Blow of higher utility bills softened for low-income Saudis

December 24, 2016

Jeddah, Dec 24: Saudi Arabia spends billions on subsidies — so economists were hardly suprised when Thursday’s budget confirmed plans to raise energy and water prices to be more in line with market rates.

family

But what was an innovative move was the accompanying “Household Allowance” scheme, which is designed to soften the blow of the rate increases for some of the Kingdom’s most needy residents.

The Kingdom’s subsidies, or “energy benefits”, reached close to SAR 300 billion in 2015, when energy and water accounted for about 80 percent of the overall subsidies, the government’s “Fiscal Balance Program – Balanced Budget 2020” document shows.

But such subsidies disproportionately benefit richer Saudi residents: Lower income households — estimated to account for about 40 percent of the population — only benefit from around 30 percent of energy subsidies, the document shows.

Subsidy cuts

In line with moves made by other Arabian Gulf states, Saudi Arabia has been reducing subsidies, a move it terms “energy and water price reform”.

The first phase of this, which was introduced in 2016, included a “marginal” correction to energy and water prices, with very limited impact on low-income households. That phase produced savings of between SR27-29 billion, as well as reducing the growth rate in energy consumption, the Fiscal Balance Program states.

But the Kingdom plans a future phase of subsidy cuts, between 2017 and 2020, as part of its aim to eliminate its budget deficit during that time.

Domestic prices of energy and water products will be linked to the export price of the respective product, and this will fluctuate according to the international market. The prices of those products will be revised periodically, while the linkage of gasoline and diesel to reference prices is currently being studied, and will be implemented between 2017 and 2020.

The combined energy and water price reforms are expected to lead to saving of SR 209 billion per year by 2020, the Fiscal Balance Program states.

But this “phased increase in prices towards international market prices” will make it necessary to compensate low-income consumers.

Household Allowance

Indeed, the planned reforms between 2017-2020 “will significantly impact vulnerable household segments of the society, directly and indirectly”, according to the Fiscal Balance Program.

But it has a plan to soften the blow and in some cases boost the finances of low-income Saudis. The planned national Household Allowance aims to protect low- and medium-income households against the direct and indirect impact of the planned reforms.

Not only will this scheme compensate such households for the steeper costs of energy and water, it will also reward sensible energy consumption, the Fiscal Balance Program states.

“Instead of benefits that are built-in discounted prices of energy products, we will introduce bank transfers to the eligible households that will allow us to better redistribute benefits to the deserving households,” it stated.

“Today most of the vulnerable Saudi household segments are modest consumers. The allowance will cover the costs of sensible consumption, but those who currently consume more than these levels will need to moderate their consumption in order to limit the impact on their disposable income.”

Who can claim?

The principles of this cash allowance scheme have been based on “global success stories”, which suggest cash and bank transfers are the most efficient ways to target eligible recipients, and provide savings opportunities to households if they consume and spend wisely.

The first payment should be made before changing energy prices, according to the global best practices, to ensure that Saudi households can plan their expenditure ahead of price changes and feel relieved. And the amount should vary based on the number of people in a household and their income level.

The Household Allowance plan is open to mainly Saudi national households made up of first degree relatives. “The main beneficiaries of this program include Saudi households along with other segments, such singles who are living independently of their families, the non-Saudi household with a Saudi mother, and holders of a transit permit,” the Fiscal Balance Program states.

The value of the allowance is based on energy and water prices as well as other basic goods, to account for any indirect price rises.

The larger the size of the household, the greater the basic entitlement. In addition, the entitlement amount will be reduced for households with higher income levels — and those on the highest incomes will not have any entitlement at all.

The Ministry of Labor and Social Development responded to Saudi citizens’ many inquiries on social media over the unified “Citizens’ Account Program”, of which the Household Allowance scheme will be part. This will develop to become a comprehensive program that includes all different types of programs and government benefits.

These unified citizen accounts are for groups including Saudi families, unmarried individuals, Saudi mothers married to non-Saudis, and holders of free-movement cards, those that live near borders and have free movement between neighboring countries such as Yemen.

The ministry said on Twitter that the monthly income of the families will be the key factor to be considered. It called on Saudi citizens to shun listening to rumors and take news from credible sources such as the ministry’s call center.

How much will recipients get?

The Fiscal Balance Program gave an illustration on how the allowance could impact a household of six people in 2017, based on five income brackets.

The example showed that a household with an average income of SR4,500 a month would have an extra financial burden of SR450 a month due to higher energy and water prices. But they could receive an average allowance of SR700, leaving them SR250 a month better off.

But a household of six with an average income of SR34,500 a month would have an extra financial burden of SR1,100 a month, and not be entitled to an allowance.

“We will be spending generously, to ensure that we appropriately cover eligible Saudi households,” the Fiscal Balance Program documents state.

“The amount of Household Allowance will increase each year from 2017-2020 with the annual increase in burden on households resulting from gradual reforms. It is expected that the total annual amount of allowances will reach SAR60-70bn in 2020.”

On 1 Feb. 2017, a registration portal will be opened for the scheme, while all eligible social security recipients relevant to the Ministry of Labor and Social Development will be automatically registered.

All eligible beneficiaries will receive their first payment prior to implementing the new price changes, according to the Fiscal Balance Program.

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May 25,2020

May 25: A total of 241 Indians including 136 people who were jailed in Kuwait would return to the country soon, a senior minister said on Sunday.

The other 105 people were stranded in Bangladesh, Law Minister Ratan Lal Nath said.

"Altogether 136 people from Tripura and Assam, who are at present in jail in Kuwait for violating that country's laws, would be deported. They will reach Guwahati between May 27 and June 4 in a special flight," Nath told reporters.

He said the matter has been officially informed by the Kuwaiti government, but the reason for their imprisonment is not known.

"We had requested the Kuwaiti authorities to drop the Tripura residents here. However, they informed us that the flight would land in a single airport," the minister added.

Nath said 105 residents of Tripura, who are stranded in different places of Bangladesh will return to the state through the Agartala-Akhaura integrated check post on May 28.

"They would be taken to institutional quarantine and swabs of all the passengers would be collected for COVID-19 test," Nath said.

If the report of their samples tests negative, they would be allowed to leave the facility and remain under 14 days of home quarantine. And those who test positive would be hospitalized, he said.

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May 11,2020

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

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March 11,2020

Mar 11: Energy giant Saudi Aramco on Wednesday said it plans to raise its crude production capacity by one million barrels per day to 13 million bpd as a price war with Russia intensifies.

"Saudi Aramco announces that it received a directive from the ministry of energy to increase its maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd," the company said in a statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange.

The decision comes a day after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, decided to hike production by at least 2.5 million bpd to a record 12.3 million from April.

The Saudi moves come after the collapse of an oil production reduction agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia.

The deal proposed by Saudi Arabia called for additional output cuts of 1.5 million bpd to cope with the severe economic impact of the coronavirus which has sharply reduced world demand for crude.

Boosting production capacity normally takes a long time and requires billions of dollars of investment.

Several years ago, the kingdom had shelved plans to boost its crude production capacity beyond 12 million bpd after demand for OPEC oil declined in the face of stiff competition from North American shale oil and other sources.

Russia on Tuesday said it was open to renewing cooperation with the OPEC cartel even as its kingpin Saudi Arabia escalated a price war with Moscow by announcing it would flood markets with new supplies.

The oil price war broke out after OPEC and a group of non-member countries dominated by Russia -- the world's second largest producer -- on Friday failed to agree on production cuts.

Saudi Arabia responded by announcing unilateral price cuts. This prompted the oil price to plummet and fuelled huge falls on stock markets around the world on Monday.

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