BJP supremo Amit Shah to visit Mangaluru on Oct 4

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Jan 8: The all-India shutdown by trade unions and other organisations began with little impact in the tech city as normal life continued on a working day, an official said.

"No effect of shutdown in the city though banking operations are affected as bank staff are supporting the trade unions," a state official said here.

However, thousands of workers participated in other parts of Karnataka in the nation-wide shutdown call given by trade unions, protesting central government's anti-labour laws and privatisation policies.

Protesters were seen carrying the red trade union flags at several places such as Hassan, Chamarajanagar, Tumakuru, Mysuru, Bengaluru and others.

Massive protests were seen in Peenya, and Neelmangla areas of Bengaluru.

In Madikeri, stones were pelted at a bus and some protesters were detained in Kolar.

The trade unions are against the privatisation of railways and corporatisation of 49 defence production units.

Merging 44 labour laws into four code is also one of the demands of the protesting trade unions.

The protesters are demanding raising the minimum wage in the range of ₹21,000 - 24,000 per month.

The All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC), Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), Indian National Trade Union Congress and Labour Progressive Federation (LPF) have given an all-India shutdown (Bharat Bandh) call on Wednesday.

Karnataka Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa instructed the intelligence chief and additional director general of police Kamal Pant to maintain law and order in view of the Bharat bandh when he apprised him of the situation.

Police tightened security across the city by deploying 11 deputy commissioners of police (DCPs), 23 assistant commissioners of police (ACP), 111 inspectors, 316 sub-inspectors, 476 assistant sub-inspectors, 4,547 constables along with 82 platoons of Karnataka State Reserve Police (KSRP).

In Bengaluru city, Metro services were not affected by the nationwide strike. In view of the shutdown, security was beefed at the Metro stations.

Mangaluru, Jul 15: The Mangaluru city police arrested three people in connection with the murder of Adyar Gram Panchayat member Yaqoob, which took place on Friday last week. Personal enmity and financial issues are the reason behind the murder, said police.

The arrested accused are Shakir, Haneef and Shakir Ahmed, all residents of Adyar.

 According to police, the main accused Shakir, who was involved with the sand mafia and had other business interests had financial issues, and personal enmity with Yaqoob, a GP member backed by the BJP. 

The investigating officer said they were produced before the court through video conference. They have been remanded in police custody for undergoing testing for Covid-19. They will be again be produced before the court physically, only if they test negative.