Better to fight war with Pakistan than suffer daily: Ramdev

New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

New Delhi, May 13: With an increase of 3,525 COVID-19 cases reported in the last 24 hours, India's tally of positive coronavirus cases rises to 74,281 cases, as of Wednesday, said the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The tally is inclusive of 47,480 patients who are active coronavirus cases and 24,385 patients who have been cured/discharged and one patient migrated.

With an increase of 122 deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the last 24 hours, the number of deaths in the country now stands at 2,415.

According to the ministry, Maharashtra has the most number of positive COVID-19 cases with 24,427 positive cases that include 5,125 patients recovered and 921 fatalities.

Gujarat has reported 8,903 COVID-19 cases inclusive of 3,246 recovered patients and 537 deaths due to the coronavirus.

Tamil Nadu reported 8,718 positive coronavirus cases with 2,134 patients recovering from the disease and 61 succumbing to the infection.

Delhi's tally of COVID-19 cases stands at 7,639 cases with 2,512 patients recovering and 86 patients died due to coronavirus.

Meanwhile Arunachal Pradesh (one case reported--now recovered), Goa (seven cases reported--all seven recovered), Manipur (two cases reported--both recovered) and Mizoram (one case reported--now recovered) have reported no new cases of COVID-19.