Bombs and weapons recovered in Thalassery

From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”

Kochi, Feb 9: P Parameswaran, one of the senior-most "pracharaks" of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and former leader of the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh, died at 91 in the early hours today, Sangh Parivar sources said.

The founder director of the Bharatheeya Vichara Kendram died at 12.10 am while undergoing Ayurvedic treatment at Ottappalam in Kerala's Palakkad district, according to sources.

P Parameswaran, who had worked with leaders like Deendayal Upadhyaya, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani during the Jana Sangh days, was honoured with Padma Vibhushan, the country's second highest civilian award in 2018 and Padma Shri in 2004.

Fondly called as Parameswar ji by Sangh Parivar and Bharatiya Janata Party leaders, he was a prolific writer, poet, researcher and a widely-respected RSS ideologue. He was the Bharatiya Jana Sangh's secretary (1967-1971) and vice0president (1971-1977), as well as the director of the Deendayal Research Institute (1977-1982) in New Delhi.

Born in 1927 in Muhamma, Alappuzha district, he joined the RSS during his student days.

His body will be brought to the RSS headquarters in Kochi this morning for people to pay their last respects. The cremation will be held in Muhamma in the evening, sources said.

During the days of Emergency between 1975-77, he courted arrest as part of the all India Satyagraha against it and was jailed for 16 months.

Bharatheeya Vichara Kendram was established by P Parameswaran in 1982 "to promote nationalist thoughts among Keralites".

Kolkata, Jan 2: In what could spark fresh tensions between West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the BJP-led centre, the Union Ministry of Defence on Wednesday rejected her state's tableau proposal for the Republic Day parade on January 26.

"The tableau proposal of West Bengal government was examined by the expert committee in two rounds of meetings. The tableau proposal of the West Bengal government was not taken forward for further consideration by the committee after deliberations in the second meeting," the ministry said in its statement.

Twenty two proposals comprising 16 states and union territories and six ministries and departments have been shortlisted for the parade. The shortlist was compiled from as many as 56 tableau proposals - 32 from states and union territories and 24 from various ministries and departments - received by the central government.

"The expert committee examines the proposals on the basis of theme, concept, design and visual impact before making its recommendations. Due to time constraints arising out of the overall duration of the parade, only a limited number of tableaux can be shortlisted for participation in the parade," the statement read, adding that West Bengal was shortlisted for the 2019 Republic Day parade through a similar process.

"The rejection of the West Bengal tableau for the Republic Day parade is discriminatory. It has been done because West Bengal has been opposing the centre's CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) and the NRC (National Register of Citizens) plans," Trinamool Congress MP Saugata Roy told news agency.

"West Bengal is known to be living state as far as culture, including arts, music and other things are concerned. So obviously, this is a discriminatory step taken by the central government against West Bengal," Mr Roy added.

The Trinamool Congress-led Bengal government is at loggerheads with the central government over several issues, and the expanding presence of the BJP in the eastern state ahead of the 2021 assembly elections has further intensified their rivalry.

Mamata Banerjee has repeatedly said that she will not allow Bengal to be a part of the proposed nationwide National Register of Citizens, an assertion that the BJP claims is proof of her minority appeasement strategy. Last month, a four-member delegation of Trinamool Congress politicians that visited BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh to meet families of those killed in violent protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act were stopped by police personnel at the Lucknow airport.

The BJP leadership has now decided to launch a campaign blitzkrieg in West Bengal to counter what it claims is the Trinamool's "misinformation programmes" against the amended citizenship law and reach out to refugees. Protests across the country have currently put the party on the backfoot.

The Citizenship Amendment Act, for the first time, makes religion the test of citizenship in India. The government says it will help minorities from three Muslim-dominated countries get citizenship if they fled to India because of religious persecution before 2015. Critics say it is designed to discriminate against Muslims and violates the secular principals of the Constitution.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will be the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations.