With eye on early Lok Sabha elections, BJP shedding saffron image?

Mumbai, Feb 9: Given the slow progress on the ongoing Rs 38,000-crore capacity expansion at the four largest metro airports, and also the surging traffic, the snaky queues will continue at least till 2023, warns a report.

The four largest airports -- New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad -- handle more than half of the traffic and are operating at 130 per cent of their installed capacity. These airports are under a record Rs 38,000-crore capex but the capacity will not come up before end-2023, says a Crisil report.

“With the dip in traffic growth largely behind, we expect congestion at the top four airports of New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, which handle more than half of the load, to continue till about FY23,” says the report.

Already these airports are operating at over 130 percent of installed capacity, and the ongoing healthy traffic growth this operating rate is expected to rise further in the next 12 months.

“Operationalising of capacities in the following two fiscals will bring down utilisation levels albeit still high at over 90 per cent by fiscal 2023 and that is despite an unprecedented Rs 38,000 crore capex being undertaken by the operators of these airports over five fiscals 2020-24,” says the report.

Despite this unprecedented capex that is debt-funded, ratings are likely to be stable given the strong cash flows expected due to healthy traffic growth, low project risks associated with the capex and improving regulatory environment, notes the report.

“Capacity at these four airports will increase a cumulative 65 per cent to 228 million annually (from 138 million now) by fiscal 2023. However, traffic is expected to grow strong at up to 10 per cent per annum over the same period. Since additional capacities will become operational in phases only by fiscal 2023, high passenger growth will add to congestion till then,” warn the report.

High utilisation will ride on pent-up demand (accumulated in 2019 as traffic was impacted with the grounding of Jet Airways) and one-off issues with new aircraft of certain airlines.

Further impetus will also come from improving connectivity to lower-tier cities and reducing fare difference between air and rail. Increasing footfalls at airports provide a leg-up to non-aero streams such as advertising, rentals, food and beverage and parking, which comprise around half of the revenue of airports already.

These are expected to grow strongly at over 10-12 per cent, also supported by higher monetisation avenue coming along with current capex. The other half of revenue (aero revenue) is an entitlement approved by the regulator, providing a pre-determined, fixed return over the asset base and a pass-through of costs.

Aero revenue is also expected to get a bump up during fiscals 2022-24, when a new tariff order for airports is likely. Overall aggregate cash flows are likely to double by fiscal 2024 and provide a healthy cushion against servicing of debt contracted for capex, the report concludes.

India has jumped past 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases and 14,476 people have succumbed to the viral infection so far. In this backdrop, speaking to IANS in an exclusive interview, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said India is also vulnerable to second wave of coronavirus and people should continue to follow social distancing, wearing mask and other precautions, after cases begin to decline.

He added that in order to contain the outbreak of Covid-19, a limited lockdown in hotspots, where volume of cases is very high, may be considered along with a micro-plan to prevent leakage of cases from these areas to other non-containment areas. Excerpts of the interview are below:

Q: Reports say China and South Korea are witnessing a second wave of coronavirus infection, what is this second wave, is India also vulnerable to this?

A: When cases come down significantly, people tend to drop their guard against the viral infection, and this leads to the second wave (which means a sudden increase in the number of cases). After cases begin to decline, people should continue to follow the precautions -- continue to maintain social distancing and wear masks regularly. See what happened in Singapore, it was struck by a second wave of coronavirus. Look, what happened in the 1918 pandemic, people dropped their guard and the second wave of viral infection struck back. If people do not follow social distancing then the spike in cases is apparent. We need to take these precautions at least for one year. India is also vulnerable to this second wave.

Q: If Covid-19 cases continue to rise rapidly, do you think we need another lockdown in areas where volume of cases are very high?

A: A large volume of cases is concentrated in specific areas like hotspots, and in order to maintain things in order, we may need a limited lockdown in these areas. This should be followed by a micro-plan which entails extensive testing of people and also extensive contact tracing of people who have got in touch with positive people. Need to ensure there is no leakage of cases from these areas. People from these areas should not mix with others in non-containment areas. This will aid in containing the outbreak of the virus. People who have developed symptoms should get themselves tested, especially in the containment areas.

Q: With more than 4.5 lakh cases and close to 14,500 deaths, do you think India has reached its peak and a decline in cases is prominent?

A: The cases will continue to increase for some time. The doubling time of cases has also increased. But, the cases will also begin to flatten. Though, it is difficult to give an exact time period in this viral infection, it seems, the growth in cases will flatten in the end of July or beginning of August. A decline will come to this viral infection, but it does not mean that people should drop their guard. As a measure, we need to decrease community participation and citizens should continue to follow social distancing. People should get themselves tested. All these efforts will help in preventing people from contracting this virus. These precautions will also prevent us from the second wave, and we must continue to take precautions. The virus has not gone away, it is still lurking.

Q: India has crossed the 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases so far, although our recovery rate is good, but still 10,000 to 15,000 cases are reported daily. Why do cases continue to spiral, what is the reason?

A: We have to remember a few things -- the bulk of cases are in 10 cities, nearly 70 per cent, and if we take into account cases per million population, the number is not very high, as compared with countries including countries in Europe. Many European countries put together still do not add up to the Indian population. Do not compare India to countries like Italy, Spain etc. We need to focus on hotspots, which contribute to between 70 -80 per cent of cases, and we have to identify cases in these areas at an early stage. The population density is very high in these cities. People in lower socio-economic status are highly vulnerable to the viral infection, as many live together in small spaces and there is a lot of mixing of people happening there. Look at the market places, people are not following social distancing and not wearing masks. In fact, many are in close vicinity of each other.

New Delhi, Mar 29: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said that people should not think of COVID-19 quarantine facilities as a prison and spoke with two survivors of the infection during his radio show 'Mann Ki Baat' to establish that it was curable.
The Prime Minister spoke to coronavirus survivors -- Ramagampa Teja and Ashok Kapoor - and urged them to share their success against the infection with people.
The Prime Minister asked people to listen to the survivors who had successfully defeated the coronavirus.
"I have spoken to a few people who were infected from the virus and speaking to such people. While I tried to boost their morale they also lifted my spirits when I talked to them," he said.
Speaking to the Prime Minister during the show, Ramagampa Teja, an IT professional, who tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from Dubai, said that he was frightened when he tested positive for the disease and could not believe that this has happened to him.
He said even his family was very stressed after finding out his COVID-19 positive status. "But their test results came negative, which I took as a great blessing. And since then, there were improvements every day," he said.
Teja was admitted to a government hospital in Hyderabad and was released after 14 days as he successfully overcame the infection. "The first few days were the hardest but the dedicated doctors and nurses at the hospital ensured that I recovered," he added.
He asked people not to be afraid of being quarantined. "People feel that going into quarantine means going to prison. They should know that the government quarantine is for them and their families. I want to emphasise that people must get tested and do not fear quarantine," he added.
The Prime Minister congratulated him and his family and asked him to share an audio clip of his experience. "I would like you to make an audio of your experiences and share it on social media so that it goes viral and removes fear from people's minds," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also spoke to another coronavirus survivor, Ashok Kapoor, six members of whose family in Agra were tested positive for the deadly virus.
On being asked by the Prime Minister whether they had feared for their lives, Kapoor said, "We were not scared as we received excellent cooperation from the doctors and support staff at Delhi's Safdarjung Hospital."
The six of them were shifted to Delhi and put under quarantine for 14 days where all of them successfully recovered from the infection.
The Prime Minister also commended the spirit of Ashok Kapoor and said: "Your experience came in handy for all. My best wishes to you and your family."
He also urged the Kapoor family to spread awareness regarding COVID-19 in the way they see fit. "Please spread awareness your way and you can feed whoever is hungry, look out for the poor and also spread awareness to people urging them to follow the rules," the Prime Minister said.
"If everyone follows the rules, the country will be saved," the Prime Minister said.
The Prime Minister also thanked the people involved in ensuring the continuous supply of goods and services in the country and advised them to "follow all the safety precautions, take care of themselves and their family members."
Earlier in his address, Modi had asked for the forgiveness of all countrymen, and especially the poor, for the nationwide lockdown in the country in the view of the novel coronavirus. He had then termed it a necessary measure needed to defeat the infection in India.