Ashok Gehlot is Rajasthan CM; Sachin Pilot accepts deputy’s post

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Kozhikode, Apr 28: The remains of seven people who died in the Gulf countries were airlifted from Dubai by a cargo flight which arrived here Tuesday, ending the uncertainty over bringing back the bodies of those who died following non-Covid-19 reasons.

Airport sources said the flight reached the airport by around noon.

The bodies include natives of Kerala, one each of people from Goa and Sivaganga in Tamil Nadu.

"Karipur in among the few airports where cargo flights are operating in South India.

This is the reason why the bodies of those belonging to Goa and Sivaganga and other parts of Kerala have all been brought here for onward transport to respective destinations by road," an airport official said.

"As per information received from the airport, the bodies are of John Johannan of Kollam, David Shamy of Punnakkal, Kannur, Sathyan of Cheranelloor, Thrissur, O C Mathai and Sijo Joy, both of Pathanamthitta, Sreenivasan of Sivaganga and Henrick D Soza of South Goa," said Thomas, Assistant Sub Inspector, Special Branch CID, Malappuram.

Special passes have been issued to ambulances to transport the bodies to their destinations after the formalities at the airport are over, a senior police officer said.

There had been some confusion on bringing back the bodies from the Gulf region for about a week for want of clearance from the embassy authorities.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week seeking his intervention in ensuring that bodies of Keralites, who die in Gulf countries due to no non COVID-19 reasons, should be broughtto the state without any delay forenabling family members to perform their last rites.

Vijayan also wanted Modi to direct Indian Embassies to issue necessary clearances without seeking individual approvals from the Ministry of Home Affairs and avoid any delay.

The mortal remains are now being broughtin cargo planes as passenger flights are not being operated due to the COVID-19 lockdown.