Athira returns home as Ayisha after High Court upholds her right to follow Islam

Bengaluru, Apr 28:  Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa today launched a Helpline service for Kannadigas residing outside Karnataka.

On April 24, Dakshina Kannada district in-charge Minister Kota Srinivas Poojary in a letter to the Chief Minister requested a helpline for stranded Kannadigas in Mumbai, other States and other countries.

The helpline will help resolve the problem of stranded Kannadigas across the country. After a request is made, local authorities of the caller will be contacted to provide the required help. The helpline will be operated from Bengaluru and staffed with 50 employees in three shifts.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Bengaluru, Jul 4: Amid the rising COVID-19 cases in the state, the Karnataka COVID-19 Task Force has decided to set up booth-level committees across the state including 8,800 here for effective monitoring and surveillance.

The task force also released detailed guidelines for home isolation for asymptomatic cases including 17 days ''home isolation'' for patients below 50 years of age. It also warned of legal action against those health workers for disrespect to the bodies.

Briefing reporters after the meeting on Friday, Medical Education Minister Dr K Sudhakar said the local management will be strengthened for effective monitoring and surveillance of COVID-19 cases. "There will be booth-level task force committees throughout the state right from the village to Bengaluru.

These task force committees will act at the ultra local level. The task force will act as a structural and functional unit of COVID-19 dealing with monitoring, surveillance, checking of all the ILI cases, ambulances and hospitals," he added.

He also said the committees will comprise one member each from the Health department, police department, municipalities or Panchayat, volunteers, valveman. The committee will have five to six members.

The principal secretary in the Village Development and Panchayat Raj department L K Ateeq has been appointed as the nodal officer to manage the task force in the rural areas whereas in the urban areas, the Urban Development secretary, the municipal administration directors and the municipal commissioner will form the local task force.

"In Bengaluru alone 8,800 teams will be formed, which will be coterminous with the 8,800 booths in the city. They will provide the real-time data. They will be imparted training," the minister added. Noting that there were about 8,800 electoral booths in Bengaluru city and each booth will have a task force committee, he said a nodal officer has been appointed to oversee this.

The state level task force also came out with a slew of conditions. As far as home isolation is concerned, it would apply for patients who are below 50 years and have no symptoms of any other disease, and their homes should have a toilet and have an attendant.

He also said home isolation duration has been increased from 14 to 17 days. "People should not get fever in the next three days after completing 14 days, else they will be quarantined for another seven days. If they don''t get fever then they will be freed to perform their personal activities," Sudhakar said.

Those who are above 50 years and have comorbidities, will be treated at the COVID care centres only and they will be under medical supervision and be subjected to regular tests. The state is also making arrangements for telecommunication for those who are asymptomatic but wish to speak to a doctor.

It was also decided to have at least two ambulances in each of the 198 wards of Bengaluru. The minister said the additional commissioner of police (traffic) will be the nodal officer to coordinate the movement of ambulances. The task force has also appointed a nodal officer to manage the hospitals based on the availability of beds and ventilators. The officer will provide real time information about beds.

"We want to make sure that no one has to run from one hospital to another," Sudhakar said. On the cremation of the bodies, Sudhakar said guidelines have been issued on how to handle bodies at mortuaries, taking them in the ambulances, human treatment to the deceased while performing the last rites and fumigation of the bed. "Legal action will be taken against those who treat bodies in an inhuman way," Sudhakar said.

The state-level task force has also decided to arrange for test reports within 24 hours. It has also been decided to increase the testing capacity from the existing 15,000 a day to 25,000. In view of the spurt in COVID-19 cases, the task force also recommended antigen tests in crowded areas to check whether there was community spread.

To a question on closing down the border, the minister said there is no question of lockdown. "We cannot hide from this disease. It is not a solution. We have to live with it now, yet maintain a distance from it," he added. Sudhakar, who is a doctor himself, said COVID-19 is not as deadly a virus as those he had seen in the past and asked people not to be scared of it.