Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.
The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.
“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.
The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.
Here are the details of the dashboard:
Business Activity
The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.
India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.
The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.
“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”
Exports
Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.
Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.
Consumer Activity
Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.
Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.
Industrial Activity
Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.
The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.
Comments
Muslims worship allah and don't want to say vandemataram.
Christians worship Jesus only still they do not have problem in singing vandemataram.
Bhudhist worship bhudha only still they do not have problem in singing vandemataram.
Jains worship mahavir only still they do not have problem in singing vandemataram.
why it is only problem for muslim to sing vandemataram.-
Please everyone try to know, that Islam has codes to follow. Islam strongly and strictly has to follow the God’s rule. No human interference is allowed to complement to God’s rules. Islam has 2books. Quran and Hadees the sayings of the prophet Muhammad (peace upon him PBU)
Muslims are not allowed to introduce new things which are contradictory to Islam.
Because Islam is flexible enough to allow allowable things. These things will suffice the needs. No need to invent the wheels. Islam is purely based on 1God and Message came thru prophet Muhammad PBU.
This is called 1ness of God. Nothing should be worshipped other than 1 the true God. We worship only the God and we seek all our requirements with this 1God. This is the important message. Anyone contradicting and violating it by worshiping others or praying others for our requirements is a unforgivable offense which leads to hell fire. it is command to us to be careful of this error.
30% of the teaching of Islam is repeatedly discouraging to worship or attribute others with the God. What a serious teaching we have to be careful of. This is repeated in Quran and hadees. Nothing is allowed even in a minute level to equate into the Quality of the God. This is oneness of God. Things against is called as doing shirk(associating to the God). May the God save us from this error.
1.VANDE MATARAM : We can not sing this song because its meaning contradicts the above oneness of the God.
2. Celebrating other festival
Muslims are allowed to observe 2eids (Eid ul Fitr. This is after end of Ramadan fasting, 2nd is Eid us Adha)
Even we don’t celebrate the birth day of anyone including our prophet.
Patriotism
We are not against national interest. We have to fight for the right of our nation as long as we are not offending others. If required we are commanded to fight and sacrifice our lives. What a great teaching. Is it in taught in any other books.
So we don’t celebrate even National independence day. No need for celebration but we are ready to sacrifice to defend the nation.
Mr bogi , from last year rss nagpur headquartes started hoisting indian flag , from 1947 our madrasas hoisting clelebrating indipendence day , you sangis were with british when indians were fighting for freedom , now its time for indians to fight against sangh parivar .
To Yogi and his chela Mohsin: - Do you want the video that I'm Celebrating Ind. Pen Day and Fl-ag hosting in bathroom..........
Mr Yogi's statement is a proof for his trust in minorities, for video recording... Its better to send those Usthads who all attended the MRM meet yesterday in Bantwal constituency.
Yogi ji could you please request your headquarters in Nagpur to hoist national flag above RSS's Saffron flag,
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