some other cities. And it's uncommon for traffic jams to occur.

Last week, besides the leaders of the 10 ASEAN countries, some of world's top leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Premier Li Keiqiang, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and United States Vice President Mike Pence were in Singapore for the ASEAN Summit. Hence, the stepped-up security.

The world leaders who came, see this as a fantastic and convenient opportunity to meet at the sidelines of the summit to discuss bilateral issues especially ahead of the APEC Summit which takes place in Papua New Guinea immediately after the ASEAN conference. For example, President Putin met with Japan PM Abe as well as Vice President Pence. President Putin's attendance also allowed him to project Russia's desire to be a global influencer and show their willingness to engage with the region especially in economic matters.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN is a regional intergovernmental organisation made up of 10 countries to promote and facilitate cooperation mainly in trade but also in security matters, education and culture integration and exchange. Meetings at various levels are held regularly with its secretariat located in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Together, ASEAN forms a market of US$2.6 trillion with a population of 622 million people. It is collectively the third largest economy in Asia after China and Japan and seventh largest in the world.

At the moment, the over-arching economic objective for the group is to achieve full economic integration by way of a single market fully connected with the global economy by 2025. Called the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), it is a free trade zone copying the European Union model loosely.

In his opening address as Chairman of ASEAN, a title and responsibility which rotates among the countries every year, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said: "The international order is at a turning point. The existing free, open and rules-based multilateral system which has underpinned ASEAN's growth and stability, has come under stress. Countries, including major powers, are resorting to unilateral actions and bilateral deals, and even explicitly repudiating multilateral approaches and institutions."

Unsurprisingly, global trade uncertainties was one of the key subjects discussed at the summit.

However, the main economic topic on the agenda was the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP). Other than the ASEAN countries, this agreement brings together China, Japan South Korea and, also Australia, New Zealand and India.

If completed, the RCEP will be the largest such trade agreement since the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which was implemented in 1948. It will encompass 25 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) of US$25 trillion, 45 per cent of the total population, 30 per cent of global income and 30 per cent of global trade. Many were expecting it to be wrapped up this year but at the summit it was announced that it will be delayed till 2019. Leaders at the summit, however, were quick to emphasise that negotiations are at its final stage.

The pact is seen as vital in securing the region's continued prosperity, especially after a trade war broke out between its vital trading partners, US and China.

Although Prime Minister Modi urged an early conclusion to RCEP talks, it is not clear at this stage what level of commitment India has in participating. The RCEP is a traditional trade pact which cuts tariffs on tradable goods whereas India's strength is in the services sector. India is believed to be holding up for better market access for its professionals and to the services sector than is currently offered.

India also complained that imports to India from ASEAN has grown faster than Indian exports to the bloc. New Delhi is reluctant to cut tariffs and open its markets in the face of strong opposition from its farming as well as steel and textiles industries. The dilemma facing India is exacerbated by the fact that strategic rival China is part of the agreement although China is an important trading partner as well.

On the other hand, ASEAN nations are increasingly investing in India, including in ports, highways, townships and food processing. It was noted at the summit that with the Modi government improving ease of doing business, investment and trade with ASEAN has grown. Despite good progress being made on the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway with an extension to Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, ASEAN has called for better maritime, air, land and digital connectivity between ASEAN and India.

With the Indian general elections expected next year, the RCEP negotiations come at a sensitive time for PM Modi.

India is the sixth largest trading partner of ASEAN having signed the India-ASEAN FTA (free trade agreement) in 2010 and bilateral trade is valued at US$80 billion but this is seen by economists as far short of its true potential.

PM Lee of Singapore urged India to be part of RCEP saying: "Together with the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area, we hope that this will help us reach the ASEAN-India trade target of US$200 billion in total trade by 2022."

If India can address its national interests through the on-going talks, the RCEP is a promising vehicle that can help a reluctant India which traditionally shies away from trade pacts, expands its markets through incorporation into a truly open trading bloc.

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Agencies
January 11,2020

Washington, Jan 11: US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing another set of crippling sanctions against Iran, targeting several of its top leaders, military commanders, and its infrastructure industry, according to a statement from the White House on Friday.

Trump said the executive order authorises the imposition of sanctions against any individual or entity operating in the construction, manufacturing, textiles, or mining sectors of the Iranian economy or anyone assisting those who engage in this sanctioned business.

The sanctions are the latest in a series of retaliatory measures between the two nations.

Iran's powerful military commander Qasem Soleimani was killed last Friday in US drone strikes, ordered by President Trump, bringing the entire Gulf region close to a full-blown conflict.

Regional tensions remained high after Iran on Wednesday fired missiles at two bases in Iraq used by US forces.

"Today, I am holding the Iranian regime responsible for attacks against United States personnel and interests by denying it substantial revenue that may be used to fund and support its nuclear program, missile development, terrorism and terrorist proxy networks, and malign regional influence," said Trump on Friday, after signing the executive order.

"This order will have a major impact on the Iranian economy, authorising powerful secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions.

"The Iranian regime has threatened United States military service members, diplomats, and civilians, as well as the citizens and interests of our allies and partners, through military force and proxy groups. The United States will continue to counter the Iranian regime's destructive and destabilising behaviour," the president said.

Trump said the economic sanctions will remain till the Iranian regime changes its behaviour.

Earlier at a White House news conference, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, along with cabinet colleague Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said the US will continue its economic and diplomatic sanctions on Iran till Tehran announces it will not pursue the nuclear weapons program and stop its destabilising behaviour in the region.

The eight senior Iranian regime officials against whom sanctions have been issued include Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, the Deputy Chief of Staff of Iranian armed forces, and Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij militia of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The sanction on the Iranian officials would mean denial of visa to the US and seizure of assets, among others.

In addition, the treasury designated 17 Iranian metals producers and mining companies, a network of three China-and Seychelles-based entities, and a vessel involved in the purchase, sale, and transfer of Iranian metals products, as well as in the provision of critical metals production components to Iranian metal producers.

"The United States is targeting senior Iranian officials for their involvement and complicity in Tuesday's ballistic missile strikes," Mnuchin said.

"We are also designating Iran's largest metals manufacturers, and imposing sanctions on new sectors of the Iranian economy including construction, manufacturing, and mining. These sanctions will continue until the regime stops the funding of global terrorism and commits to never having nuclear weapons," he added.

Pompeo told reporters that Iran was planning "broad, large-scale attacks" against American interests in the Middle East, including embassies.

The latest round of sanctions are aimed at striking at the heart of Iran's internal security apparatus, he said.

"The president has been very clear: we will continue to apply economic sanctions until Iran stops its terrorist activities and commits that it will never have nuclear weapons," Mnuchin said.

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News Network
April 12,2020

Apr 12: India and other South Asian countries are likely to record their worst growth performance in four decades this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, the World Bank said on Sunday.

The South Asian region, comprising eight countries, is likely to show economic growth of 1.8 per cent to 2.8 per cent this year, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report, well down from the 6.3 per cent it projected six months ago.

India's economy, the region's biggest, is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the fiscal year that started on April 1. The World Bank has estimated it will grow 4.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

"The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis," the World Bank report said.

Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see sharp falls in economic growth.

Three other countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives - are expected to fall into recession, the World Bank said in the report, which was based on country-level data available as of April 7.

Measures taken to counter the coronavirus have disrupted supply chains across South Asia, which has recorded more than 13,000 cases so far - still lower than many parts of the world.

India's lockdown of 1.3 billion people has also left millions out of work, disrupted big and small businesses and forced an exodus of migrant workers from the cities to their homes in villages.

In the event of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warned of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

To minimize short-term economic pain, the Bank called for countries in the region to announce more fiscal and monetary steps to support unemployed migrant workers, as well as debt relief for businesses and individuals.

India has so far unveiled a $23 billion economic plan to offer direct cash transfers to millions of poor people hit by its lockdown. In neighbouring Pakistan, the government has announced a $6 billion plan to support the economy.

"The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes," said senior World Bank official Hartwig Schafer.

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News Network
February 6,2020

Washington, Feb 6: U.S. president Donald Trump drew on staunch Republican support to defeat the gravest threat yet to his three-year-old presidency on Wednesday, winning acquittal in the Senate on impeachment charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Only the third U.S. leader ever placed on trial, Trump readily defeated the Democratic-led effort to expel him from office for having illicitly sought help from Ukraine to bolster his 2020 re-election effort.

Trump immediately claimed "victory" while the White House declared it a full "exoneration" for the president -- even as Democrats rejected the acquittal as the "valueless" outcome of an unfair trial.

Despite being confronted with strong evidence, Republicans stayed loyal and mustered a majority of votes to clear the president of both charges -- by 52 to 48 on abuse of power and 53 to 47 on obstruction of Congress -- falling far short of the two-thirds supermajority required for conviction.

"Two thirds of the senators present not having found him guilty of the charges contained therein, it is therefore ordered and adjudged that the said Donald John Trump be, and he is hereby, acquitted," said Supreme Court chief justice John Roberts, who presided over the trial.

The months-long impeachment of the 45th US leader shone a harsh light on America's political divide, with Trump's core support base united behind him in rejecting it as a "hoax."

One Republican, senator Mitt Romney, a longtime Trump foe, risked White House wrath to vote alongside Democrats on the first count, saying Trump was "guilty of an appalling abuse of public trust." He voted not guilty on the second charge.

But the verdict was never truly in question since the House of Representatives formally impeached Trump in December, and has now cleared out a major hurdle for the president to fully plunge into his campaign for re-election in November.

Trump to speak Thursday

Responding to the verdict, Trump announced he would deliver a formal statement Thursday from the White House "to discuss our Country's VICTORY on the Impeachment Hoax!"

Shortly before, the president tweeted a montage depicting a fake cover of Time magazine declaring him president for all eternity.

The White House declared that Trump had obtained "full vindication and exoneration."

But Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker and top Democrat in Congress, said that by clearing Trump, the Republicans had "normalized lawlessness."

"There can be no acquittal without a trial, and there is no trial without witnesses, documents and evidence," she said.

"Sadly, because of the Republican Senate's betrayal of the Constitution, the president remains an ongoing threat to American democracy, with his insistence that he is above the law and that he can corrupt the elections if he wants to."

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said the acquittal was "virtually valueless" since Republicans refused witnesses at his trial.

'Forever impeached'

The Democrats' intense 78-day House investigation faced public doubts and high-pressure stonewalling from the White House.

Concerned about the political risk for the party, Pelosi rejected a call early last year to impeach Trump on evidence compiled by then-special counsel Robert Mueller that he had obstructed the Russia election meddling investigation.

But her concerns melted after new allegations surfaced in August that Trump had pressured Ukraine for help for his 2020 campaign.

Though doubtful from the outset that they would win support from Republicans, an investigation amassed with surprising speed strong evidence to support the allegations.

The evidence showed that from early in 2019, Trump's private lawyer Rudy Giuliani and a close political ally, Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, were scheming to pressure Kiev to help smear Democrats, including Trump's potential 2020 rival Joe Biden, by opening investigations into them.

"We must say enough -- enough! He has betrayed our national security, and he will do so again," Adam Schiff, who led the House investigation, argued on the Senate floor this week.

"He has compromised our elections, and he will do so again," Schiff said.

'Colossal' mistake

In the trial, Trump's defence was not seen as having undermined the facts compiled by Schiff's probe, and several Republican senators acknowledged he did wrong.

But his lawyers and Senate defenders argued, essentially, that Trump's behaviour was not egregious enough for impeachment and removal.

And, pointing to the December House impeachment vote, starkly along party lines, they painted it as a political effort to "destroy the president" in an election year and insisted voters should be allowed to decide Trump's fate.

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said impeachment will benefit Republicans.

"Right now this is a political loser for them. They initiated it. They thought this was a great idea. At least for the short term, it has been a colossal political mistake."

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