BJP leading in 16, PDP close behind in J-K in early trends

Mumbai, Jan 30: Speaking at an event, Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Abu Azmi's son and businessman, Farhan Azmi said that if CM Uddhav Thackeray will build lord Ram's Temple at Ayodhya then he will build Babri Masjid there. He said, "My problem is with Uddhav Thackeray.

I respect him a lot and if in Shiv Sena somebody really deserves respect, then it is no other than Uddhav Thackeray. He never runs a government and I don't think he is running his party correctly.

If being the Chief Minister, Uddhav Thackeray says he is going to Ayodhya on 7th March, I will also go with him. He will build lord Ram's Temple and we will build Babri Masjid."

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Feb 11: The Aam Aadmi Party on Tuesday appeared to be heading back to power for a second term in Delhi with the party leading in 52 seats of the 70 and the BJP ahead in 18 as votes for last week's assembly elections were counted, according to Election Commission figures. The contest for political power over the national capital was a bipolar one with the Congress nowhere in the reckoning, according to initial trends.

AAP supremo and chief minister Arvind Kejriwal was leading in the New Delhi seat by 4,300 seats, while his deputy Manish Sisodia from Patparganj seat was ahead by 102 votes.

BJP leader Vijender Gupta, who is also leader of opposition in the Delhi legislative assembly, was trailing by over 1,200 votes from Rohini.

As early celebrations broke out in the AAP headquarters in Rouse Avenue, BJP's Delhi unit chief Manoj Tiwari asked his party supporters not to lose hope.

"There are 27 seats where the difference of votes is between 700 to 1,000," Tiwari told reporters.

Looking ahead at victory, he said he was not nervous and was ready to take on the responsibilities that a win would bring.

"All talk is over. We have to wait for the blessings of the people. I am confident it will be a good day for BJP. We are coming to power in Delhi today. Don't be surprised if we win 55 seats," Tiwari said.

Kejriwal, who had led his party to a spectacular win of 67 of 70 seats in 2015, is expected to address party workers and the media later in the day. However, his party workers were upbeat and in celebratory mode.

"We have been saying since the beginning that the upcoming polls will be fought on the basis of work done by us... You wait and watch, we will register a massive win," AAP spokesperson Sanjay Singh told reporters.

"We hope we get such a clear majority that a message goes out that doing Hindu-Muslim politics will not work anymore," said AAP volunteer Fareen Khan at the party office.

The headquarters were decorated with blue and white balloons and big cutouts of Kejriwal were placed in different parts of the office.

Labour minister and AAP's Delhi unit convenor Gopal Rai was leading in Badarpur constituency by 1,994 votes.

Atishi, AAP's Kalkaji candidate, who was also instrumental in the transformation of Delhi government schools, was trailing by 190 votes.

AAP's Timarpur candidate Dilip Pandey was leading by over 1,500 votes.

BJP's Tajinder Singh Bagga was trailing on Hari Nagar seat by over 50 votes, while AAP's Raghav Chadha is leading from Rajinder Nagar constituency.

Congress' Chandni Chowk candidate Alka Lamba, who is sitting MLA from the constituency, was trailing by over 5,800 votes.

Counting centres are spread across 21 locations in 11 districts, including at the CWG Sports Complex in east Delhi, NSIT Dwarka in west Delhi, Meerabai Institute of Technology and G B Pant Institute of Technology in southeast Delhi, Sir CV Raman ITI, Dheerpur in central Delhi, and Rajiv Gandhi Stadium in Bawana in north Delhi.

The assembly elections were held on February 8.

A total of 672 candidates, including 593 men and 79 women, were in the fray for the hotly contested, often divisive polls with the anti-CAA protests in Shaheen Bagh occupying centrestage towards the end of the campaign.

While the AAP, of course, put forward Kejriwal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath were among those who extensively campaigned for the BJP.

The Congress, still recovering maybe from the death of its three-time Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit in July last year, got into campaign mode much later. Former prime minister Manmohan Singh and party leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi were among those who campaigned for the Congress.