Australia PM, Muslim leaders spar over his terror barb

New Delhi, Feb 4: The investigation into the incident of violence at Jamia Millia Islamia during an anti-citizenship law protest was at a crucial stage, the Centre told the Delhi High Court on Tuesday.

The submission before a bench of Chief Justice D N Patel and Justice C Hari Shankar was made by Solicitor General Tushar Mehta while seeking more time to file a report regarding the probe.

Taking note of the submission, the bench granted the Centre time till April 29 to file a reply.

During the hearing, senior advocate Colin Gonsalves, appearing for some students of Jamia, said 93 students and teachers filed complaints about alleged attacks on them by police but no FIR has been filed against the agency till date.

The other lawyers for the petitioners alleged that the government has not complied with the court order to file a response within four weeks of the last date of hearing on December 19.

The bench, however, declined to pass any interim order and granted time till April 29 to the government to file a reply.

Bidar, Jan 31: In a disturbing development, the police have arrested two women – a schoolteacher and mother of two students – in connection with staging a play against the Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens at a prestigious school in Karnataka’s Bidar.

The arrested have been identified as Farida Begum, headmistress of Shaheen Urdu Medium Primary School, and Navida, the mother of a student who played a role in the play.

The development comes days after police filed a sedition case against the management of Shaheen School following a complaint lodged by the ABVP claiming that play contained objectionable dialogues against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The drama was performed during an annual function of the school on January 21.

Bidar SP Sreedhara T confirmed the arrest of Farida Begum and Navida, and said the accused were remanded to judicial custody on Thursday.

Sreedhara said that based on the complaint by one Neelesh Rakshal, the police filed an FIR under sedition charges, initially against the headmistress and management of the school on Saturday. He said that the police have questioned about 50 people, including the members of the management committee of Shaheen Urdu Medium Primary School, staff of the school, audience, parents and students. Based on the statements and evidence, the headmistress and the parent have been arrested.

The SP said that as per the statements and evidence collected, they came to know that the headmistress played a major role in organising the controversial play. The students practised the drama for a week and the headmistress knew about its script containing controversial dialogues against the Prime Minister and senior BJP leaders.

Considering this, she has been booked for creating communal disharmony and abetting sections. The SP said that when a dialogue of slapping the Prime Minister was said on the stage, Navida gave her chappals to the child, to be used while saying the dialogue. She has been arrested for abetting.

Expressing shock over sedition case and arrests, Dr Abdul Qadeer, the chairman of Shaheen Group of Institutions, said that the school management would fight out legally.

About Shaheen Group

Founded by Dr Abdul Qadeer, Shaheen Group has spread its wings through nine states of India and runs 43 institutions and related units. It has also been running a unique course for Huffaz named as ‘Hifz Ul Quran Plus’ in which Huffaz are prepared to appear and excel in competitive exams (NEET-JEE(IIT)).

According to Dr Qadeer, Shaheen’s mission is to engage, educate and empower wards, equipping them with strengths to enter the world of opportunities through free education across various domains in state- owned academic centers of excellence.

The group also runs coaching centers for medical and engineering entrance examinations. So far 1,200 students from the Shaheen Group of institutions got seats in government medical colleges, he said.

‘Hifz Ul Quran Plus’ course was for huffaz between 12 and 17 years. A four-year integrated course is conducted for Huffaz-E-Karam for getting students modern education. By pursuing this course and by appearing in competitive exams (NEET-IIT JEE), Huffaz will be able to get admission into MBBS, BE, & MBA, he said.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.