Can Congress regain power in Karnataka on its own?

[email protected] (CD Network)
February 23, 2012

PS_Feb23

In Karnataka Congress is in a difficult situation for over seven years now. It has faced defeats in successive elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls of 2004. The party suffered a humiliating setback in 2008 Assembly election and the bypolls forced on the voters of a few Assembly constituencies next year, thanks to ‘Operation Lotus’

However, those who follow Karnataka politics closely know it too well that Congress had endured much worse situation than it itself in today. During 1983-89 the Congress party had to sit in the Opposition for the first time after Janata Party – Janata Dal registered its maiden triumph in the State Assembly. During those seven years, several elections were held and Janata Party had continued its dominance. When Janata Dal came to power for the second time (1994-1999) the Congress had to face a horrible situation.

The traditional vote bank had deserted Congress owing a number of reasons, including the demolition of Babri Masjid. Congress had to eat a humble pie in the 1994 Assembly elections and the misery continued in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections as well. In the Assembly election all that Congress could manage was 35 seats. Its vote share had plummeted to 27.21 per cent. In the Lok Sabha election Congress had to be satisfied with five of the 28 seats, but still its vote share was a healthy 30.29 per cent. In fact, the performance of Congress in these two elections can be easily termed as the party’s worst show in its electoral history.

Despite the seemingly adverse situation, the workers did not lose heart and in 1999 Congress came back to power. However, the party is again in the doldrums, although the situation is not as utterly hopeless as it was in 1994 and 1999. There is a palpable sense of pessimism in the rank and file of the party. The workers are really upset following the successive electoral defeats in the last three years. This is quite understandable. The aggressive brand of politics practiced by the BJP and the mass exodus of the leaders from the dominant communities to the party have left even the Congress leadership worried.

The poor show of the Congress can, in fact, be attributed to the lack of efficient leadership and the failure to contain fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes or secular votes. The BJP has come to power after a sustained struggle spanning over two decades. In the four Assembly elections held in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008, the percentage of votes secured by the BJP has seen a steady increase. But, significantly the party’s vote share still remains lower than the percentage of votes garnered by Congress.

Although BJP secured power in 2008 by securing 110 seats, the party polled two lakh fewer votes than the Congress. If you analyse the results of the elections, you will understand that even if the Congress had managed to secure five per cent more votes, the situation would have been totally different. This would have made a huge difference to the 66 per cent anti-BJP votes and Congress would have easily garnered additional 50-odd seats.

It is a fact that secular votes get divided between Congress and the JD(S). In the 2004 Assembly elections Congress had managed to secure 35.28 per cent votes while JD(S) had netted 20.59 per cent. However, BJP, which managed only 33.86 per cent votes, ended up winning 79 seats, much higher than the tally of the Congress and the JD(S). In the 2008 elections, Congress and JD(S) polled 34.59 per cent and 19.57 per cent votes respectively. But BJP, with 33.86 per cent vote share, managed to install its first-ever government in South India.

It is evident that the division of anti-BJP votes has immensely helped the BJP in its march towards the seat of power. JD(S) had realized this fact and was looking forward to an electoral understanding with the Congress in order to force BJP out of power and install another coalition government in Karnataka. However, Congress did not send any signals to its former ruling partner. In fact, all political pundits are of the unanimous opinion that any delay in dislodging the BJP government will weaken the chances of ending the saffron party’s run of success in the State. This gives more time for BJP to strengthen its cadre and party by using both moral and immoral means.

Why is Congress not learning from the repeated electoral reverses? Is the century-old party is waiting for more setbacks to think wake up from the slumber? These are the questions many are asking. Drastic measures are required to strengthen the party in Karnataka. Unfortunately, no clear signal has emerged from the party high command with regard to either electoral alliance with the JD(S) or a post-poll pact with the Deve Gowda’s party. In fact, there are differences within the Karantaka Pradesh Congress Committee over the issue. Few leaders feel that a pact with the JD(S) was the only option to avert division of votes. They also show the statistics of the 2008 and 2009 elections to put across their viewpoint. According to them, the BJP could not have grabbed power in the State or won 19 out of 28 seats if there had been an electoral understanding with the JD(S). However, the faction in the Congress which is opposed to any electoral truck, strongly argue that any understanding with the JD(S) will help the regional party more than strengthening its own base.

Today JD(S) is confined to a family. It clout is limited to three four district. The leaders of that party are dreaming of getting a cabinet berth in the event of a pre-poll alliance with Congress. Over the last seven years, the support base of the party has gradually dwindled. On the other hand the expectations and ambitions of Deve Gowda and his family has scaled new heights. In fact, it does not have a presence in majority of the districts of Karnataka. When it went to polls following the split of the party, it secured only 10.42 per cent of votes. Immediately after the election, as many as six MLAs who had been elected from Congress symbol quit the party and joined JD (S). Among them were five MLAs who had been elected from north Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Senior leaders like M.P. Prakash and P.G.R. Sindhia joined the bandwagon. JD(S) immensely benefited from these defections in the 2004 election, it surprised everyone by improving its vote share to 20.59 per cent and the tally of seats to 58. The anti-BJP votes had seen a major division during this election and as a result no party was in a position to form the government on its own. Until that election, the vote share of the BJP had not grown to a level (28.49 per cent) which would help it to capture power.

In the 2008 elections, JD(S) had fielded 218 candidates and only 28 got elected to the Assembly. As many as 105 candidates lost their deposits. Among the 28 winners, only nine were from the 12 districts of the north Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka region. This region constitutes 96 assembly seats. In fact, JD(S) could not open its account in as many as 13 districts. In the Lok Sabha elections held the following year, only three candidates got elected among the 21 candidates the party fielded. It did not contest elections in the remaining 7 seats. The percentage of vote polled by the party was 13.57. As many as 11 candidates lost their deposits. Among those who lost, only one candidate stood second. The three seats that jD(S) won and the seat where it came second were part of predominantly Vokkaliga-majority belt consisting of Hassan, Mandya, Bangalore rural and Tumkur. Interestingly, among the 28 seats it won during the 98 Assembly elections as many as 15 seats came under this geographical area. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, 50 per cent of the 33.35 votes the JD(S) polled were recorded from only four districts.

If JD(S) returns to power piggybacking on Congress support, there is no doubt that the Gowda’s party will try to strengthen its base across the State. The division of anti-BJP votes in the future will also become more pronounced closing the door permanently for the Congress to regain power on its own strength. Today the party is not in a position to form a government on its own in states like Jammu Kashmir, Kerala and Maharashtra. Similarly, once the party enters into poll pact with JD(S), its position will be that of Vikram in the celebrated mythological tale of Vikram and Bethal. The Congress will have to piggyback JD(S) every time the State faced an election.

(The writer is a MLC and a senior journalist based in Bidar)


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Ram Puniyani
February 22,2020

This January 2020, it is thirty years since the Kashmiri Pundits’ exodus from the Kashmir valley took place. They had suffered grave injustices, violence and humiliation prior to the migration away from the place of their social and cultural roots in Kashmir Valley. The phenomenon of this exodus had been due to the communalization of militancy in Kashmir in the decade of 1980s. While no ruling Government has applied itself enough to ‘solve’ this uprooting of pundits from their roots, there are communal elements who have been aggressively using ‘what about Kashmiri Pundits?’, every time liberal, human rights defenders talk about the plight of Muslim minority in India. This minority is now facing an overall erosion of their citizenship rights.

Time and over again in the aftermath of communal violence in particular, the human rights groups have been trying to put forward the demands for justice and rehabilitation of the victim minority. Instead of being listened to those particularly from Hindu nationalist combine, as a matter of routine shout back, where were you when Kashmiri Pundits were driven away from the Valley? In a way the tragedy being heaped on one minority is being justified in the name of suffering of Pundits and in the process violence is being normalized. This sounds as if two wrongs make a right, as if the suffering Muslim minority or those who are trying to talk in defense of minority rights have been responsible for the pain of Kashmiri Pundits.

During these three, many political formations have come to power, including BJP, Congress, third front and what have you. To begin with when the exodus took place Kashmir was under President’s rule and V. P. Singh Government was in power at the center. This Government had the external support of BJP at that time. Later BJP led NDA came to power for close to six years from 1998, under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Then from 2014 it is BJP, with Narerda Modi as PM, with BJP brute majority is in power. Other components of NDA are there to enjoy some spoils of power without any say in the policies being pursued by the Government. Modi is having absolute power with Amit Shah occasionally presenting Modi’s viewpoints.

Those blurting, ‘what about Kashmiri Pundits?’ are using it as a mere rhetoric to hide their communal color. The matters of Kashmir are very disturbing and cannot be attributed to be the making of Indian Muslims as it is being projected in an overt and subtle manner. Today, of course the steps taken by the Modi Government, that of abrogation of Article 370, abolition of clause 35 A, downgrading the status of Kashmir from a state to union territory have created a situation where the return of Kashmiri Pundits may have become more difficult, as the local atmosphere is more stifling and the leaders with democratic potential have been slapped with Public Safety Act, where they can be interned for long time without any answerability to the Courts. The internet had been suspended, communication being stifled in an atmosphere where democratic freedoms are curtailed which makes solution of any problem more difficult.

Kashmir has been a vexed issue where the suppression of the clause of autonomy, leading to alienation led to rise of militancy. This was duly supported by Pakistan. The entry of Al Qaeda elements, who having played their role against Russian army in 1980s entered into Kashmir and communalized the situation in Kashmir. The initial Kashmir militancy was on the grounds of Kashmiriyat. Kashmiriyat is not Islam, it is synthesis of teachings of Buddha, values of Vedant and preaching’s of Sufi Islam. The tormenting of Kashmiri Pundits begins with these elements entering Kashmir.

Also the pundits, who have been the integral part of Kashmir Valley, were urged upon by Goodwill mission to stay on, with local Muslims promising to counter the anti Pundit atmosphere. Jagmohan, the Governor, who later became a minister in NDA Government, instead of providing security to the Pundits thought, is fit to provide facilities for their mass migration. He could have intensified counter militancy and protected the vulnerable Pundit community. Why this was not done?

Today, ‘What about Kashmiri Pundits?’ needs to be given a serious thought away from the blame game or using it as a hammer to beat the ‘Muslims of India’ or human rights defenders? The previous NDA regime (2014) had thought of setting up enclosures of Pundits in the Valley. Is that a solution? Solution lies in giving justice to them. There is a need for judicial commission to identify the culprits and legal measures to reassure the Pundit community. Will they like to return if the high handed stifling atmosphere, with large number of military being present in the area? The cultural and religious spaces of Pundits need to be revived and Kashmiryat has to be made the base of any reconciliation process.

Surely, the Al Qaeda type elements do not represent the alienation of local Kashmiris, who need to be drawn into the process of dialogue for a peaceful Kashmir, which is the best guarantee for progress in this ex-state, now a Union territory. Communal amity, the hallmark of Kashmir cannot be brought in by changing the demographic composition by settling outsiders in the Valley. A true introspection is needed for this troubled area. Democracy is the only path for solving the emigration of Pundits and also of large numbers of Muslims, who also had to leave the valley due to the intimidating militancy and presence of armed forces in large numbers. One recalls Times of India report of 5th February 1992 which states that militants killed 1585 people from January 1990 to October 1992 out of which 982 were Muslims and 218 Hindus.

We have been taking a path where democratic norms are being stifled, and the promises of autonomy which were part of treaty of accession being ignored. Can it solve the problem of Pundits?

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Ram Puniyani
January 9,2020

‘Go to Pakistan’ has probably been most often used phrase used against Muslims in India. Recently in yet another such incident the SP of Meerut, UP has been in the news and a video is circulating where he, Akhilesh Narayan Singh, is allegedly using the jibe ‘Go to Pakistan’. In the video he is seen shouting at protestors at Lisari Gate area in Meerut, “The ones (protestors) wearing those black or yellow armbands, tell them to go to Pakistan”. His seniors stood by him calling it ‘natural reaction to shouting of pro Pakistan slogans. Many BJP leaders like Uma Bhararti also defended the officer. Breaking ranks with fellow politicians, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi of BJP, criticised the said officer and asked for suitable action against him. Interestingly this is same Naqvi, who earlier when the beef related arguments were going on; had stated that those who want to eat beef can go to Pakistan.

Interestingly this is probably the first time that any BJP leader has opposed the use of this jibe against the Indian Muslims. True to the dominance of trolls who support divisive politics, Naqvi has been trolled on the issue. As such vibe ‘Go to Pakistan’ has been a strong tool in the hands of aggressive elements to demonise Muslims in general and to humiliate those with Muslim names. One recalls that when due to the rising intolerance in the society many eminent writers, film makers were returning their awards, Aamir Khan said that his wife Kiran Rao is worried about their son. Immediately BJP worthies like Giriraj Singh pounced on him that he can go to Pakistan.

The strategy of BJP combine has been on one hand to use this ‘go to Pakistan’ to humiliate Muslims on the other from last few years another Pakistan dimension has been added. Those who are critical of the policies of BJP-RSS have on one hand been called as anti National and on the other it is being said that ‘they are speaking the language of Pakistan’.

Use of Pakistan to label the Muslims and dissidents here in India has been a very shrewd tool in the hands of communal forces. One remembers that the ‘cricket nationalism’ was also the one to use it. In case of India-Pakistan cricket match, the national hysteria, which it created, was also aiming at Indian Muslims. What was propagated was that Indian Muslims cheer for Pakistan victory and they root for Pakistan. There was an unfortunate grain of truth in this as a section of disgruntled, alienated Muslim did that. That was not the total picture, as most Indian Muslims were cheering for Indian victory. Many a Muslim cricketers contributed massively to Indian cricket victories. The cricket legends like Nawab Mansoor Ali Khan Pataudi, Irfan Pathan, and Mohammad Azaruddin are just the few among the long list of those who brought glories for India in the field of cricket.

Even in matters of defence there are legions of Muslims who contributed to Indian efforts in the war against Pakistan all through. Abdul Hamid’s role in 1965 India Pak war and the role of Muslim soldiers in Kargil war will be part of Indian military history. There have been generals in army who contributed in many ways for the role which military has been playing in service of the nation. General Zamiruddin Shah, when asked to handle Gujarat carnage, does recount how despite the lack of support from local administration for some time, eventually the military was able to quell the violence in some ways.

During freedom movement Muslims were as much part of the struggle against British rule as any other community. While the perception has been created that Muslims were demanding Pakistan, the truth is somewhere else. It was only the elite section of Muslims who supported the politics of Muslim League and later the same Muslim League could mobilize some other section and unleash the violence like ‘Direct Action’ in Kolkata, which in a way precipitated the actual process of partition, which was the goal of British and aim of Muslim League apart from this being the outcome of ‘Two Nation theory’.

Not much is popularized about the role of great number of Muslims who were part of National movement, who steadfastly opposed the idea and politics which led to the sad partition of the subcontinent. Few excellent accounts of the role of Muslims in freedom movement like Syed Nasir Ahmad, Ubaidur Rahman, Satish Ganjoo and Shamsul Islam are few of these not too well know books which give the outline of the great Muslim freedom fighters like Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, Ansari Brothers, Ashfaqulla Khan.

Immediately after partition tragedy the communal propaganda did the overdrive to blame the whole partition process on Muslim separatism, this totally undermined the fact that how poor Muslims had taken out massive marches to oppose the Lahore Resolution of separate Pakistan moved by Mohammad Ali Jinnah. The whole Muslim community started being seen as the homogenous, ‘The other’ and other misconceptions started against the community, the one’s relating them to atrocities of Muslim kings started being made as the part of popular folklore, leading the Hate against them. This Hate in turn laid the foundation of violence and eventual ghettoisation of this community.

The interactive-syncretism prevalent in India well presented by Gandhi-Nehru was pushed to the margins as those believing in pluralism did not actively engage with the issue. The economic marginalization of this community, coupled with the increasing insecurity in turn led to some of them to identify with Pakistan, and this small section was again presented as the representative of the whole Muslim community.

Today the battle of perception is heavily tilted against the Muslim community. It is a bit of a surprise as Naqvi is differing from his other fellow colleagues to say that the action should be taken against the erring police officer. The hope is that all round efforts are stepped up to combat the perception constructed against this religious minority in India. 

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Prakash SS
 - 
Thursday, 9 Jan 2020

it is very much understandable if Pakistan is bad country our PM Namo would never visited without any invitation, that time Pakistan was good he prised their Mutton biriyani and Karak chai in pakistan. we feel something is wrong with our PM and his chelas. 

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Ram Puniyani
May 2,2020

India has tragically witnessed the phenomenon of lynching becoming dominant during last few years. It was particularly around the issue of Holy Cow-Beef, that lynchings became more prevalent and two communities had to face the brunt of it, Muslims and dalits. The IndiaSpend data showed the rise of the incidents from 2014 and that close to 90% of victims were Muslims or dalits. Some notorious cases of lynchings were the one of Akhlaq, Junaid, Alimuddin Ansari, the beatings of dalits in Una. At another level it is during this period that the noted social worker Swami Agnivesh was also subjected to humiliating beating in the public. The communal color in India by now is so strong that many events, even before the details are known, are looked at from the communal color and false social noises start even before real facts are known.

Nothing can exemplify this more than the tragic lynching of two sadhus and their driver in Gadchinal village, near Palghar, a city nearly 110 Kilomenters from Mumbai. As the news of this tragedy spread the BJP leaders immediately started blaming Muslim minority for the crime. Nalin Kohli in an Interview to a German Channel said so. Not to be left behind Sambit Patra, the BJP spokesperson launched a tirade  against the liberals-seculars for their silence on the issue. As the matter stands the truth comes out that those sadhus were travelling to Surat from Kandivli area of Mumbai. It is a period of lockdown and they did not have the permission so they were avoiding the highway travel and going through interior routes. On this route was a village Gadchinale, an Adivasi dominated village where this tragedy took place.

During the lockdown period due to Corona virus the economic and social deprivation of poor people is extreme. Many rumors are floating there. In this village the rumor doing rounds was that a gang of chid lifters is roaming in different guises. Thats what these Sadhus were taken to be. Since the victims were Hindus and culprits are deliberately presumed to be from the other community. One recalls that to trigger the Mumbai violence in 1992-93 the incidence of murder of two Mathadi workers (HIndus) and burning of Bane family (Hindu) in Jogeshwari area of Mumbai, both these were false, these incidents were used as the pretext for the attack on the minorities.

In this case not only BJP leaders, the RSS itself also  jumped into fray along with Sadhu Samaj. A vicious atmosphere started building up. 

As the incident took place, Palghar case dominated the usual media channels and large sections of social media. The Government of Maharashtra (Shiv Sena+NCP+Congress) stood on the solid ground of truthfulness and arrested nearly 100 culprits, none of them being a Muslim. Interestingly the local body of the village is controlled by BJP and the chief of this body Chitra Chowdhari is a BJP leader. While the Maharashtra Government is standing on the solid ground of the facts of the case, it has also given the warning that those spreading falsehoods will not be spared.

The cruelty of those taking law into their hands is shocking. During the last few years taking law into the hands of the mobs is becoming close to normal. The real reasons are many. One of this being the lack of proper punishment to those who indulge in such dastardly acts. Not only that many of them are in the good books of the ruling establishment and many of them are honored despite their despicable role in such incidents. One recalls that in case of Mohammad Ikhlaq lynching, one of the accused died in the police custoy due to incidentlal disease. Then Union Central Minister Mahesh Sharma landed up to drape his body in tricolor. In another such case of Alimuddin Ansari, when eight of the accused got bail, the Union Minister Jayant Sinha garlanded them. What message it sends down the line?

The other factors contributing to the rise in intensity of violence is the overall social frustration due to life generally becoming more difficult. The rule of BJP has also encouraged intolerance, where people with differing opinions are looked down upon and called anti- Hindu, Anti National etc. Swami Agnivesh who criticised the blind faith, the statements like ‘plastic surgery in ancient India, or divine nature of Barfani Baba in Amarnath was humiliated in public.

The core issue is the dominance of sectarian mindset promoted by the ruling party and its parent organization the RSS. They are waiting to jump at any event which can be given communal color or where the minorities can be demonized. Few news channels, who are playing the role of loud speakers of divisive politics are adding salt to the wounds. The degree of Hate spread in the society has further taken the aid of innumerable social media networks to spread the false hoods down to all the sections of society.

The need for law against lynching needs to be brought in. All those participating in such dastardly violence need to be punished. Before that the whole atmosphere of Hate mongering and feeling that those talking law into their hands can get away with it, needs to be countered strongly. While a prompt police action against such incidents is the need of the hour, those who have made spreading hate as their business need to realize that no country can progress without the feeling of fraternity. Demonizing weaker sections may give them higher TRP, but it is also undermining our path of peace and progress.

Respect for Indian Constitution and rule of law needs to be restored. The fact check mechanisms like AltNews need to be activated much more. And lastly one must applaud the steps taken by the Government of Maharashtra to ensure that justice is done and Hate spreading is  checked right in its tracks.

Comments

Amar Akbar Antony
 - 
Wednesday, 24 Jun 2020

Beautiful article. We need people like you- the need of the hour.

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