The two-phased polling for the Zilla Panchayat and Taluk Panchayat election on December 26 and 31 has once again put the political parties in Karnataka on the overdrive. The elections assume significance in the wake of a series of land-grabbing scams that have engulfed the BJP government, which almost cost the chief minister BS Yeddyurappa his chair. But, what these elections have also done is to give a breather to the beleaguered chief minister, who was left clutching at straws just a couple of weeks ago.
The ZP, TP polls will also decide the course of the Karnataka polity as the results are crucial for all the three major players – BJP, Congress and the JDS. Though the term of the present assembly only ends in 2013, the outcome might force a mid-term poll given the build up that has preceded the local body elections. The elections will also put to test the future of the leaders of all the three parties namely Yeddyurappa, HD Kumaraswamy and Siddaramaiah.
No doubt the elections are a matter of prestige for the beleaguered Yeddyurappa, who has shamelessly hung on to power despite charges of corruption and nepotism. Though it is not given that he will continue as CM if he wins a favourable mandate, his position will become more tenable after such a result. The statement made by the national president of the party Nitin Gadkari during his recent visit to Bangalore ruling out a change of guard was in fact a message to the majority Lingayat community in the state to back the party in the elections.
Despite his public posturing and the series of advertisement campaigns ‘exposing’ Deve Gowda’s illegal activities, Yeddyurappa continues to be a leader, who has lost the trust of the masses. The image of the government took a beating after Lokayukta, in a historic move, filed an FIR against minister Katta Subramanya Naidu over an alleged land scam. Though Katta’s resignation has brought a temporary relief to the government, the looming threat of more Lokayukta action has left the first BJP government of south India on the tenterhooks.
Whether the growing resentment and anger among the public against the corrupt BJP government will reflect on election results is still uncertain. But the overall perception is that the fate of the local body elections are not so much decided on the stale level controversies than the local issues, caste and the money power. Many a times the developments happening at the national and state level will become immaterial for the voter when he turns out to select his immediate representative.
Interestingly, the chief minister himself has declared that the ongoing corruption allegations and the inquiry are not an election issue in the ZP and TP polls. He has also made it clear that the results could not be considered as a ‘referendum’ on his performance. It reveals Yeddyurappa’s lack of confidence and also this is a classic case of him wanting to eat the cake and keep it too. It would have been highly impossible for the party high-command, which became a butt of ridicule after the recent tamasha, to ask Yeddyurappa to step down if he had gone to the polls declaring that the results would be his litmus test.
Similarly, the new chief of Congress in the state G Parameshwar also has a higher stake in the outcome of the elections. For the highly educated leader form the Dalit community, this is his first go at the hustings and any negative result would weaken his hold over the party, which is vertically divided on factors like caste, loyalty and also on outsiders and natives (Moolanivasigalu mathu valasigaru). More importantly Congress has not won a single election in the last two and half years under RV Deshpande. So the onus of ending the losing streak is on Parameshwar and a positive result will help the party to tighten the noose around the Yeddyurappa’s neck and demand for the dissolution of the Assembly.
But the problems faced by Parameshwar and the leader of the party in the Assembly Siddaramaiah are many and varied. The party seems to be in a deep slumber and has failed to salvage itself after the crushing defeat in the Assembly polls. The party depends heavily on the support of Dalits, minorities and backward classes. In a triangular fight, it is highly possible that these votes would again get divided to the detriment of the Congress. The Lingayat leaders of the party are still sulking and there is not even a single leader in the northern Karnataka who enjoys power except Mallikarjuna Kharge. But the problem with Kharges and Dharam Singhs are that they are not able to ensure victory to their own sons.
The backing of the other dominant community, Vokkaligas, has eluded the Congress for a long time. It was a master stroke on the part of JDS leader Deve Gowda to turn down any truck with the Congress in the polls. The JDS once again wants to exhibit its sway over the Vokkaliga vote bank and thereby send a message to the Congress highcommand that the party is going to be the king-maker once again in the Assembly elections. Though JDS is limited to certain pockets of the state, it has the advantage of a workaholic and energetic leader in Kumaraswamy straddling the party affairs. It is not a secret that both BJP and Congress leaders have a hidden admiration for the JDS leader.
Having brought the BJP government to its knees, Kumaraswamy and the JDS are in a buoyant mood and will be eager to reap electoral dividend of their effort. The former chief minister can proudly claim the credit for forcing Yeddyurappa to take floor test twice in a fortnight after triggering a coup within the BJP ranks. The series of scams involving Yeddyurappa unearthed by HDK again left the embattled chief minister to run for cover. Hence it made a lot of sense when HDK decided to go it alone in the forthcoming elections after establishing him as the most vibrant and daring leader in the present scenario.
When Congress is battling for survival and waiting for things to happen, Kumaraswamy took proactive steps to check the halt of BJP. Though he may be accused of handing over the state to the BJP on a platter, he seems to be in a mood to make up for the blunder by unleashing a series of blows against Yeddyurappa. That he has so far not succeeded in delivering the knock-out punch is mainly because of the lack of clarity and urgency on the part of Congress. The principal opposition party in the state seems to be in an utter mess and do not even have a plan in place in the event of the BJP government’s exit. A remarkable performance in the local body elections may give Kumaraswamy the license to go for the kill and act as the perfect tonic before the inevitable mid-term elections.
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