Bhupinder Hooda is illiterate like Rahul Gandhi: Subramanian Swamy

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Shimla, Apr 19: A man, who had recovered from the novel coronavirus, was again found suffering from the infection in Himachal Pradesh, officials said.

The man, a Tablighi Jamaat member, tested positive for the infection on Saturday within a week of his two reports coming out negative, they said.

Residents of different places in Mandi district, the man along with two other Jamaatis had been staying in a mosque of Nakroh village in Una'a Amb tehsil and all tested positive on April 2.

They were admitted to Tanda's Dr. Rajendra Prasad Government Medical College (RPGMC) in Kangra district on April 3.

As per the available information, they had tested negative for the first time on April 10 and they were declared as cured as per protocol after they tested negative for the second time on April 12.

Subsequently they had been discharged from the RPGMC and were kept in institutional quarantine.

However, with the man again testing positive, the total number of active cases in the hill state has increased to 23 out of the total 40 positive cases.

Four persons have been shifted to a private hospital outside the state. Eleven have recovered while two others have died.

A total of 16 confirmed cases were found in Una and health department statistics now shows 14 active cases and two cured.

Officials said 11 patients — three each from Chamba, Kangra, and Solan districts and two from Una district — have recovered.

New Delhi, Apr 22: The number of COVID-19 cases in India reached 20,471on Wednesday, with Maharashtra continuing to be the worst-hit state.

Out of the total number of cases, 15,859 are active cases, 3,959 cured or discharged and 652 deaths.

Maharashtra has reported the highest number of cases across the country, with the count at 5,221, followed by Delhi (2,156) and Gujarat (2,272). Maharashtra reported 251 deaths, the highest fatality rate than any other state.
Fresh cases were reported today from Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Kashmir among other states and UTs.

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved Rs 15,000 crore for 'India COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health System Preparedness Package'. The funds sanctioned will be utilised in three phases.

While Rs 7,774 crore has been provisioned for immediate COVID-19 emergency response, the rest would be used for medium-term support (1-4 years) to be provided under mission mode approach.

Briefing mediapersons about the package here on Wednesday, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said the key objectives of the package include mounting emergency response to slow and limit COVID-19 in India through the development of diagnostics and COV1D-dedicated treatment facilities, centralised procurement of essential medical equipment and drugs required for treatment of infected patients, strengthen and build resilient national and state health systems to support prevention and preparedness for future disease outbreaks.

Javadekar said that no decision has been taken so far regarding the resumption of flight operations.

"No decision has been taken yet on the resumption of flight operations. An announcement will be made on time as to when it will resume," Javadekar told reporters.
Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. Two Chinese manufactures of rapid antibody test, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co. Ltd and Zhuhai Livzon Diagnostics Inc are now the subject of investigations by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) as the rapid testing antibody kits of these two companies delivered results with wide variations and low accuracy.

2. Rajasthan Health Minister Raghu Sharma said that 735 doctors have recently been recruited and posted to hospitals in the state.

3. The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has settled 10.02 lakh claims, including 6.06 lakh COVID-19 cases, under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) in 15 working days.

4. Secretary of Overseas Indian Affairs in the Ministry of External Affairs, Vikas Swarup, interacted with envoys of nearly 30 Central European countries on Wednesday and shared thoughts on fighting COVID-19.

5. Taking cognisance of the need for essential services like plumbing during COVID 19 crisis, the Indian Plumbing Skills Council (IPSC) aligned to Skill India programme, under the aegis of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE), has prepared a database of over 900 plumbers who are ready to provide their services during the lockdown period across the country.

6. Braving all odds, workers of the Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA) are conducting door to door surveys in the Red Zones of Nagpur putting their lives at risk.

7. Aviation Minister Hardeep Puri on Wednesday said that Air India has lifted about 300 tonnes of essential medical cargo so far this month through China-India aerobridge. It is planned that Air India along with SpiceJet and Blue Dart will airlift another 220 tonnes of this critical cargo in the next three days.

8. Ministry of Railways has offered to supply 2.6 lakh meals daily from various railway kitchens wherever the district administration is willing and able to pick up cooked meals and distribute among the needy. This has been communicated to district authorities all over the country.

9. Uttarakhand Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat on Wednesday said that the state's COVID-19 doubling rate stands at 26.6 days and Uttarakhand ranks third in preventing coronavirus infection.

10. The Central government has brought an ordinance to end violence against health workers, making it a cognizable, non-bailable offence with imprisonment up to seven years for those found guilty.