China justifies supporting 'terrorist' Masood Azhar

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Kashmir, Jun 14: An Army personnel was killed and two others were injured as Pakistani troops opened fire and shelled areas along the Line of Control in Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir, officials said on Sunday.

This is the third fatality in the Pakistani firing and shelling on forward posts and villages in the twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri this month.

The officials said the latest firing and shelling from across the border took place in Shahpur-Kerni sector on Saturday night, drawing strong retaliation by the Indian Army.

Three Indian Army personnel were injured in the Pakistani firing and were immediately evacuated to hospital, where one of them succumbed to injuries, the officials said.

They said the casualties suffered by the Pakistani Army in the retaliatory action were not known immediately.

On June 4, havaldar P Mathiazhagan fell to Pakistani firing in Sunderbani sector of Rajouri district, while on June 10, Naik Gurcharan Singh lost his life in a similar incident in Rajouri sector.

Davos, Jan 22: President Donald Trump has said that the US is watching the developments between India and Pakistan over Kashmir "very closely" and repeated his offer to "help" resolve the longstanding dispute between the two neighbours as he met Prime Minister Imran Khan on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum here in the Swiss ski resort.

Addressing the media with the Pakistan Prime Minister prior to their private meeting on Tuesday, President Trump asserted that trade and borders were both critical points for discussion, while Khan said that for him, Afghanistan was the top priority.

Trump told Khan, whom he referred to as "my friend", that he would speak to Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the ongoing Kashmir issue. The US president is expected to visit India in the coming weeks, marking his first visit after taking up his post in the White House.

"What's going on between Pakistan and India … if we can help, we certainly will be willing to. We have been watching it very closely and it's an honour to be here with my friend," he said.

"The Pakistan-India conflict is a very big issue for us in Pakistan and we expect the US to always play its part in deescalating the tensions, because no other country can," Khan said.

President Trump has repeatedly offered to mediate following India's August 5 decision to revoke the special status to Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcate the state into two Union Territories, evoking strong reaction from Pakistan which has been trying to internationalise the Kashmir issue.

New Delhi has defended the move, saying Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and the issue was strictly internal to the country, and the special status provisions only gave rise to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.

"The country took the decision of abrogation of Article 370, which had only given separatism and terrorism to that state," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a function in October last year.

This is the third meeting between Trump and Khan since Pakistan premier assumed office in 2018 and it came against the backdrop of Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's recent trip to the US, amid reports that the US and Afghan Taliban were close to striking a peace deal.

"There are issues we want to talk about. The main issue is Afghanistan because it concerns the US and Pakistan. Fortunately, we are on the same page. Both of us are interested in peace there and an orderly transition in Afghanistan with talks with Taliban and the government," Khan said.

When a reporter asked Trump if he would visit Pakistan considering he was already set to visit India, the US president said he was meeting the Pakistan premier in Davos.

"Well, we're visiting right now. So we don't really have to. I wanted to say that from a relationship standpoint, we got a great relationship. From the standpoint our two countries, we're getting along very well. I would say we've never been closer with Pakistan the way we're right now. And this is a big statement," Trump said.

Khan left for Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum and meet the world leaders, including President Trump, on the sidelines of the annual event which kicked off at the ski resort town of Davos on Tuesday.

The four-day summit marks the 50th anniversary of the forum.

A total of 53 heads of State are on the guest list. Nearly 3,000 participants from 118 countries are expected to attend the event during which political leaders, business executives, heads of international organisations and civil society representatives are set to deliberate on contemporary economic, geopolitical, social and environmental issues.