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Bengaluru, June 22: Even as the covid-19 positive cases are steadily increasing in Karnataka, an expert has claimed that community transmission has begun in Bengaluru and cases could keep rising over the next two months.

“If you look at the natural course of this virus across countries around the world, it is about six months. Now we’re in the fourth month. This will go on for another two months. It also sounds like this is the beginning of the peak. There is also a possibility of the number of cases going up from now on. Even across India, cases are increasing,” says Dr CN Manjunath, director of Sri Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences and Research and State Task Force member.

Besides the increase in number of cases, the virus is advancing silently, stealthily. A lot of people who are testing positive are asymptomatic. In areas like Padarayanapura, Nanjangud and many places in north Karnataka, there have been positive cases who have not had any contact with infected individuals. Some cases recorded in Bengaluru over the last two to three days have not had any contact with Covid-positive people.

Dr Manjunath adds: “We are in community transmission. This will happen because nature is ahead of everything. We have to take all possible precautionary measures at our command. This has to happen. Only then some kind of herd immunity will be developed.”

“We are expanding the guidelines of testing to include a large number of people to be tested. Now, according to the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines, only symptomatic Influenza like Illness (ILI) or Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI), or a person coming in contact with an infected person are being tested.

But since we have crossed 100 days in Karnataka from the first reported case and we’re getting cases with no travel history or contact with a Covid-positive person, we have to start random testing across the sub-group population. Only then will we understand the burden of the disease and what precautions need to be taken,” he says.

Mangaluru, May 2: Ibrahim Musliyar Bekal, a prominent Muslim religeous leader in coastal Karnataka has urged the Dakshina Kannada district administration not to end the covid-19 lockdown before the end of the blessed month of Ramadan. 

The appeal comes in the wake of reports that the state government may allow opening of clothe shops during the month of Ramadan to felicitate Muslims for Eid shopping.

"Muslims in the district have completely cooperated with the district administration in making the lockdown sucessfull. They have refrained from going to mosque even for Juma and Taraveeh during Ramadan. Such a lockdown is necessary to contain the pandemic," said Musliyar, who is also the Khazi of Udupi and Chikkamagaluru.

If the district administration withdraws lockdwon or relaxes it, people in large numbers may storm cloth shops wherein it physical distancing will be difficult, Musliyar warned.

He said that Muslims in the region have decided to observe Eid ul Fitr, a festival which marks the end of the blessed month, in a simple way maintaining physical distance. Hence the lockdown should be relaxed only after the festival, he suggested.

The deadly coronavirus that entered India while there was still nip in the air has beaten rising mercury, humid conditions, unique Indian genome and has entered monsoon season with more potency as fresh cases are only breaking all records in the country.

India recorded a single-day spike of record 24,850 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, taking its total tally to 6.73 lakh corona-positive cases.

Top Indian microbiologists were hopeful in March that after the 21-day lockdown, as summer approaches, the rise in temperature would play an important role in preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19 virus in India.

Several virologists hinted that by June this year, the impact of COVID-19 would be less than what it appeared in March-April.

The claims have fallen flat as the virus is mutating fast, becoming more potent than ever.

According to experts, the novel coronavirus is a new virus whose seasonality and response to hot humid weather was never fully understood.

"The theory was based on the fact that high temperatures can kill the virus as in sterilisation techniques used in healthcare. But these are controlled environment conditions. There are many other factors besides temperature, humidity which influence the transmission rate among humans," Dr Anu Gupta, Head, Microbiologist and Infection Control, Fortis Escorts Heart Institute, told IANS.

There is no built-up immunity to COVID-19 in humans.

"Also, asymptomatic people might be passing it to many others unknowingly. New viruses tend not to follow the seasonal trend in their first year," Gupta emphasized.

Globally, as several countries are now experiencing hot weather, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a record hike in the number of coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 2,12,326 in 24 hours in the highest single-day increase since COVID-19 broke out.

So far over 11 million people worldwide have tested positive for the disease which has led to over 5,25,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The US remained the worst-hit country with over 28 lakh cases, followed by Brazil with 15.8 lakh.

According to Sandeep Nayar, Senior Consultant and HOD, Respiratory Medicine, Allergy & Sleep Disorders, BLK Super Speciality Hospital in New Delhi, whether temperature plays a role in COVID-19 infection is highly debated.

One school of thought said in the tropical regions of South Asia, the virus might not thrive longer.

"On the other hand, another school of thought has found that novel Coronavirus can survive in a hot and humid environment and tropical climate does not make a difference to the virus. According to them, this is what distinguishes the novel coronavirus from other common viruses, which usually wane in hot weather," stressed Nayar.

Not much has been studied in the past and no definite treatment or vaccine is available to date.

"Every day, new properties and manifestation of the disease come up. As of now, the only way to prevent this monster is by taking appropriate precautions. Hand hygiene, social distancing, cough etiquette and face masks definitely reduce spread of COVID-19 infection," Nayar told IANS.

Not just top Indian health experts, even Indian-American scientists had this theory in mind that sunshine and summer may ebb the spread of the coronavirus.

Ravi Godse, Director of Discharge Planning, UPMC Shadyside Pennsylvania in the US told IANS in April: "In the summer, the humidity can go up as well, meaning more water drops in the air. If the air is saturated with water and somebody sneezes virus droplets into such air, it is likely that the droplets will fall to the ground quicker, making them less infectious. So the short answer is yes, summer/sunshine could be bettera.

According to Dr Puneet Khanna, Head of Respiratory Medicine and Pulmonology, Manipal Hospital, Delhi, COVID-19 death rates are not too different in tropical countries but since the disease affected them late it was yet to show its peak in these areas.

"The virus can survive well in hot and humid countries and this is proven now," he stressed.