Black money: SIT asks agencies to share data on ongoing case

New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

New Delhi, Apr 28: Nafisa Ali took to Instagram to share the inspiring story of her niece, Diya Naidu, who donated her plasma to help patients suffering from Covid-19 after recovering from the disease. The veteran actress shared a photo of her niece from the hospital bed and asked fans to read Diya's post to get a detailed account of her experience.

Nafisa wrote, "Diya Naidu my niece - a COVID19 hero - is back home after donating her plasma - looks like liquid gold - it’s value is priceless as it will save lives. So please read her COVID19 story and share the information that is first hand. It is the need of the hour. Help save lives. #diyanise. #diyanaidu #covid_19 #india (sic)."

Diya Naidu, who is a dancer and choreographer based in Bengaluru, revealed in her Instagram post that she has donated her plasma for other Covid-19 patients. She said that the method has been super effective wherever it's been tried.

Earlier, Nafisa Ali gave a shout-out to her niece on Instagram and penned a heartfelt note for her. She wrote, "I am so grateful to you brave child - a COVID19 warrior (living in Bangalore) has agreed to donate her plasma to help cure other COVID19 serious patients (sic)."

Explaining the process of plasma therapy to treat Covid-19 patients, she wrote, "The process of donating plasma to treat COVID-19 is not very complex and can be done in just two hours. One of the most discussed methods of treatment of the disease caused by the novel coronavirus is plasma therapy, which involves the transfusion of plasma from a convalescent coronavirus patient to a critical patient. The blood of a recovering patient is rich in antibodies produced by the body to fight the virus, which are expected to help the critical patient recover (sic)."

Plasma therapy has been suggested to treat people suffering from Covid-19. People, who have recovered from the disease, are donating plasma as it contains antibodies to fight the disease. Earlier, Kanika Kapoor, who was the first Bollywood celebrity to be diagnosed with the disease, also offered to donate her plasma. She has recovered from Covid-19 and is currently living with her family in Lucknow.

New Delhi, Apr 12: With 34 deaths and 909 new positive COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, the total number of coronavirus cases in India on Sunday climbed to 8356, including 716 cured and discharged and 273 deaths, said the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

At present, there are 7367 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

"A total number of COVID-19 positive cases rises to 8356 in India, including 716 cured/discharged, 273 deaths and 1 migrated," said the Health Department.

The highest number of positive cases of coronavirus was reported from Maharashtra at 1761, including 127 deaths, followed by Delhi (1069 and 19 deaths), Tamil Nadu (969 and 10 deaths) and Rajasthan (700 and 3 deaths).

There are 452 coronavirus positive cases in Uttar Pradesh, including 45 cured and discharged and 5 deaths.

The states which have crossed 200-mark for COVID-19 positive cases also include Madhya Pradesh (532), Telangana (504), Gujarat (432), Andhra Pradesh (381) and Kerala (364).

While 19 people were detected positive for coronavirus in Chandigarh, 207 cases were confirmed from Jammu and Kashmir and 15 from Ladakh.

In North-East, Assam has confirmed the highest number of corona positive cases at 29, followed by Manipur and Tripur at two each and Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh at one each.