Can Congress regain power in Karnataka on its own?

[email protected] (CD Network)
February 23, 2012

PS_Feb23

In Karnataka Congress is in a difficult situation for over seven years now. It has faced defeats in successive elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls of 2004. The party suffered a humiliating setback in 2008 Assembly election and the bypolls forced on the voters of a few Assembly constituencies next year, thanks to ‘Operation Lotus’

However, those who follow Karnataka politics closely know it too well that Congress had endured much worse situation than it itself in today. During 1983-89 the Congress party had to sit in the Opposition for the first time after Janata Party – Janata Dal registered its maiden triumph in the State Assembly. During those seven years, several elections were held and Janata Party had continued its dominance. When Janata Dal came to power for the second time (1994-1999) the Congress had to face a horrible situation.

The traditional vote bank had deserted Congress owing a number of reasons, including the demolition of Babri Masjid. Congress had to eat a humble pie in the 1994 Assembly elections and the misery continued in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections as well. In the Assembly election all that Congress could manage was 35 seats. Its vote share had plummeted to 27.21 per cent. In the Lok Sabha election Congress had to be satisfied with five of the 28 seats, but still its vote share was a healthy 30.29 per cent. In fact, the performance of Congress in these two elections can be easily termed as the party’s worst show in its electoral history.

Despite the seemingly adverse situation, the workers did not lose heart and in 1999 Congress came back to power. However, the party is again in the doldrums, although the situation is not as utterly hopeless as it was in 1994 and 1999. There is a palpable sense of pessimism in the rank and file of the party. The workers are really upset following the successive electoral defeats in the last three years. This is quite understandable. The aggressive brand of politics practiced by the BJP and the mass exodus of the leaders from the dominant communities to the party have left even the Congress leadership worried.

The poor show of the Congress can, in fact, be attributed to the lack of efficient leadership and the failure to contain fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes or secular votes. The BJP has come to power after a sustained struggle spanning over two decades. In the four Assembly elections held in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008, the percentage of votes secured by the BJP has seen a steady increase. But, significantly the party’s vote share still remains lower than the percentage of votes garnered by Congress.

Although BJP secured power in 2008 by securing 110 seats, the party polled two lakh fewer votes than the Congress. If you analyse the results of the elections, you will understand that even if the Congress had managed to secure five per cent more votes, the situation would have been totally different. This would have made a huge difference to the 66 per cent anti-BJP votes and Congress would have easily garnered additional 50-odd seats.

It is a fact that secular votes get divided between Congress and the JD(S). In the 2004 Assembly elections Congress had managed to secure 35.28 per cent votes while JD(S) had netted 20.59 per cent. However, BJP, which managed only 33.86 per cent votes, ended up winning 79 seats, much higher than the tally of the Congress and the JD(S). In the 2008 elections, Congress and JD(S) polled 34.59 per cent and 19.57 per cent votes respectively. But BJP, with 33.86 per cent vote share, managed to install its first-ever government in South India.

It is evident that the division of anti-BJP votes has immensely helped the BJP in its march towards the seat of power. JD(S) had realized this fact and was looking forward to an electoral understanding with the Congress in order to force BJP out of power and install another coalition government in Karnataka. However, Congress did not send any signals to its former ruling partner. In fact, all political pundits are of the unanimous opinion that any delay in dislodging the BJP government will weaken the chances of ending the saffron party’s run of success in the State. This gives more time for BJP to strengthen its cadre and party by using both moral and immoral means.

Why is Congress not learning from the repeated electoral reverses? Is the century-old party is waiting for more setbacks to think wake up from the slumber? These are the questions many are asking. Drastic measures are required to strengthen the party in Karnataka. Unfortunately, no clear signal has emerged from the party high command with regard to either electoral alliance with the JD(S) or a post-poll pact with the Deve Gowda’s party. In fact, there are differences within the Karantaka Pradesh Congress Committee over the issue. Few leaders feel that a pact with the JD(S) was the only option to avert division of votes. They also show the statistics of the 2008 and 2009 elections to put across their viewpoint. According to them, the BJP could not have grabbed power in the State or won 19 out of 28 seats if there had been an electoral understanding with the JD(S). However, the faction in the Congress which is opposed to any electoral truck, strongly argue that any understanding with the JD(S) will help the regional party more than strengthening its own base.

Today JD(S) is confined to a family. It clout is limited to three four district. The leaders of that party are dreaming of getting a cabinet berth in the event of a pre-poll alliance with Congress. Over the last seven years, the support base of the party has gradually dwindled. On the other hand the expectations and ambitions of Deve Gowda and his family has scaled new heights. In fact, it does not have a presence in majority of the districts of Karnataka. When it went to polls following the split of the party, it secured only 10.42 per cent of votes. Immediately after the election, as many as six MLAs who had been elected from Congress symbol quit the party and joined JD (S). Among them were five MLAs who had been elected from north Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Senior leaders like M.P. Prakash and P.G.R. Sindhia joined the bandwagon. JD(S) immensely benefited from these defections in the 2004 election, it surprised everyone by improving its vote share to 20.59 per cent and the tally of seats to 58. The anti-BJP votes had seen a major division during this election and as a result no party was in a position to form the government on its own. Until that election, the vote share of the BJP had not grown to a level (28.49 per cent) which would help it to capture power.

In the 2008 elections, JD(S) had fielded 218 candidates and only 28 got elected to the Assembly. As many as 105 candidates lost their deposits. Among the 28 winners, only nine were from the 12 districts of the north Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka region. This region constitutes 96 assembly seats. In fact, JD(S) could not open its account in as many as 13 districts. In the Lok Sabha elections held the following year, only three candidates got elected among the 21 candidates the party fielded. It did not contest elections in the remaining 7 seats. The percentage of vote polled by the party was 13.57. As many as 11 candidates lost their deposits. Among those who lost, only one candidate stood second. The three seats that jD(S) won and the seat where it came second were part of predominantly Vokkaliga-majority belt consisting of Hassan, Mandya, Bangalore rural and Tumkur. Interestingly, among the 28 seats it won during the 98 Assembly elections as many as 15 seats came under this geographical area. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, 50 per cent of the 33.35 votes the JD(S) polled were recorded from only four districts.

If JD(S) returns to power piggybacking on Congress support, there is no doubt that the Gowda’s party will try to strengthen its base across the State. The division of anti-BJP votes in the future will also become more pronounced closing the door permanently for the Congress to regain power on its own strength. Today the party is not in a position to form a government on its own in states like Jammu Kashmir, Kerala and Maharashtra. Similarly, once the party enters into poll pact with JD(S), its position will be that of Vikram in the celebrated mythological tale of Vikram and Bethal. The Congress will have to piggyback JD(S) every time the State faced an election.

(The writer is a MLC and a senior journalist based in Bidar)


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Ram Puniyani
February 10,2020

Noam Chomsky is one of the leading peace workers in the world. In the wake of America’s attack on Vietnam, he brought out his classic formulation, ‘manufacturing consent’. The phrase explains the state manipulating public opinion to have the public approve of it policies—in this case, the attack of the American state on Vietnam, which was then struggling to free itself from French colonial rule.

In India, we are witness to manufactured hate against religious minorities. This hatred serves to enhance polarisation in society, which undermines India’s democracy and Constitution and promotes support for a Hindu nation. Hate is being manufactured through multiple mechanisms. For example, it manifests in violence against religious minorities. Some recent ghastly expressions of this manufactured hate was the massive communal violence witnessed in Mumbai (1992-93), Gujarat (2002), Kandhamal (2008) and Muzaffarnagar (2013). Its other manifestation was in the form of lynching of those accused of having killed a cow or consumed beef. A parallel phenomenon is the brutal flogging, often to death, of Dalits who deal with animal carcasses or leather.

Yet another form of this was seen when Shambhulal Regar, indoctrinated by the propaganda of Hindu nationalists, burned alive Afrazul Khan and shot the video of the heinous act. For his brutality, he was praised by many. Regar was incited into the act by the propaganda around love jihad. Lately, we have the same phenomenon of manufactured hate taking on even more dastardly proportions as youth related to Hindu nationalist organisations have been caught using pistols, while police authorities look on.

Anurag Thakur, a BJP minster in the central government recently incited a crowd in Delhi to complete his chant of what should happen to ‘traitors of the country...” with a “they should be shot”. Just two days later, a youth brought a pistol to the site of a protest at Jamia Millia Islamia university and shouted “take Azaadi!” and fired it. One bullet hit a student of Jamia. This happened on 30 January, the day Nathuram Godse had shot Mahatma Gandhi in 1948. A few days later, another youth fired near the site of protests against the CAA and NRC at Shaheen Bagh. Soon after, he said that in India, “only Hindus will rule”.

What is very obvious is that the shootings by those associated with Hindu nationalist organisations are the culmination of a long campaign of spreading hate against religious minorities in India in general and against Muslims in particular. The present phase is the outcome of a long and sustained hate campaign, the beginning of which lies in nationalism in the name of religion; Muslim nationalism and Hindu nationalism. This sectarian nationalism picked up the communal view of history and the communal historiography which the British introduced in order to pursue their ‘divide and rule’ policy.

In India what became part of “social common sense” was that Muslim kings had destroyed Hindu temples, that Islam was spread by force, and that it is a foreign religion, and so on. Campaigns, such as the one for a temple dedicated to the Hindu god Rama to be built at the site where the Babri masjid once stood, further deepened the idea of a Muslim as a “temple-destroyer”. Aurangzeb, Tipu Sultan and other Muslim kings were tarnished as the ones who spread Islam by force in the subcontinent. The tragic Partition, which was primarily due to British policies, and was well-supported by communal streams also, was entirely attributed to Muslims. The Kashmir conflict, which is the outcome of regional, ethnic and other historical issues, coupled with the American policy of supporting Pakistan’s ambitions of regional hegemony, (which also fostered the birth of Al-Qaeda), was also attributed to the Muslims.

With recurring incidents of communal violence, these falsehoods went on going deeper into the social thinking. Violence itself led to ghettoisation of Muslims and further broke inter-community social bonds. On the one hand, a ghettoised community is cut off from others and on the other hand the victims come to be presented as culprits. The percolation of this hate through word-of-mouth propaganda, media and re-writing of school curricula, had a strong impact on social attitudes towards the minorities.

In the last couple of decades, the process of manufacturing hate has been intensified by the social media platforms which are being cleverly used by the communal forces. Swati Chaturvedi’s book, I Am a Troll: Inside the Secret World of the BJP’s Digital Army, tells us how the BJP used social media to spread hate. Whatapp University became the source of understanding for large sections of society and hate for the ‘Other’, went up by leaps and bounds. To add on to this process, the phenomenon of fake news was shrewdly deployed to intensify divisiveness.

Currently, the Shaheen Bagh movement is a big uniting force for the country; but it is being demonised as a gathering of ‘anti-nationals’. Another BJP leader has said that these protesters will indulge in crimes like rape. This has intensified the prevalent hate.

While there is a general dominance of hate, the likes of Shambhulal Regar and the Jamia shooter do get taken in by the incitement and act out the violence that is constantly hinted at. The deeper issue involved is the prevalence of hate, misconceptions and biases, which have become the part of social thinking.

These misconceptions are undoing the amity between different religious communities which was built during the freedom movement. They are undoing the fraternity which emerged with the process of India as a nation in the making. The processes which brought these communities together broadly drew from Gandhi, Bhagat Singh and Ambedkar. It is these values which need to be rooted again in the society. The communal forces have resorted to false propaganda against the minorities, and that needs to be undone with sincerity.

Combating those foundational misconceptions which create hatred is a massive task which needs to be taken up by the social organisations and political parties which have faith in the Indian Constitution and values of freedom movement. It needs to be done right away as a priority issue in with a focus on cultivating Indian fraternity yet again.

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Wafa Sultana
April 4,2020

Over the last couple of days when the world was occupied with unifying efforts to fight the deadly Covid19 pandemic, sections of Indian media provided viewers a familiar scapegoat – the Indian Muslims – who are often stereotyped as a community being constantly at loggerheads with the citizenry and the State. Biased media channels were quick to resort to blaming the entire Muslim community for the spread of the disease in the country, thanks to an ill-timed Tablighi Jamaat gathering at its international headquarters in Delhi’s Nizamuddin. Unsurprisingly, the opprobrium was also marked by a sudden spike in WhatsApp forwards of videos with people wearing skullcaps licking spoons and performing Sufi breathing rituals, suggesting some sort of wild conspiracy on the part of the community to spread the virus.  Some media channels were quick to formulate, hypothesize and provide loose definitions of a newly discovered form of Jihad i.e. ‘Corona Jihad ’ thereby vilifying the Islamic faith and its followers.

While the investigation on the culpability of the organizers of the Nizamuddin event is still ongoing, there is enough information to suggest that the meeting was held before any lockdown was in force, and the problem began when there was no way of getting people out once the curfew was announced. Be that as it may, there is little doubt that organizing a meet of such a scale when there is a global pandemic smacks of gross misjudgment, and definitely the organizers should be held accountable if laws or public orders were defied. Attendees who attempt to defy quarantine measures must be dealt with strictly. However, what is alarming is that the focus and narrative have now shifted from the unfortunate event at Nizamuddin to the Tablighi Jamaat itself.

For those not familiar with the Tablighi Jamaat, the organization was founded in 1926 in Mewat by scholar Maulana Mohammad Ilyas. The Jamaat’s main objective was to get Muslim youth to learn and practice pristine Islam shorn of external influences. This is achieved through individuals dedicating time for moral and spiritual upliftment secluded from the rest of the world for a brief period of time. There is no formal membership process. More senior and experienced participants typically travel from one mosque to other delivering talks on religious topics, inviting local youth to attend and then volunteer for a spiritual retreat for a fixed number of days to a mosque in a nearby town or village to present the message to their co-religionists. Contrary to ongoing Islamophobic rhetoric, the movement does not actively proselytize. The focus is rather on getting Muslims to learn the teachings and practices of Islam.  This grassroots India-based movement has now grown to almost all countries with substantial Muslim populations. Its annual meets, or ‘ijtemas’ are among the largest Islamic congregations in the world after the annual Haj. One of the reasons for its popularity and wide network in the subcontinent and wordwide is the fact that it has eschewed the need for scholarly intervention, focusing on peer learning of fundamental beliefs and practice rather than high-falutin ideological debates. The Tablighi Jamaat also distinguishes itself from other Islamic movements through its strictly apolitical nature, with a focus on individual self-improvement rather than political mobilization. Hardships and difficulty in the world are expected to be face through ‘sabr’ (patience) and ‘dua’ (supplication),  than through quest for political power or influence. In terms of ideology, it is very much based on mainstream Sunni Islamic principles derived from the Deobandi school.

So, why is all this background important in the current context? While biased media entities have expectedly brought out their Islamophobic paraphernalia out for full display, more neutral commentators have tried to paint the Tablighi Jamaat as a fringe group and have tried to distance it from 'mainstream Muslims'. While the intent is no doubt innocent, this is a trap we must not fall into. This narrative, unfortunately, is also gaining ground due to apathy some Muslims have for the group, accusing it of being “disconnected from the realities of the world”. Unlike other Muslim organizations and movements, the Tablighi Jamat, by virtue of its political indifference, does not boast of high-profile advocates and savvy spokespersons who can defend it in mainstream or social media.  The use of adjectives such as 'outdated' and 'orthodox' by liberal columnists to describe the Jamaat feeds into the malignant attempt to change the narrative from the control of the spread of the pandemic due to the Nizamuddin gathering to 'raison d'etre' of the organization itself.

A large mainstream religious group like the Tablighi Jamaat with nearly a hundred-year history, normally considered to be peaceful, apolitical and minding its own business is now suddenly being villainized owing to unfortunate circumstances. Biased media reactions filled with disgust and hate seem to feed the Indian public conscience with a danngerous misconception - to be a nominal Muslim is okay but being a practicing one is not.  For those committed to the truth and fighting the spread of Islamophobia, the temptation to throw the entire Tablighi Jamaat under the bus must be resisted.

The writer is a lawyer and research scholar at Qatar University. Her research interests include Islamic law and politics.

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zahoorahmed
 - 
Saturday, 4 Apr 2020

great article! provides a great perspective on tableeg jamat

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Ram Puniyani
January 26,2020

During last couple of decades we have been witnessing the coming up of various statues in different parts of the country. There is diverse political logic and different set of political tendencies for erecting these statues. When Mayawati was UP CM, she got multiple of her own statues made, in addition to many statues of major dalit icons, irrespective of the criticism against that act. As per her strategy it was a symbol of identity of dalit assertion. The biggest statue to come up was that of Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel, a lifelong Congressman, whom RSS combine is trying to appropriate. This statue of Unity was ‘Made in China’. The clever trick was that the same forces were behind this statue, which was banned by Patel in the aftermath of Gandhi murder. Interestingly while currently BJP is blaming Congress for Partition of India, ironically it was Sardar Patel who was in the committee which gave final stamp of approval for the partition of India.

There is also a talk in UP, where the Ram temple campaign yielded rich electoral dividends for BJP, to have tallest statue of Lord Ram in Ayodhya. In a state where children are dying in hospitals due to lack of Oxygen cylinders, a huge budgetary allocation will be required for such project. While on statues one should also remember that in Maharashtra a tall statue of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj is underway in Arabian Sea, near Mumbai. Only few voices of protest against it came up, e.g. that of renowned journalist, now, MP, Kumar Ketkar, whose house was vandalised for his opposing the move on the grounds that same massive amount can be utilized for welfare-development activities in the state.

On the back of this comes a comparatively low budget 114 feet tall statue of Jesus Christ in Karnataka, in Kappala hills Harobele village, where Christian pilgrims have been thronging from last several centuries. The land for this has been donated by Congress leader Shivaprasad and his brother, a Congress MP. It is planned to be carved out from a single rock. The plan of this statue is being opposed by those who have been behind most of the statue projects so far. Hindu Jagran Vedike, VHP, RSS are up in arms saying that they will not let this come up. There are various arguments cited for this opposition. It is being said that this was a place of worship of Lord Munnieshwara (a form of Lord Shiva).

More than this it is being argued that Shivakumar is trying to please his Italian boss in the party. Also that this will bring back the period of slavery of foreign rule, the colonial rule of British. As such this opposition is more in tune with the ideology of RSS combine, which has been for a statue here and a statue there. Their politics regards Christianity as a ‘foreign religion’! It is true that in Citizenship Amendment Act, they have not excluded Christianity while other religion, which they regard as ‘Foreign’ i.e. Islam. Here they are using a different logic, that the countries from where persecuted minorities are coming, are Muslim countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangla Desh.

In India the major targeting by RSS combine has been against Muslims, but Christians are also not spared. Starting in the decade of 1980, an intense propaganda has been going on that Christian Missionaries are converting. As RSS affiliate Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram became active in Adivasi areas, the likes of Swami Aseemanand, Swami Laxmanand and followers of Aasaram bapu spread out in Tribal areas. They started their programs to popularise Shabri and Hanuman, with congregations like Shabri Kumbh being regularly organized in these areas. The aim was to Hinduize the people in those areas.

The first major anti Christian violence came up in the ghastly form of burning alive of Pastor Graham Steward Stains along with his two minor sons Timothy and Philip. RSS affiliate Bajrang Dal's Dara Siingh aka Rajendra Pal was behind this and he is serving the life term for that. At the same time Wadhva Commission was appointed to investigate this crime which shook the country and President K.R. Narayan termed it as the one belonging to the inventory of the black deeds of human history.

The Wadhva commission report pointed out that there was no statistical significant change in the region where the pastor was working. Similarly the national figures tell us that the Christian population, if at all, has marginally declined in last five decades as per the census figures. They stand like this, percentage of Christians in population, 1971-2.60, 1981- 2.44, 1991-2.34, 2001-2.30 and 2011-2.30. There are arguments that some people are converting to Christianity but are not revealing their religion. This may be true in case of miniscule percentage of dalits, who may not reveal there conversion, as they stand to loose reservation provisions if they convert.

The anti Christian violence is scattered and is below the radar most of the places. There was massive valence in Kandhamal, Orissa, when on the pretext that Christians have murdered Swami Laxmananand, a massive violence was unleashed in 2008. On regular basis prayer meetings of Christians are attacked on the pretext that these are attempts at conversion. While there is a huge demand for the schools and colleges run by Christian groups, in Adivasis areas and remote areas the work of Swamis is on.

Now the trend is to dump Christian traditions. Since Ramnath Kovind became President, the usual practice of Carol Singers visiting Rashtrapati Bhavan has been stopped. In the army retreat so far ‘Abide with me’ by Scottish poet, Henri Francis Lyte, a Christian song, a favourite of Gandhi, has been dropped. The Christian minorities have perceived the threat in various forms. Currently they are as much part of the protests against CAA, NPR and NRIC as any other community.

While statues and identity issues cannot have primacy over the social development issues, it cannot be selective. To oppose Jesus Christ statue while spending fortunes for other statues is a part of the agenda of RSS combine, which is unfolding itself in various forms. opposition to Jesus Christ statue being yet another step in the direction.

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