BJP faced more adversities in independent India than Cong under British: Modi

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Srinagar, May 21: Two Border Security Force (BSF) personnel were killed and their weapons snatched by militants in the Pandach area on the outskirts of Srinagar yesterday.

According to IGP Kashmir Vijay Kumar, the two BSF jawans, who were on road surveillance deployment, were fired upon by two of the three terrorists on a motorcycle around 5:15 pm on the 90-Ft Road at Pandach, near Soura. 

They were critically injured and later succumbed to injuries. The terrorists escaped after taking away one AK rifle and one INSAS. Efforts were underway to trace the terrorists.

He said that two jawans, Constable Rana Mandol and Constable Ziaul Haque of ‘C’ company of 37th battalion, were injured and they later succumbed.

“The terrorists managed to take away the weapons of the martyrs. Area has been cordoned off and the search for the terrorists is on”, he said.

Residents around the spot said that the two soldiers were buying chicken for Iftar from a mutton dealer, around 300 meters away from their deployment location when three militants on a motorcycle stopped and opened fire on them.

Medical Superintendent SKIMS Dr Farooq Jan said that both the jawans were brought dead to the tertiary care hospital.

Senior Police officials said it was a “clear case of security lapse” as the two jawans had left their spot of deployment on Srinagar-Kargil-Leh road and gone to a shop 500 metres away on a different road.

They said that possibility of terror attacks and subsequently claims by the new outfit TRF had been flashed to all forces earlier this week.

The terror strike in the capital city has occurred a day after an encounter in downtown Srinagar, where two Hizbul Mujahideen militants, including the top wanted Junaid Sehrai, had been killed on Tuesday.

In the last one month, five Army and Police personnel and two militants had got killed in an encounter in Handwara area of Kupwara, a day before three CRPF men were killed in another attack.

Washington, Feb 12: US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would sign a trade deal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi if 'it was the right one'.

The two countries have been trying to reach a limited trade pact with lower tariffs, but talks have run into problems over issues with data privacy and e-commerce controls.

Trump further said that he is looking forward to his visit to India later this month where millions of people would welcome him. "He (Modi) is a great gentleman and I look forward to going to India. So, we'll be going at the end of the month," Trump told reporters in his Oval Office, a day after the White House announced dates of his anticipated India trip.

Responding to a question, the president indicated that he is willing to sign a trade deal with India if it is the right one. "They (Indians) want to do something and we'll see... if we can make the right deal, (we) will do it," said Trump, a fortnight ahead of his visit to the country as the 45th US president.

India's new Ambassador to the US, Taranjit Singh Sandhu told PTI that Trump's forthcoming visit is a "reflection of the strong personal rapport" between Trump and Modi. "It also demonstrates their strong desire to take the relationship to new heights," said Sandhu, who had presented his credentials to Trump in Oval Office last week.

Over the last three years, Trump and Modi have developed a personal friendship and in 2019, the duo met four times including their joint address before a strong 50,000 crowd of Indian Americans in Houston.

This year, they have spoken over the phone on two occasions, including the one over the weekend. "Just spoke with Prime Minister Modi," Trump told reporters on Tuesday in response to a question on his India visit.

Excited to travel to India later this month, said Trump referring to his conversation with Modi during which the prime minister apparently told him about the hundreds and thousands of Indians who would be there to welcome him in Ahmedabad.

Trump jokingly told reporters that now he will "not feel good" about the size of the crowd that he addresses in the US which is usually between 40,000 to 50,000. "He (Modi) said we will have millions and millions of people. My only problem is that last night we probably had 40 or 50,000 people... I'm not going to feel so good... There will be five to seven million people just from the airport to the new stadium (in Ahmedabad)," Trump said.

"And you know (it) is the largest stadium in the world. He's (Modi) building it now. It's almost complete and it's the largest in the world," Trump said. The two leaders are expected to joint address a massive public rally at the newly build Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad.

Being built at an estimated cost of USD 100 million, the Motera Stadium with a seating capacity of 100,000 spectators will be the world's largest cricket stadium overtaking the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia.