New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.
According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.
"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.
The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.
Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.
Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.
Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.
He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.
The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.
The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.
India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31.
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dear HINDU Brothers And Dear Muslim Brothers kindly Aware of Amit shah dont listen his anit religious speech , his main intention is to divide hindus and muslims in mangalore like gujrath please tiz is my request with mangalorean public
Attention Mangaloreans: Plz hoard essential foods items, Mr.Amit shah on his way to Mangalore to create fasaad.
shah need beef chilly so visitng mangalore
Phir se aaraha hai mangalore me aag lagana, bechare hindu bhaiyion ku bhadka kar hindu muslim ke naam par jhagda karane aaraha hai...... bachke rehna bhayiyon mama aaraha hai
Amit shah suffering from poll fever
BJP will win in karnataka this time.. We will work for that..
Shah always comes with a hidden agenda
Great... we are waiting for the arrival. We are so honoured to welcome you
Shah's previous visit was not so effective. may be the same aim this time also
Communal shah visiting Mangalore to divide mangaloreans.. protest
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