In Karnataka Congress is facing a difficult situation for the last seven years. It has tasted defeats in successive elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls of 2004. The party suffered a humiliating setback in 2008 Assembly election and the subsequent bypolls forced on the voters of a few Assembly constituencies, thanks to ‘Operation Lotus’
However, those who follow Karnataka politics closely know it too well that Congress had endured much worse situation than it itself in today. During 1983-89 the Congress party had to sit in the Opposition for the first time after Janata Party – Janata Dal registered its maiden triumph in the State Assembly. During those seven years, several elections were held and Janata Party had continued its dominance. When Janata Dal came to power for the second time (1994-1999) the Congress had to face a horrible situation.
The traditional vote bank had deserted Congress owing a number of reasons, including the demolition of Babri Masjid. Congress had to eat a humble pie in the 1994 Assembly elections and the misery continued in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections as well. In the Assembly election all that Congress could manage was 35 seats. Its vote share had plummeted to 27.21 per cent. In the Lok Sabha election Congress had to be satisfied with five of the 28 seats, but still its vote share was a healthy 30.29 per cent. In fact, the performance of Congress in these two elections can be easily termed as the party’s worst show in its electoral history.
Despite the seemingly adverse situation, the workers did not lose heart and in 1999 Congress came back to power. However, the party is again in the doldrums, although the situation is not as utterly hopeless as it was in 1994 and 1999. There is a palpable sense of pessimism in the rank and file of the party. The workers are really upset following the successive electoral defeats in the last three years. This is quite understandable. The aggressive brand of politics practiced by the BJP and the mass exodus of the leaders from the dominant communities to the party have left even the Congress leadership worried.
The poor show of the Congress can, in fact, be attributed to the lack of efficient leadership and the failure to contain fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes or secular votes. The BJP has come to power after a sustained struggle spanning over two decades. In the four Assembly elections held in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008, the percentage of votes secured by the BJP has seen a steady increase. But, significantly the party’s vote share still remains lower than the percentage of votes garnered by Congress.
Although BJP secured power in 2008 by securing 110 seats, the party polled two lakh fewer votes than the Congress. If you analyse the results of the elections, you will understand that even if the Congress had managed to secure five per cent more votes, the situation would have been totally different. This would have made a huge difference to the 66 per cent anti-BJP votes and Congress would have easily garnered additional 50-odd seats.
It is a fact that secular votes get divided between Congress and the JD(S). In the 2004 Assembly elections Congress had managed to secure 35.28 per cent votes while JD(S) had netted 20.59 per cent. However, BJP, which managed only 33.86 per cent votes, ended up winning 79 seats, much higher than the tally of the Congress and the JD(S). In the 2008 elections, Congress and JD(S) polled 34.59 per cent and 19.57 per cent votes respectively. But BJP, with 33.86 per cent vote share, managed to install its first-ever government in South India.
It is evident that the division of anti-BJP votes has immensely helped the BJP in its march towards the seat of power. JD(S) had realized this fact and was looking forward to an electoral understanding with the Congress in order to force BJP out of power and install another coalition government in Karnataka. However, Congress did not send any signals to its former ruling partner. In fact, all political pundits are of the unanimous opinion that any delay in dislodging the BJP government will weaken the chances of ending the saffron party’s run of success in the State. This gives more time for BJP to strengthen its cadre and party by using both moral and immoral means.
Why is Congress not learning from the repeated electoral reverses? Is the century-old party is waiting for more setbacks to think wake up from the slumber? These are the questions many are asking. Drastic measures are required to strengthen the party in Karnataka. Unfortunately, no clear signal has emerged from the party high command with regard to either electoral alliance with the JD(S) or a post-poll pact with the Deve Gowda’s party. In fact, there are differences within the Karantaka Pradesh Congress Committee over the issue. Few leaders feel that a pact with the JD(S) was the only option to avert division of votes. They also show the statistics of the 2008 and 2009 elections to put across their viewpoint. According to them, the BJP could not have grabbed power in the State or won 19 out of 28 seats if there had been an electoral understanding with the JD(S). However, the faction in the Congress which is opposed to any electoral truck, strongly argue that any understanding with the JD(S) will help the regional party more than strengthening its own base.
Today JD(S) is confined to a family. It clout is limited to three four district. The leaders of that party are dreaming of getting a cabinet berth in the event of a pre-poll alliance with Congress. Over the last seven years, the support base of the party has gradually dwindled. On the other hand the expectations and ambitions of Deve Gowda and his family has scaled new heights. In fact, it does not have a presence in majority of the districts of Karnataka. When it went to polls following the split of the party, it secured only 10.42 per cent of votes. Immediately after the election, as many as six MLAs who had been elected from Congress symbol quit the party and joined JD (S). Among them were five MLAs who had been elected from north Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Senior leaders like M.P. Prakash and P.G.R. Sindhia joined the bandwagon. JD(S) immensely benefited from these defections in the 2004 election, it surprised everyone by improving its vote share to 20.59 per cent and the tally of seats to 58. The anti-BJP votes had seen a major division during this election and as a result no party was in a position to form the government on its own. Until that election, the vote share of the BJP had not grown to a level (28.49 per cent) which would help it to capture power.
In the 2008 elections, JD(S) had fielded 218 candidates and only 28 got elected to the Assembly. As many as 105 candidates lost their deposits. Among the 28 winners, only nine were from the 12 districts of the north Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka region. This region constitutes 96 assembly seats. In fact, JD(S) could not open its account in as many as 13 districts. In the Lok Sabha elections held the following year, only three candidates got elected among the 21 candidates the party fielded. It did not contest elections in the remaining 7 seats. The percentage of vote polled by the party was 13.57. As many as 11 candidates lost their deposits. Among those who lost, only one candidate stood second. The three seats that jD(S) won and the seat where it came second were part of predominantly Vokkaliga-majority belt consisting of Hassan, Mandya, Bangalore rural and Tumkur. Interestingly, among the 28 seats it won during the 98 Assembly elections as many as 15 seats came under this geographical area. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, 50 per cent of the 33.35 votes the JD(S) polled were recorded from only four districts.
If JD(S) returns to power piggybacking on Congress support, there is no doubt that the Gowda’s party will try to strengthen its base across the State. The division of anti-BJP votes in the future will also become more pronounced closing the door permanently for the Congress to regain power on its own strength. Today the party is not in a position to form a government on its own in states like Jammu Kashmir, Kerala and Maharashtra. Similarly, once the party enters into poll pact with JD(S), its position will be that of Vikram in the celebrated mythological tale of Vikram and Bethal. The Congress will have to piggyback JD(S) every time the State faced an election.
(The writer is a MLC and a senior journalist based in Bidar)
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