Can Congress regain power in Karnataka on its own?

[email protected] (CD Network)
February 1, 2012

PS_1Feb

In Karnataka Congress is facing a difficult situation for the last seven years. It has tasted defeats in successive elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls of 2004. The party suffered a humiliating setback in 2008 Assembly election and the subsequent bypolls forced on the voters of a few Assembly constituencies, thanks to ‘Operation Lotus’

However, those who follow Karnataka politics closely know it too well that Congress had endured much worse situation than it itself in today. During 1983-89 the Congress party had to sit in the Opposition for the first time after Janata Party – Janata Dal registered its maiden triumph in the State Assembly. During those seven years, several elections were held and Janata Party had continued its dominance. When Janata Dal came to power for the second time (1994-1999) the Congress had to face a horrible situation.

The traditional vote bank had deserted Congress owing a number of reasons, including the demolition of Babri Masjid. Congress had to eat a humble pie in the 1994 Assembly elections and the misery continued in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections as well. In the Assembly election all that Congress could manage was 35 seats. Its vote share had plummeted to 27.21 per cent. In the Lok Sabha election Congress had to be satisfied with five of the 28 seats, but still its vote share was a healthy 30.29 per cent. In fact, the performance of Congress in these two elections can be easily termed as the party’s worst show in its electoral history.

Despite the seemingly adverse situation, the workers did not lose heart and in 1999 Congress came back to power. However, the party is again in the doldrums, although the situation is not as utterly hopeless as it was in 1994 and 1999. There is a palpable sense of pessimism in the rank and file of the party. The workers are really upset following the successive electoral defeats in the last three years. This is quite understandable. The aggressive brand of politics practiced by the BJP and the mass exodus of the leaders from the dominant communities to the party have left even the Congress leadership worried.

The poor show of the Congress can, in fact, be attributed to the lack of efficient leadership and the failure to contain fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes or secular votes. The BJP has come to power after a sustained struggle spanning over two decades. In the four Assembly elections held in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008, the percentage of votes secured by the BJP has seen a steady increase. But, significantly the party’s vote share still remains lower than the percentage of votes garnered by Congress.

Although BJP secured power in 2008 by securing 110 seats, the party polled two lakh fewer votes than the Congress. If you analyse the results of the elections, you will understand that even if the Congress had managed to secure five per cent more votes, the situation would have been totally different. This would have made a huge difference to the 66 per cent anti-BJP votes and Congress would have easily garnered additional 50-odd seats.

It is a fact that secular votes get divided between Congress and the JD(S). In the 2004 Assembly elections Congress had managed to secure 35.28 per cent votes while JD(S) had netted 20.59 per cent. However, BJP, which managed only 33.86 per cent votes, ended up winning 79 seats, much higher than the tally of the Congress and the JD(S). In the 2008 elections, Congress and JD(S) polled 34.59 per cent and 19.57 per cent votes respectively. But BJP, with 33.86 per cent vote share, managed to install its first-ever government in South India.

It is evident that the division of anti-BJP votes has immensely helped the BJP in its march towards the seat of power. JD(S) had realized this fact and was looking forward to an electoral understanding with the Congress in order to force BJP out of power and install another coalition government in Karnataka. However, Congress did not send any signals to its former ruling partner. In fact, all political pundits are of the unanimous opinion that any delay in dislodging the BJP government will weaken the chances of ending the saffron party’s run of success in the State. This gives more time for BJP to strengthen its cadre and party by using both moral and immoral means.

Why is Congress not learning from the repeated electoral reverses? Is the century-old party is waiting for more setbacks to think wake up from the slumber? These are the questions many are asking. Drastic measures are required to strengthen the party in Karnataka. Unfortunately, no clear signal has emerged from the party high command with regard to either electoral alliance with the JD(S) or a post-poll pact with the Deve Gowda’s party. In fact, there are differences within the Karantaka Pradesh Congress Committee over the issue. Few leaders feel that a pact with the JD(S) was the only option to avert division of votes. They also show the statistics of the 2008 and 2009 elections to put across their viewpoint. According to them, the BJP could not have grabbed power in the State or won 19 out of 28 seats if there had been an electoral understanding with the JD(S). However, the faction in the Congress which is opposed to any electoral truck, strongly argue that any understanding with the JD(S) will help the regional party more than strengthening its own base.

Today JD(S) is confined to a family. It clout is limited to three four district. The leaders of that party are dreaming of getting a cabinet berth in the event of a pre-poll alliance with Congress. Over the last seven years, the support base of the party has gradually dwindled. On the other hand the expectations and ambitions of Deve Gowda and his family has scaled new heights. In fact, it does not have a presence in majority of the districts of Karnataka. When it went to polls following the split of the party, it secured only 10.42 per cent of votes. Immediately after the election, as many as six MLAs who had been elected from Congress symbol quit the party and joined JD (S). Among them were five MLAs who had been elected from north Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Senior leaders like M.P. Prakash and P.G.R. Sindhia joined the bandwagon. JD(S) immensely benefited from these defections in the 2004 election, it surprised everyone by improving its vote share to 20.59 per cent and the tally of seats to 58. The anti-BJP votes had seen a major division during this election and as a result no party was in a position to form the government on its own. Until that election, the vote share of the BJP had not grown to a level (28.49 per cent) which would help it to capture power.

In the 2008 elections, JD(S) had fielded 218 candidates and only 28 got elected to the Assembly. As many as 105 candidates lost their deposits. Among the 28 winners, only nine were from the 12 districts of the north Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka region. This region constitutes 96 assembly seats. In fact, JD(S) could not open its account in as many as 13 districts. In the Lok Sabha elections held the following year, only three candidates got elected among the 21 candidates the party fielded. It did not contest elections in the remaining 7 seats. The percentage of vote polled by the party was 13.57. As many as 11 candidates lost their deposits. Among those who lost, only one candidate stood second. The three seats that jD(S) won and the seat where it came second were part of predominantly Vokkaliga-majority belt consisting of Hassan, Mandya, Bangalore rural and Tumkur. Interestingly, among the 28 seats it won during the 98 Assembly elections as many as 15 seats came under this geographical area. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, 50 per cent of the 33.35 votes the JD(S) polled were recorded from only four districts.

If JD(S) returns to power piggybacking on Congress support, there is no doubt that the Gowda’s party will try to strengthen its base across the State. The division of anti-BJP votes in the future will also become more pronounced closing the door permanently for the Congress to regain power on its own strength. Today the party is not in a position to form a government on its own in states like Jammu Kashmir, Kerala and Maharashtra. Similarly, once the party enters into poll pact with JD(S), its position will be that of Vikram in the celebrated mythological tale of Vikram and Bethal. The Congress will have to piggyback JD(S) every time the State faced an election.

(The writer is a MLC and a senior journalist based in Bidar)



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Ram Puniyani
July 20,2020

As Covid 19 has created havoc all rounds, the rulers of certain countries are using it to further intensify their set agendas. The democratic freedoms are being curtailed in certain forms, the reaction to which has come in America in the form of a campaign, which is opposing “stifling” cultural climate that is imposing “ideological conformity” and weakening “norms of open debate and toleration of differences”. In India similar intimidations have been intensified. In addition the occasion has been used by the sectarian forces first to link the spread of Corona to Muslim community and now in the name of reducing the burden of curriculum certain chapters on core concepts related to Indian nationalism are being deleted from the text books.

It has been reported that chapters on federalism, citizenship, nationalism, secularism, Human Rights, Legal Aid and Local Self Government and the like are being dropped. Education has been an important area for communal forces and they constantly keep saying that leftists have dominated the curriculum content, it suffers from the impact of Macaulay, Marx and Mohammad and so needs to be Indianized. The first such attempt was done when BJP came to power in 1998 as NDA and had Murli Manohar Joshi as the MHRD minister. He brought the changes which were termed as ‘saffronization of education’. Their focus is more on social science. Some of the highlights of this were introduction of subjects like Astrology and Paurohitya, and chapters defending caste system, nationalism of the type of Hitler was praised.

With defeat of NDA in 2004, the UPA did try to rectify some of these distortions. Again after 2014 the RSS affiliates working in the area of education have been active, interacting with MHRD officials to impress upon them the need to change the curriculum matching with their Hindu nationalist agenda. Its ‘Shiksha Sanskriti Utthan Nyas’ has been asking for removal of English, Urdu words in the texts. It has asked for removal of thoughts of Rabindranath Tagore on Nationalism, extracts of autobiography of M F Husain, references to benevolence of Muslim rulers, references to BJP being Hindu party, apology of Dr. Manmohan Singh for anti Sikh pogrom of 1984, the reference to killings of Gujarat carnage in 2002 among others. This they call as Bhartiykaran of syllabus.

As RSS is a multithreaded hydra one of its pracharak Dinanath Batra has set up ‘Shiksha Bachao Abhiyan Samiti’ which has been pressurizing various publishers to drop the books which are not conforming to their ideology. One recalls their pressuring withdrawal of Wendy Doniger’s ‘The Hindus’, as it does present the ancient India through the concerns of dalits and women. Mr. Batra has already come out with a set of nine books for school curriculum, giving the RSS view of the past and RSS understanding of social sciences. These have already been translated into Gujarati and thousands of the sets of these books are being used in Gujarat Schools.

The present step of deleting parts of curriculum which gives the basics of Indian Nationalism, secularism and human rights is a further step in the same direction. These are the topics which have made the Hindu nationalists uncomfortable during last few years. They have been defaming secularism. They removed it from the preamble of Indian constitution, when they put out an ad on the eve of Republic day in 2015. From last few decades since the Ram Temple movement was brought up, simultaneously the secular ethos of India’s freedom movement and secular values of Indian constitution have been constantly criticized. Many an RSS ideologues and BJP leaders have been asking for change of Indian Constitution for this very reason.

Secularism is part of the concept of Indian nationalism. In the name of religious nationalism, sectarian divisive nationalism they have been attacking various student leaders in particular. When we study Nationalism, the very genesis of Indian nationalism tells us the plurality of our freedom movement with its anti colonial roots. The struggle was for Indian nationalism and so the Muslims and Hindu communalists kept aloof from this great struggle against colonial masters, it was this struggle which built the Indian nation with all its diversity.

Similarly as we have equal rights as citizens the chapters on citizenship are being dropped. Federalism has been the core part of India’s administrative and political structure. As the dictatorial tendencies are becoming stronger, federalism is bound to suffer and that explains the dropping of this subject. Democracy is decentralization of power. Power reaching the lowermost part of the system, the villages and average citizens. This got reflected in Local self Government. The power is distributed among villages, cities, state and center. By removing chapters on federalism and local self government, the indications of the ideology of ruling party are on display.

While we are not dealing with all the portents of the planned omissions, one more aspect that related to dropping of chapter on Human rights needs our attention. The concept of Human rights and dignity are interlinked. This concept of Human rights also has international ramifications. India is signatory to many an UN covenants related to Human rights. The indications are clear that now rights will be for the few elite and ‘duties’ for the large deprived sections will be put on the forefront.

In a way this incidental ‘Corona gifted opportunity’ to the ruling Government is being fully used to enhance the agenda of ruling party in the arena of Educational Curriculum. The part of curriculum with which the ruling party is uncomfortable is being removed. This act of omission does supplement their other acts of commission in changing the shape of educational curriculum, which are reflected in RSS affiliates’ suggestions to MHRD regarding Bhartiyakaran of contents of syllabus. As per this the things like regarding the great epics like Ramayana and Mahabharata as History, the things like India having all the stem cell technology, plastic surgery, aviation science etc. will have a place in the changes planned by communal forces!

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Ram Puniyani
January 26,2020

During last couple of decades we have been witnessing the coming up of various statues in different parts of the country. There is diverse political logic and different set of political tendencies for erecting these statues. When Mayawati was UP CM, she got multiple of her own statues made, in addition to many statues of major dalit icons, irrespective of the criticism against that act. As per her strategy it was a symbol of identity of dalit assertion. The biggest statue to come up was that of Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel, a lifelong Congressman, whom RSS combine is trying to appropriate. This statue of Unity was ‘Made in China’. The clever trick was that the same forces were behind this statue, which was banned by Patel in the aftermath of Gandhi murder. Interestingly while currently BJP is blaming Congress for Partition of India, ironically it was Sardar Patel who was in the committee which gave final stamp of approval for the partition of India.

There is also a talk in UP, where the Ram temple campaign yielded rich electoral dividends for BJP, to have tallest statue of Lord Ram in Ayodhya. In a state where children are dying in hospitals due to lack of Oxygen cylinders, a huge budgetary allocation will be required for such project. While on statues one should also remember that in Maharashtra a tall statue of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is underway in Arabian Sea, near Mumbai. Only few voices of protest against it came up, e.g. that of renowned journalist, now, MP, Kumar Ketkar, whose house was vandalised for his opposing the move on the grounds that same massive amount can be utilized for welfare-development activities in the state.

On the back of this comes a comparatively low budget 114 feet tall statue of Jesus Christ in Karnataka, in Kappala hills Harobele village, where Christian pilgrims have been thronging from last several centuries. The land for this has been donated by Congress leader Shivaprasad and his brother, a Congress MP. It is planned to be carved out from a single rock. The plan of this statue is being opposed by those who have been behind most of the statue projects so far. Hindu Jagran Vedike, VHP, RSS are up in arms saying that they will not let this come up. There are various arguments cited for this opposition. It is being said that this was a place of worship of Lord Munnieshwara (a form of Lord Shiva).

More than this it is being argued that Shivakumar is trying to please his Italian boss in the party. Also that this will bring back the period of slavery of foreign rule, the colonial rule of British. As such this opposition is more in tune with the ideology of RSS combine, which has been for a statue here and a statue there. Their politics regards Christianity as a ‘foreign religion’! It is true that in Citizenship Amendment Act, they have not excluded Christianity while other religion, which they regard as ‘Foreign’ i.e. Islam. Here they are using a different logic, that the countries from where persecuted minorities are coming, are Muslim countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangla Desh.

In India the major targeting by RSS combine has been against Muslims, but Christians are also not spared. Starting in the decade of 1980, an intense propaganda has been going on that Christian Missionaries are converting. As RSS affiliate Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram became active in Adivasi areas, the likes of Swami Aseemanand, Swami Laxmanand and followers of Aasaram bapu spread out in Tribal areas. They started their programs to popularise Shabri and Hanuman, with congregations like Shabri Kumbh being regularly organized in these areas. The aim was to Hinduize the people in those areas.

The first major anti Christian violence came up in the ghastly form of burning alive of Pastor Graham Steward Stains along with his two minor sons Timothy and Philip. RSS affiliate Bajrang Dal's Dara Siingh aka Rajendra Pal was behind this and he is serving the life term for that. At the same time Wadhva Commission was appointed to investigate this crime which shook the country and President K.R. Narayan termed it as the one belonging to the inventory of the black deeds of human history.

The Wadhva commission report pointed out that there was no statistical significant change in the region where the pastor was working. Similarly the national figures tell us that the Christian population, if at all, has marginally declined in last five decades as per the census figures. They stand like this, percentage of Christians in population, 1971-2.60, 1981- 2.44, 1991-2.34, 2001-2.30 and 2011-2.30. There are arguments that some people are converting to Christianity but are not revealing their religion. This may be true in case of miniscule percentage of dalits, who may not reveal there conversion, as they stand to loose reservation provisions if they convert.

The anti Christian violence is scattered and is below the radar most of the places. There was massive valence in Kandhamal, Orissa, when on the pretext that Christians have murdered Swami Laxmananand, a massive violence was unleashed in 2008. On regular basis prayer meetings of Christians are attacked on the pretext that these are attempts at conversion. While there is a huge demand for the schools and colleges run by Christian groups, in Adivasis areas and remote areas the work of Swamis is on.

Now the trend is to dump Christian traditions. Since Ramnath Kovind became President, the usual practice of Carol Singers visiting Rashtrapati Bhavan has been stopped. In the army retreat so far ‘Abide with me’ by Scottish poet, Henri Francis Lyte, a Christian song, a favourite of Gandhi, has been dropped. The Christian minorities have perceived the threat in various forms. Currently they are as much part of the protests against CAA, NPR and NRIC as any other community.

While statues and identity issues cannot have primacy over the social development issues, it cannot be selective. To oppose Jesus Christ statue while spending fortunes for other statues is a part of the agenda of RSS combine, which is unfolding itself in various forms. opposition to Jesus Christ statue being yet another step in the direction.

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Ram Puniyani
February 4,2020

As democracy is seeping in slowly all over the world, there is an organization which is monitoring the degree of democracy in the individual countries, The Economist Intelligence Unit. As such in each country there are diverse factors which on one hand work to deepen it, while others weaken it. Overall there is a march from theoretical democracy to substantive one. The substantive democracy will herald not just the formal equality, freedom and community feeling in the country but will be founded on the substantive quality of these values. In India while the introduction of modern education, transport, communication laid the backdrop of beginning of the process, the direction towards deepening of the process begins with Mahatma Gandhi when he led the non-cooperation movement in 1920, in which average people participated. The movement of freedom for India went on to become the ‘greatest ever mass movement’ in the World.

The approval and standards for democracy were enshrined in Indian Constitution, which begins ‘We the people of India’, and was adopted on 26th January 1950. With this Constitution and the policies adopted by Nehru the process of democratization started seeping further, the dreaded Emergency in 1975, which was lifted later restored democratic freedoms in some degree. This process of democratisation is facing an opposition since the decade of 1990s after the launch of Ram Temple agitation, and has seen the further erosion with BJP led Government coming to power in 2014. The state has been proactively attacking civil liberties, pluralism and participative political culture with democracy becoming flawed in a serious way. And this is what got reflected in the slipping of India by ten places, to 51st, in 2019. On the index of democracy India slipped down from the score of 7.23 to 6.90. The impact of sectarian BJP politics is writ on the state of the nation, country.

Ironically this lowering of score has come at a time when the popular protests, the deepening of democracy has been given a boost and is picking up with the Shaheen Bagh protests. The protest which began in Shaheen Bagh, Delhi in the backdrop of this Government getting the Citizenship amendment Bill getting converted into an act and mercilessly attacking the students of Jamia Milia Islamia, Aligarh Muslim University along with high handed approach in Jamia Nagar and neighbouring areas.  From 15th December 2019, the laudable protest is on.

It is interesting to note that the lead in this protest has been taken by the Muslim women, from the Burqa-Hijab clad to ‘not looking Muslim’ women and was joined by students and youth from all the communities, and later by the people from all the communities. Interestingly this time around this Muslim women initiated protest has contrast from all the protests which earlier had begun by Muslims. The protests opposing Shah Bano Judgment, the protests opposing entry of women in Haji Ali, the protests opposing the Government move to abolish triple Talaq. So far the maulanas from top were initiating the protests, with beard and skull cap dominating the marches and protests. The protests were by and large for protecting Sharia, Islam and were restricted to Muslim community participating.

This time around while Narendra Modi pronounced that ‘protesters can be identified by their clothes’, those who can be identified by their external appearance are greatly outnumbered by all those identified or not identified by their appearance.

The protests are not to save Islam or any other religion but to protect Indian Constitution. The slogans are structured around ‘Defence of democracy and Indian Constitution’. The theme slogans are not Allahu Akbar’ or Nara-E-Tadbeer’ but around preamble of Indian Constitution. The lead songs have come to be Faiz Ahmad Faiz’s ‘Hum Dekhenge’, a protest against Zia Ul Haq’s attempts to crush democracy in the name of religion. Another leading protest song is from Varun Grover, ‘Tanashah Aayenge…Hum Kagaz nahin Dikhayenge’, a call to civil disobedience against the CAA-NRC exercise and characterising the dictatorial nature of the current ruling regime.

While BJP was telling us that primary problem of Muslim women is Triple talaq, the Muslim women led movements has articulated that primary problem is the very threat to Muslim community. All other communities, cutting across religious lines, those below poverty line, those landless and shelter less people also see that if the citizenship of Muslims can be threatened because of lack of some papers, they will be not far behind in the victimization process being unleashed by this Government.

While CAA-NRC has acted as the precipitating factor, the policies of Modi regime, starting from failure to fulfil the tall promises of bringing back black money, the cruel impact of demonetisation, the rising process of commodities, the rising unemployment, the divisive policies of the ruling dispensation are the base on which these protest movements are standing. The spread of the protest movement, spontaneous but having similar message is remarkable. Shaheen Bagh is no more just a physical space; it’s a symbol of resistance against the divisive policies, against the policies which are increasing the sufferings of poor workers, the farmers and the average sections of society.

What is clear is that as identity issues, emotive issues like Ram Temple, Cow Beef, Love Jihad and Ghar Wapasi aimed to divide the society, Shaheen Bagh is uniting the society like never before. The democratisation process which faced erosion is getting a boost through people coming together around the Preamble of Indian Constitution, singing of Jan Gan Man, waving of tricolour and upholding the national icons like Gandhi, Bhagat Singh, Ambedkar and Maulana Azad. One can feel the sentiments which built India; one can see the courage of people to protect what India’s freedom movement and Indian Constitution gave them.

Surely the communal forces are spreading canards and falsehood against the protests. As such these protests which is a solid foundation of our democracy. The spontaneity of the movement is a strength which needs to be channelized to uphold Indian Constitution and democratic ethos of our beloved country.

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