Chabahar Port in Iran will be operational by 2019: India

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 13: Three more people in Kerala tested positive for novel coronavirus disease on Monday, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

"With 3 new COVID-19 cases, the total number of cases in the state has reached 378," said Vijayan at a press conference.

Giving a break-up of the three confirmed COVID-19 cases, he said, "Of the 3 cases, 2 are from Kannur and 1 is from Palakkad."

He further said, "Till date, 15,683 samples tested, out of which 14,829 tested negative."

However, the total number of positive cases is decreasing, the Chief Minister added.

According to a recent update by the Ministery of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of cases in the country has reached 9352.

Thiruvananthapuram, May 24: Keralites on Sunday celebrated a low-key Eid-ul-Fitr amid the coronavirus lockdown in the state as most of the faithful marked the culmination of the fasting month of Ramzan by offering thanksgiving prayers at home.

The festival is being celebrated across Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday, while the rest of the country will celebrate Eid on Monday.

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan extended Eid-ul-Fitr greetings to all Keralites across the world.

State Governor Arif Mohammed Khan also extended his festival wishes to all the Keralites.

"May we also have the blessing to prevent and eliminate the COVID-19 disease," Khan tweeted.

Vijayan said this year Ramzan is celebrated at a time when the world is going through "an unprecedented crisis and misery" because of pandemic COVID-19.

"Usual celebration during Ramzan is not there anywhere in the world due to the pandemic. Instead of offering prayers at mosques, which is important for Muslims, this time the prayers and the feast is performed in their homes.

Community leaders have taken this important decision to protect the interests of the society" he added.

The chief minister said Eid-ul-Fitr gives out a message of equality, tolerance and repentance.

The state government had earlier announced that the lockdown restrictions in the state onSunday will be relaxed in the view of Eid-ul-Fitr with shops selling essential items remaining open.

The State government had earlier declared that a complete shutdown would be observed in Kerala on Sundays in order to contain the spread of the deadly virus.