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Apr 12: India and other South Asian countries are likely to record their worst growth performance in four decades this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, the World Bank said on Sunday.

The South Asian region, comprising eight countries, is likely to show economic growth of 1.8 per cent to 2.8 per cent this year, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report, well down from the 6.3 per cent it projected six months ago.

India's economy, the region's biggest, is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the fiscal year that started on April 1. The World Bank has estimated it will grow 4.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

"The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis," the World Bank report said.

Other than India, the World Bank forecast that Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will also see sharp falls in economic growth.

Three other countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Maldives - are expected to fall into recession, the World Bank said in the report, which was based on country-level data available as of April 7.

Measures taken to counter the coronavirus have disrupted supply chains across South Asia, which has recorded more than 13,000 cases so far - still lower than many parts of the world.

India's lockdown of 1.3 billion people has also left millions out of work, disrupted big and small businesses and forced an exodus of migrant workers from the cities to their homes in villages.

In the event of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warned of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience an economic contraction this year.

To minimize short-term economic pain, the Bank called for countries in the region to announce more fiscal and monetary steps to support unemployed migrant workers, as well as debt relief for businesses and individuals.

India has so far unveiled a $23 billion economic plan to offer direct cash transfers to millions of poor people hit by its lockdown. In neighbouring Pakistan, the government has announced a $6 billion plan to support the economy.

"The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes," said senior World Bank official Hartwig Schafer.

The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

Washington, May 15: A top US senator has unveiled an 18-point plan, including enhancing military ties with India, to hold the Chinese government accountable for its "lies, deception, and cover-ups" that ultimately led to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

The prominent suggestions are moving manufacturing chain from China and deepening military-strategic ties with India, Vietnam and Taiwan.

"The Chinese government maliciously covered up and enabled a global pandemic that has caused misery for so many Americans. This is the same regime that locks up its own citizens in labour camps, steals America's technology and jobs, and threatens the sovereignty of our allies,” said Senator Thom Tillis, presenting his detailed, 18-point plan on Thursday.

"This is a major wake-up call to the United States and the rest of the free world. My plan of action will hold the Chinese government accountable for lying about COVID-19; sanctioning the Chinese government while protecting America's economy, public health, and national security," he said.

The plan seeking to create a Pacific Deterrence Initiative and immediately approve the military's request for USD 20 billion in funding. It also calls for deepening military ties with regional allies and expand equipment sales to India, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Encourage Japan to rebuild its military and offer Japan and South Korea sales of offensive military equipment, it said.

"Move manufacturing back to the US from China and gradually eliminate our supply chain dependency on China. Stop China from stealing our technology and provide incentives to American companies to regain our technological advantage. Strengthen cybersecurity against Chinese hacks and sabotage," the plan stated.

"Prevent American taxpayer money from being used by the Chinese government to pay off their debt. Implement the US ban on (Chinese technology company) Huawei and coordinate with our allies to implement similar bans,” it added.

The plan seeks restitution from the Chinese government and imposition of sanctions for lying about the virus. It further said China should be sanctioned for their atrocious human rights record.

Senator Tillis' plan urges the Trump Administration to formally request the International Olympic Committee to withdraw the 2022 Winter Olympics from Beijing.

"Stop China's propaganda campaign inside the United States. Treat Chinese government-run media outlets as the propaganda proxies that they are," the plan stated.

Urging the government to investigate the Chinese government's cover-up of the spread of COVID-19, the plan also seeks to investigate America's reliance on China's supply chains and threats to public safety and national security.

"Ensure the independence of the WHO through investigations and reform. Expose and counter China's predatory debt-trap diplomacy targeting developing countries. Increase intelligence sharing on potential pandemics and lead the creation of a watchdog organization to monitor foreign governments' handling of deadly viruses," Tillis said in his suggestions.

The coronavirus, which first emerged in China's Wuhan city in December last, has killed over 3,00,000 people with 4.3 million confirmed cases across the world. More than a quarter of all confirmed COVID-19 cases are from the US.

There has been increasing pressure on the President Trump, in the last several weeks, to take action against China as lawmakers and opinion-makers feel that the COVID-19 spread across the world from Wuhan because of Chinese inaction.

Meanwhile, Senator John Barrasso, in a speech on the Senate floor on Thursday, highlighted the need to update the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) legislation that was put on hold by the coronavirus pandemic.

"The virus could have been contained had it not been for the Chinese Government's unscrupulous cover-up. China knew the risk months before the rest of the world; yet Chinese communist leaders destroyed key evidence, they under-reported the number of coronavirus cases, and they misled the world about its deadly, rapid spread," he said.

Asserting that the virus should have been contained in Wuhan, he said tens and tens of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of people worldwide have died as a result of China's failure.

Barrasso said the US should encourage its companies to create American and western supply chains. "That way our frontline workers have what they need in the time of crisis," he said.

"Not again, not ever will we be exclusively sourced for critical drugs from China. We should diversify supply and bring home as much of our supply chain as possible," he added.

Congressman Troy Balderson introduced bicameral legislation with Congressman Doug Collins and Senator Lindsey Graham that will hold China accountable for deceptive actions taken by its leaders that led to the spread and subsequent global pandemic.

The COVID-19 Accountability Act authorises president Donald Trump to impose sanctions on China if it fails to cooperate with a full investigation led by the US or its allies into the events that lead to the COVID-19 outbreak.

"The number of Ohioan lives needlessly claimed by this pandemic could have been significantly reduced had China taken appropriate measures to control the virus' spread and disclose its severity," said Balderson.

"The United States can't look the other way when China so recklessly compromised worldwide health and the global economy. China and its Communist Party leadership must be held accountable," he said.