China moving ahead, talking about temples and mosques will waste our time: Ex-Navy chief

New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

New Delhi, Jan 31: Slamming the BJP over the Jamia firing incident, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Friday said such incidents were possible with the ruling party's leaders inciting people to shoot, and asked Prime minister Narendra Modi to answer whether he stands with violence or non-violence.   

Her attack on the government comes a day after tensions in the Jamia area spiralled on Thursday after a man fired a pistol at a group of anti-CAA protesters, injuring a student, before walking away while waving the firearm above his head and shouting "Yeh lo aazadi" amid heavy police presence in the area.

"When the BJP government ministers and party leaders incite people to shoot, give provocative speeches, then all this becomes possible. The Prime Minister should answer what kind of a Delhi he wants to build?" Priyanka Gandhi said in a tweet in Hindi.

Does the PM stand with violence or non-violence, she asked.

"Does he stand with development or with anarchy?" the Congress general secretary said.

New Delhi, May 18: The nationwide tally of COVID-19 cases crossed one lakh on Monday with more people testing positive for the deadly virus in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and other states, even as a much-relaxed fourth phase of the lockdown began with restarting of market complexes, autos, taxis and inter-state buses in various parts of the country.

The death toll due to COVID-19 crossed the 3,000-mark too.

With an aim to reboot numerous locked down economic activities, authorities across the country ordered reopening of markets, intra-state transport services and even of barber shops and salons in some states, barring in containment zones.

However, schools, colleges, theatres, malls and religious gatherings are among those that would remain shut down, at least till May 31.

India has been under a lockdown since March 25, which was first supposed to be for 21 days or toll April 14, but was later extended till May 3, then further till May 17 and now for another two weeks till May 31.

However, a number of relaxations have been given in the current fourth phase, while states and union territories have also been granted significant flexibility for deciding the red, orange or green zones in terms of the quantum and severity of the virus spread.

In its morning 8 AM update, the Union Health Ministry put the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases 96,169 and the death toll at 3,029.

It also said that 36,824 people have so far recovered from the infection.

However, a news agency tally of figures announced by different states and UTs as of 9.40 PM put the number of those having tested positive for the infection at 1,00,096, with a death toll of 3,078 and recoveries at 38,596 across the country.

Maharashtra topped the nationwide tally with over 35,000 confirmed cases and 1,249 deaths, followed by Tamil Nadu with 11,760 confirmed cases and 81 deaths.

Gujarat has also reported 11,746 confirmed cases, while its death toll is higher than that of Tamil Nadu at 694.

Delhi has also crossed the 10,000 mark in terms of the number of confirmed cases, while its death toll has now reached 160.

Gujarat, during the day, recorded 366 new COVID-19 cases and 35 deaths, including 31 from the worst-hit Ahmedabad, taking the state's case count to 11,746 and the number of fatalities to 694, a health department official said.

Maharashtra reported 2,033 new cases, taking the tally to 35,058.

This was the second consecutive day when the state has reported more than 2,000 COVID-19 cases.

Mumbai alone reported 1,185 fresh cases and 23 more deaths, taking the total count of the city to 21,152 and the fatalities to 757.

Of the 1,185 new cases, 300 samples were tested positive in private laboratories between May 12 and 16.

Kerala also saw 29 new cases -- all but one being returnees from overseas and other states --  raising concerns about the state witnessing a possible third wave of the dreaded virus infection.

The state was first to report the virus infection, but at least twice it has already been seen as having flattened the curve of the infection.

The nationwide count of confirmed infections incidentally crossed the crucial one-lakh mark on a day when the fourth phase of the nationwide lockdown kicked in with several relaxations for economic and public activities, barring in containment zones or areas identified as serious hotspots of the virus infection.

Revising its strategy for COVID-19 testing, ICMR also said on Monday that returnees and migrants who show symptoms for influenza-like illness will be tested for coronavirus infection within seven days of ailment and stressed that no emergency clinical procedure, including deliveries, should be delayed for lack of testing.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in its revised strategy for coronavirus testing in India also added that all hospitalised patients who develop symptoms for influenza-like illness (ILI) and frontline workers involved in containment and mitigation of COVID-19 having such signs will also be tested for coronavirus infection through RT-PCR test.

Besides, asymptomatic direct and high-risk contacts of a confirmed case are to be tested once between day five and day 10 of coming in contact, the new document stated.

Asymptomatic contacts of a confirmed case were being tested once between day five and day 14.

The Health Ministry also said that for every one lakh population, there are 7.1 coronavirus cases in India so far as against 60 globally.

It also said the recovery rate of coronavirus cases in India stood at 38.39 per cent.

Besides, India also joined nearly 120 countries at a crucial conference of the World Health Organisation in pushing for an impartial and comprehensive evaluation of the global response into the coronavirus crisis as well as to examine the origin of the deadly infection.

Since the first case of the deadly coronavirus was reported in China last December, more than 47 lakh people have tested for this virus across the world and over 3 lakh have lost their lives.

India is the 11th most affected country, while the US tops the chart with over 14.9 lakh confirmed cases so far.

China's official tally of confirmed infections is less than 84,000, while it has reported more than 4,600 deaths.