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United Nations, Apr 2: The global economy could shrink by up to one per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent growth, the UN has said, warning that it may contract even further if restrictions on the economic activities are extended without adequate fiscal responses.

The analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) said the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade. With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt.

"Millions of workers in these countries are facing the bleak prospect of losing their jobs. Governments are considering and rolling out large stimulus packages to avert a sharp downturn of their economies which could potentially plunge the global economy into a deep recession. In the worst-case scenario, the world economy could contract by 0.9 per cent in 2020," the DESA said, adding that the world economy had contracted by 1.7 per cent during the global financial crisis in 2009.

It added that the contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.

The analysis noted that before the outbreak of the COVID-19, world output was expected to expand at a modest pace of 2.5 per cent in 2020, as reported in the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020.

Taking into account rapidly changing economic conditions, the UN DESA's World Economic Forecasting Model has estimated best and worst-case scenarios for global growth in 2020.

In the best-case scenario with moderate declines in private consumption, investment and exports and offsetting increases in government spending in the G-7 countries and China global growth would fall to 1.2 per cent in 2020.

"In the worst-case scenario, the global output would contract by 0.9 per cent instead of growing by 2.5 per cent in 2020," it said, adding that the scenario is based on demand-side shocks of different magnitudes to China, Japan, South Korea, the US and the EU, as well as an oil price decline of 50 per cent against our baseline of USD 61 per barrel.

The severity of the economic impact will largely depend on two factors - the duration of restrictions on the movement of people and economic activities in major economies; and the actual size and efficacy of fiscal responses to the crisis.

A well-designed fiscal stimulus package, prioritising health spending to contain the spread of the virus and providing income support to households most affected by the pandemic would help to minimise the likelihood of a deep economic recession, it said.

According to the forecast, lockdowns in Europe and North America are hitting the service sector hard, particularly industries that involve physical interactions such as retail trade, leisure and hospitality, recreation and transportation services. Collectively, such industries account for more than a quarter of all jobs in these economies.

The DESA said as businesses lose revenue, unemployment is likely to increase sharply, transforming a supply-side shock to a wider demand-side shock for the economy.

Against this backdrop, the UN-DESA is joining a chorus of voices across the UN system calling for well-designed fiscal stimulus packages which prioritize health spending and support households most affected by the pandemic.

Urgent and bold policy measures are needed, not only to contain the pandemic and save lives, but also to protect the most vulnerable in our societies from economic ruin and to sustain economic growth and financial stability, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said.

The analysis also warns that the adverse effects of prolonged economic restrictions in developed economies will soon spill over to developing countries via trade and investment channels.

A sharp decline in consumer spending in the European Union and the United States will reduce imports of consumer goods from developing countries.

Developing countries, particularly those dependent on tourism and commodity exports, face heightened economic risks. Global manufacturing production could contract significantly, and the plummeting number of travellers is likely to hurt the tourism sector in small island developing States, which employs millions of low-skilled workers, it said.

Meanwhile, the decline in commodity-related revenues and a reversal of capital flows are increasing the likelihood of debt distress for many nations. Governments may be forced to curtail public expenditure at a time when they need to ramp up spending to contain the pandemic and support consumption and investment.

UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Elliot Harris said the collective goal must be a resilient recovery which puts the planet back on a sustainable track. We must not lose sight how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development, he said.

The alarms raised by UN-DESA echo another report, released on March 31, in which UN experts issued a broad appeal for a large-scale, coordinated, comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to estimates by the Johns Hopkins University, confirmed coronavirus cases across the world now stand at over 932,600 and over 42,000 deaths.

Jan 30: The death toll rose to 170 in the new virus outbreak in China on Thursday as foreign evacuees from the worst-hit region begin returning home under close observation and world health officials expressed “great concern” that the disease is starting to spread between people outside of China.

Thursday’s figures cover the previous 24 hours and represent an increase of 38 deaths and 1,737 cases for a total of 7,711. Of the new deaths, 37 were in the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province and one in the southwestern province of Sichuan.

The news comes as the 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, the Hubei province city of 11 million where the outbreak originated, are undergoing three days of testing and monitoring at a Southern California military base to make sure they do not show signs of the virus.

A group of 210 Japanese evacuees from Wuhan landed Thursday at Tokyo’s Haneda airport on a second government chartered flight, according to the foreign ministry. Reports said nine of those aboard the flight showed signs of cough and fever. Three of the 206 Japanese who returned on Wednesday tested positive for the new coronavirus, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said during a parliamentary session. Two of them showed no symptoms of the disease.

France, New Zealand, Australia and other countries are also pulling out their citizens or making plans to do so.

The World Health Organization emergencies chief said the few cases of human-to-human spread of the virus outside China — in Japan, Germany, Canada and Vietnam — were of “great concern” and were part of the reason the U.N. health agency’s director-general was reconvening a committee of experts on Thursday to assess whether the outbreak should be declared a global emergency.

The new virus has now infected more people in China than were sickened there during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak.

Dr. Michael Ryan spoke at a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday after returning from a trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior government leaders. He said China was taking “extraordinary measures in the face of an extraordinary challenge” posed by the outbreak.

To date, about 99% of the cases are in China. Ryan estimated the death rate of the new virus at 2%, but said the figure was very preliminary. With fluctuating numbers of cases and deaths, scientists are only able to produce a rough estimate of the fatality rate and it’s likely many milder cases of the virus are being missed.

In comparison, the SARS virus killed about 10% of people who caught it. The new virus is from the coronavirus family, which includes those that can cause the common cold as well as more serious illnesses such as SARS and MERS.

Scientists say there are many questions to be answered about the new virus, including just how easily it spreads and how severe it is.

In a report published Wednesday, Chinese researchers suggested that person-to-person spread among close contacts occurred as early as mid-December.

“Considerable efforts” will be needed to control the spread if this ratio holds up elsewhere, researchers wrote in the report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

More than half of the cases in which symptoms began before Jan. 1 were tied to a seafood market, but only 8% of cases after that have been, researchers found. They reported the average incubation period was five days.

Singapore, Jul 11: Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has secured a “clear mandate” with his ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) winning 83 of the 93 contested parliamentary seats in the general election held amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, with the Opposition gaining ground by winning a record 10 seats.

The ruling party, in power since independence in 1965, secured 61.24 percent of the total votes cast in the election, down from 69.9 percent in 2015. About 2.6 million Singaporeans voted on Friday.

“We have a clear mandate, but the percentage of the popular vote is not as high as I had hoped for,” 68-year old Lee told a PAP’s post-results press conference on Saturday morning.

The opposition Workers’ Party secured 10 seats and defeated a team in the Group Representation Constituency of Sengkang led by former Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Ng Chee Meng who is also the Secretary-General of the power National Trades Union Congress (NTUC).

The Prime Minister assured it is “only right” that Workers’ Party’s Indian-origin secretary-general Pritam Singh be “formally designated” as the Leader of the Opposition, and that he will be provided with “appropriate staff support and resources to perform his duties”.

Lee took the results in “these circumstances” as an “endorsement” of the party’s policies and plans as he had called the elections amidst Covid-19 pandemic.

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“We’ll take this forward and work with Singapore to realise those plans and solve the problems which we have,” Channel News Asia quoted the premier as saying.

Lee, who leads the PAP as secretary-general, said, “Singaporeans understand what’s at stake and why we must come together to uphold our national interests.”

He pledged to use this mandate “responsibly” to deal with the Covid-19 situation and economic downturn, to take Singapore “safely through the crisis and beyond”.

“The results reflect the pain and uncertainty that Singaporeans feel in this crisis, the loss of income, the anxiety about jobs, the disruption caused by the circuit breaker and the safe distancing restrictions,” he said.

This was not a “feel-good” election, said Lee, Singapore’s third prime minister who faces the city state’s worst recession with the economy projected to shrink between 7 and 4 per cent.

Lee acknowledged that the result also showed a “clear desire” for a diversity of voices in Parliament.

“Singaporeans want the PAP to form the government, but they, and especially the younger voters, also want to see more opposition presence in parliament,” he noted.

Lee added that he looks forward to the participation and contribution of the Opposition in parliament.

Singh, whose Workers’ Party team retained Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC), will have 10 elected MPs now, up from six previously. His fellow member also retained the Hougang single-member constituency seat.

“Whether it works out… and whether it’s seen as a strengthening of Singapore will depend not only on what the PAP does but also on what the Opposition does because the Opposition now has 10 MPs elected from constituencies,” said Lee.

He assured that the ruling party will listen to Singaporeans and do its best to address their concerns, and “try to win” their support, whether or not they voted for the PAP.

When asked by the media if the party had lost the youth vote, he noted that different generations have different life experiences, and the young have significantly different life aspirations and priorities compared to the older generations.

“That’ll have to be reflected in our political process and in the government’s policies because, in the end, the government’s policies must be to achieve the aspirations of every generation of Singaporeans,” Lee said, assuring Singaporeans.

He hoped that the new generations of Singaporeans “look critically, but with an open mind” at what previous generations have done, “examine what’s relevant and what continues to make sense to them in a new environment” and “learn from these experiences hard-won by their parents and grandparents”.

This is so that they do not have to “learn them all over again and pay a high price which has already been paid”.

Lee added that he was, naturally, disappointed at the loss of the newly formed Sengkang GRC, which the Workers’ Party won with 52.13 percent of the valid votes.

“Ng Chee Meng and his team -- Lam Pin Min, Amrin Amin and Raymond Lye -- always knew it was going to be a tough fight,” he said.

“They gave it their all, but Sengkang voters have spoken, and we respect their decision.”

Lee described it as a “major loss to my team” and to the fourth-generation leaders, especially as Ng is the secretary-general of the Labour Movement, the NTUC.

Singh, 43, told a press conference following the results that his team would “continue to endeavour for good outcomes on the ground” and to represent voters “faithfully in parliament”.

“Today’s results are positive, but we have to hit the ground running. We should not get over our head with the results. There’s much work to do. And I can assure you this Workers’ Party team is committed to serve Singapore,” he stressed.

The PAP contested all 93 seats and the Workers’ Party 21 seats. Nine other political parties also contested the elections.

A total of 192 candidates contested for seats through 17 Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs).