'Budget is election manifesto,attempts to bribe voters'

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

New Delhi, Jun 25: After the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) given its approval to manufacture and market the generic version of COVID-19 drug Remdesivir, COVIFOR, Hyderabad-based drugmaker Hetero Limited has delivered the first set of 20,000 vials in two equal lots of 10,000 each across 5 states.

The first batch, which is being marketed under the brand name of COVIFOR, was delivered to Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat Tamil Nadu and Hyderabad. Hetero has set a target to produce one lakh vials of the drug in two-three weeks.

The other lot would be supplied to Kolkata, Indore, Bhopal, Lucknow, Patna, Bhubaneshwar, Ranchi, Vijayawada, Cochin, Trivandrum and Goa within a week to meet the emergency requirements.

Managing director of Hetero Healthcare M Srinivasa Reddy said “the launch of Covifor in the country is a milestone in addressing public health emergencies. Through Covifor, we hope to reduce the treatment time of a patient in a hospital thereby reducing the increasing pressure on the medical infrastructure overburdened ue to accelerating COVID-19 infection rates," he said as reported by news agency.

"We are closely working with the government and the medical community to make Covifor quickly accessible to both public and private healthcare settings across the country”, Reddy said.

Covifor is a generic brand of Remdesivir which is used for the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and children hospitalised with strong symptoms of the disease. The Health Ministry had, on June 13, recommended the use of anti-viral drug Remdesivir in moderate stage of COVID-19.

Dr Reddys Laboratories and Hetero are among others which have separately entered into non-exclusive licensing agreements with the original drug-maker Gilead Sciences Inc to register, make and sell the investigational drug Remdesivir in India and other countries.

Remdesivir would be made in the company's formulation facility in Hyderabad, which has been approved by global regulatory authorities such as US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and EU, among others, Hetero had earlier said.

The treatment first showed improvement in trials on coronavirus patients and was approved for emergency use in severely ill patients in the United States and South Korea.

New Delhi, Jan 24: Although India's Ujjwala programme encouraged adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking among the poor, households availing the scheme have not shifted away from using highly polluting fuels like firewood, a study reveals.

The researchers, including those from the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada, found that additional incentives to encourage regular use of cooking gas are necessary for a complete transition to clean cooking fuel among poor rural households.

They noted that about 2.9 billion people across Asia, Africa, and Latin America burn solid fuels like firewood to meet their cooking energy needs.

This has significant negative implications for public health, the environment, and societal development, according to the researchers.

Through the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), India has provided capital cost subsidies to poor women to adopt a clean-burning cooking fuel or LPG.

The researchers explained that within the first 40 months of the scheme, more than 80 million households obtained LPG stoves.

However, the full benefits of LPG adoption depend on near complete replacement of polluting fuels with LPG, according to a research-based policy brief published in the journal Nature Energy.

The scientists said this cannot be assumed solely on the basis of LPG presence in the household.

"Our research shows that Ujjwala was able to attract new consumers rapidly, but those consumers did not start using LPG on a regular basis," Abhishek Kar, a postdoc at Columbia University in the US, told PTI.

The study analysed LPG sales data for over 25,000 consumers, including PMUY beneficiaries, as well as general rural LPG consumers in Koppal district of Karnataka.

The scientists employed data covering all LPG purchases of PMUY beneficiaries through their first year in the programme.

They also assessed the general rural population's purchases during their first five years as consumers to assess the effect of experience on use.

The findings estimate that an average rural family needs to purchase five 14.2 kilogramme-cylinders annually to meet half of their cooking needs.

However, the study said just seven per cent of PMUY beneficiaries in Koppal purchased five or more cylinders annually, suggesting that the beneficiaries seldom use LPG.

The general (nonPMUY) consumers in this region use on average two times more LPG cylinders than PMUY beneficiaries, the researchers noted.

Yet, only 45 per cent of nonPMUY consumers use five or more cylinders per year -- even after several years of experience with LPG, they said.

The team assessed price and seasonal factors affecting LPG use among the general population over a three-year period.

It found that LPG consumers are sensitive to price and seasonality -- LPG cylinder refill rates are lower in the summer when agricultural activity is limited, and cash is scarce.

"There was no scheme incentives to promote use, except general LPG subsidies which is available to all, including the urban middle class," said Kar, who was a Ph.D. scholar at UBC when the research was published.

"If there is no additional income, what cost would a poor family on an already tight budget cut to pay for an extra expense on a regular basis.

"Ujjwala has started the scheme of 5 kg-cylinder in response, but the impact of that on LPG sales is still publicly unknown," he said.

These findings, the researchers noted, suggest the need for additional measures to promote regular LPG use for all rural populations.

Although the finding come from a single district in Southern India, it may also apply to other areas with similar socio-economic conditions, they said.

A more expansive evaluation of PMUY would help design targeted incentives to transform infrequent users to regular users, according to the researchers.