'Change is Clearly Visible': PM Modi Sees India as $10 Trillion Economy with Countless Start-ups

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Jul 18: National carrier Air India on Friday said that it is in a ‘very challenging financial’ situation and is taking recourse to several initiatives, with a view to ensuring the continuance of its operations.

The airline, in a statement, noted that it has introduced the partially voluntary 'Leave Without Pay' (LWP) scheme on July 14.

"The scheme primarily enables employees to avail the benefits of proceeding on leave without pay on a voluntary basis. The LWP scheme has been introduced for grant of leave without pay and allowances for permanent employees for a period of six months or two years, which is extendable upto 5 years," the statement said.

"Air India had brought out similar scheme earlier... Several hundred employees have, in the past, availed of the LWP Scheme."

As per the statement, in the wake of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, there may be employees who are unable to attend their office duties in person on account of personal reasons.

"The LWP scheme enables employees to take a break from their office responsibility for a defined period of time with the approval of the management, while retaining their employment with the company," the statement said.

"They will continue to avail facilities such as passage, medical and housing at specified rates."

Accordingly, the LWP scheme provides the opportunity to employees to take up alternative employment with the approval of the management during the period of the said leave, the airline said.

"The LWP scheme is a win-win situation for both the management as well as employees as it provides flexibility to employees and simultaneously reduces the wage bill for the company," the statement said.

"It is important to note here that the Covid-19 outbreak has very seriously impacted the airline sector and currently, the airline operations of the company are a small fraction of the prior Covid level operations."

The airline said that employees are encouraged to apply for availing the benefit of the scheme, in the prescribed format, by August 15.

"The only addition in this scheme as compared to the earlier LWP scheme is that the management can pass an order requiring the employees to go on leave for a period of six months or two years (extendable upto 5 years) compulsorily taking into consideration 'Suitability, Efficiency, Competence, Quality of performance, Health, Non-availability of employee and Redundancy'," the statement said.

Furthermore, the airline said that this provision has been introduced for use, "very sparingly", with a view to ensuring that the overall efficiency of the organisation, improves and the management will ensure that this will be implemented with complete fairness and transparency as per prescribed procedure.

Consequent to the announcement of the scheme, Air India unions are discussing their strategy against the move which might involve legal recourse.

An Air India union leader on Friday told IANS: "This is going to affect the livelihood of many. Why not every employee of AI take LWP a few days every month. This way the burden can be shared."

"The motive of the top management is to save their money by snatching money from lower employees."

According to Air India PIM document, as on November 1, 2019, the airline, on a standalone basis (without subsidiaries), had around 14,000 employees, including fixed term contract staff.

The development comes as the Centre has re-initiated the airline's divestment plan with new norms.

Interestingly, this time, it has sweetened the deal by substantially reducing the debt on the airline's account books and offered a 100 per cent stake in the loss-making airline.

The last date for bid submission to acquire Air India has also been extended to August 31.

New Delhi, Apr 26: The total count of coronavirus cases in the country surged to 26,917 on Sunday.

The total COVID-19 cases in the country are inclusive of 5,913 cured and discharged patients, one migrated, and 826 deaths. At present, there are 20,177 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

The Federation of Resident Doctors' Association (FORDA) wrote to the Union Health Minister, Dr Harsh Vardhan, seeking assistance regarding accommodation facilities for resident doctors advised for home quarantine.

In a letter to the Health Minister, the association stated that recently there have been reports of resident doctors from various hospitals who tested positive for COVID-19. As a consequence, their primary contacts who are mostly their colleagues and resident doctors, have been advised to be on home quarantine, the association added.

On the other hand, Maharashtra continues to have the largest number of COVID-19 positive cases at 7,628 . 1,076 persons have been cured in the state while 323 persons have died.

Fresh cases have been reported several states including West Bengal, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

The total number of cases in Indore has risen to 1,176, including 57 deaths.

While 133 deaths have been reported from Gujarat where the total number of cases spiked up to 3,071.

Kerala has seen a recovery rate of around 74 per cent as 338 out of the total 457 COVID-19 positive patients recovered in the state with only 4 fatalities.

Delhi has seen 2,625 COVID-19 positive cases and 54 deaths due to the pandemic.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. A five-member Central team visited Telangana Director General of Police (DGP) office here on Sunday, to review the law and order situation in the state and oversee how the state police are ensuring the implementation of the lockdown.

2. Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) Chandigarh and AIIMS Delhi and Bhopal will study the effectiveness of Mycobacterium w in critical COVID-19 patients.

3. Chandigarh-based Post- Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) said that it has assessed the safety of mycobacterial w (Mw), an immunomodulator for leprosy, in four hospitalised patients of COVID-19, and has found no short-term adverse effect.

4. As many as 2,189 cases were lodged and 10,062 people have been arrested so far, for the breach of lockdown norms in Uttarakhand.

5. The Delhi High Court has directed that COVID-19 related tests should be made available to the general public at the lowest cost possible as the country is going through an unprecedented medical crisis affecting public order.

6. Bihar government has ordered two automatic RNA extraction machines, said the Principal Secretary of Health, Sanjay Kumar today.

7. Medical services at Babu Jagjivan Ram Hospital in the Jahangirpuri area have been closed and the hospital is being sanitised after 44 staff members including doctors were tested positive for COVID-19, Delhi Health Department said.

8. In order to support the frontline workers in the fight against COVID-19, Samsung and Google will be offering free phone repairs to health care workers and first responders.

9. Bhopal Division of Indian Railways has converted 74 railways coaches into isolation wards, said Sunil Dhingra, Senior Section Engineer of Bhopal Division.

10. Indian High Commission here on Sunday said two Air India and one Blue Dart flights will send about 78 tonnes of cargo to India as part of the 1 million PPE kits being sourced from Singapore-based company.