China coronavirus cases fall, but more imported from abroad

May 30: Warning of the tightrope walk ahead as governments battle the coronavirus crisis, Nobel laureate Peter Charles Doherty has expressed concern about densely populated countries such as India relaxing lockdown norms while also describing a complete shutdown as “an economic and social impossibility”.

The Australian immunologist, who cautioned that the number of COVID-19 cases will rise in the coming days, said the earliest time frame for an effective vaccine “going into large numbers of people” is nine to 12 months.

"If all goes well with testing, we could know if some of the candidate vaccines are both safe and effective as early as September/October. Then, rolling a vaccine out will depend on the type of product and how quickly it can be made, put in vials and so forth," Doherty told PTI in an email interview from Melbourne.

The novel coronavirus, he added, does not change fast like influenza and, from what is known so far, “the same vaccine should work everywhere”.

Doherty, who is with the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at the Doherty Institute, University of Melbourne, won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1996 for his discovery of how the body’s immune system distinguishes virus-infected cells from normal ones.

Discussing the lockdown, he said, "If it was purely a matter of hard science, everywhere should stay locked down. But that’s pretty much an economic and social impossibility.”

The expectation, he said, is the numbers will rise and limiting spread will depend on people acting responsibly and the capacity for rapid response and extensive contact testing.

“And in a densely populated country like India I think that it will be very difficult," the scientist said.

Several countries, including India, began relaxing lockdown norms in mid-May despite the WHO’s warning about a second wave. India’s lockdown began on March 25 and has since been extended. The fourth phase ends on Sunday.

Asked whether there are any alternatives to a lockdown, the 79-year-old said, "There is no other option other than closing borders. South Korea, for example, conducted massive, intensive testing and contact tracing in a wealthy country with a very disciplined population. Otherwise, not till we have effective vaccines."

He added that he personally doesn’t see the point of closing borders for people coming in if there’s already a high incidence of disease in the community, “unless it’s to avoid the need to care for them and use scarce hospital beds".

According to Doherty, the coronavirus "is a new virus which has come straight out of nature".

“It (the virus) has moved so rapidly across the world because of people travelling on international planes as well as tourist ships," he added.

The immunologist also warned against the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, and said current and planned trials of the anti-malaria drug should be stopped.

“My understanding is that the use of the drug in severe disease is definitely contra-indicated, but it’s not yet clear whether, if taken under medical supervision, it could have some useful effect if taken early on, or as a preventive. Those trials just haven’t been done properly," Doherty noted.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has backed the use of hydroxychloroquine as a preventive against COVID-19 even after the WHO suspended clinical trials of the drug citing safety concerns.

Asked whether plasma therapy can be an effective treatment for COVID-19, Doherty said, "We lack good properly controlled trials but, especially if the plasma has been tested for antibody levels and there’s evidence of good activity, it could be helpful. If I had the disease and was offered plasma therapy I would certainly accept, but I would not take hydroxychloroquine."

Doherty is also very optimistic about herd immunity developing against the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

"We think that (herd immunity) will cut in and have an obvious effect when, say, 60 per cent of people have been infected. Best hope is to boost herd immunity with a vaccine," he stated.

Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections.

The number of COVID-19 cases have crossed 5.9 million and the fatalities 3,65,000, according to the Johns Hopkins University on Saturday. 

In India, the death toll has risen to 4,971 and the number of cases to 1,73,763, according to the Union Health Ministry on Saturday.

Several states, including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, have reported a rise in number since lockdown norms were relaxed in early May and migrant workers reached home.

In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the number of infections rose from around 3,000 on May 4 to 6,532 on May 26. Similarly, Bihar’s numbers increased from around 500 to over 2,700 in the period.

London, Apr 22: The toll from coronavirus in the United Kingdom has jumped above 18,000 after 759 more deaths were reported in the last 24 hours, the Department of Health and Social Care announced in a statistical bulletin on Wednesday.

In total, 18,100 people have died in the UK hospitals after contracting COVID-19 as of 16:00 GMT on Tuesday.

A further 4,451 new cases of the disease were reported over the preceding 24 hours up to 08:00 GMT on Wednesday, the ministry said. The total number of cases reported since the start of the outbreak now stands at 1,33,495.

On Tuesday, the Office of National Statistics published a report stating that the coronavirus disease death toll as of April 10, when accounting for deaths in care homes and private residences, was 41 per cent higher than the government's figures.

In parliament on Wednesday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated that the United Kingdom has reached the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, praising the social distancing measures enforced in the country.

Nairobi, Mar 14: Kenya and Ethiopia on Friday announced their first confirmed cases of coronavirus, as East Africa, which has so far been unscathed by the global pandemic, scaled up emergency measures to contain its spread.

In Kenya, a 27-year-old Kenyan woman tested positive for the virus on Thursday in Nairobi, a week after returning from the United States via London.

She was in a stable condition and recovering, Health Minister Mutahi Kagwe told reporters.

"We wish to assure all Kenyans that the government will use all the resources available to fight coronavirus," he said, as the government rolled out a raft of new containment measures.

The government had traced all the contacts of the patient since she arrived back in Kenya on March 5, he said.

"At the moment, there is absolutely no need for panic and worry," he said.

Kenya, with a population of 50 million people, saw a spree of panic buying among the middle-class in Nairobi supermarkets, in the wake of the announcement.

Meanwhile Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous nation with over 100 million people, said a 48-year-old Japanese man who had arrived in the country on March 4 from Burkina Faso was confirmed to have contracted the virus.

"He is undergoing medical follow-up and is in a stable condition. Those who have been in contact with this person are being traced and quarantined," the health ministry said in a statement.

Burkina Faso only confirmed its first case on Tuesday -- a couple returning from France -- and the Japanese patient had been in that country since February 24.

Ethiopian Health Minister Lia Tadesse said three other patients were in isolation.

Ethiopia becomes the 15 country in Africa with a confirmed case of the virus that has swept the globe, infecting more than 130,000 people and killing nearly 5,000 since it first emerged in China.

But to date the continent has been spared the worst of the pandemic.

Only five people have succumbed to coronavirus so far -- all in north Africa -- with the sub-Saharan region recording no deaths and very low numbers of confirmed cases.

But countries in East Africa -- which until the positive case in Kenya, had only recorded negative test results -- have been taking precautions.

Some flights have been restricted, with Kenya Airways suspending its route to Rome, and charter flights from Italy to the Kenyan coast on hold.

It has also suspended international conferences, a top earner in Nairobi, a hub for such events in the region, and non-essential travel abroad for politicians.

The government announced more expansive restrictions on Friday, including a temporary ban on major public gatherings, prison visits and activities between schools.

Other countries in the region have been rolling out their own measures.

In Rwanda, which shares a border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has confirmed cases, washing basins with soap and sanitiser have been placed on streets for commuters to use before boarding buses.

Authorities in Kigali, the capital, have also banned concerts, rallies and trade fairs -- although like in Kenya and Uganda, church services have been proceeding and bars, restaurants and entertainment precincts remain open.

Neighbouring Burundi, meanwhile, has quarantined 34 people in a hotel in Bujumbura as a precaution.

Uganda has ordered that visitors from a number of affected countries self quarantine for 14 days, or consider simply not visiting at all.

South Sudan's health ministry said meanwhile that it was "temporarily suspending direct flights between South Sudan and all affected countries".

Kagwe, the Kenyan health minister, also addressed a rumour circulating on social media that people with black skin cannot contract the virus.

"I would like to disabuse that notion. The lady (confirmed with coronavirus in Kenya) is an African, like you and I," he said.