Food imports rise as Modi struggles to revive rural India

February 2, 2016

New Delhi, Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a late night meeting with food and farm officials last week to address falling agricultural output and rising prices, and traders warn the country will soon be a net buyer of some key COMMODITIES for the first time in years.

indiaBack-to-back droughts, the lack of long-term INVESTMENT in agriculture and increasing demands from a growing population are undermining the country's bid to be self-sufficient in food.

That is creating opportunities for foreign suppliers in generally weak commodity MARKETS , but is a headache for Modi, who needs the farm sector to pick up in order to spur economic growth and keep his political ambitions on track.

"The top brass is dead serious about the farm sector that is so crucial to our overall economic growth and well-being," said a source who was present at the recent gathering of Modi, his agriculture and food ministers and other officials.

Modi sat through presentations and asked the ministers to ensure steady supplies and stable prices, urging them to find solutions, the source said. Modi did not suggest any immediate interventions of his own.

The long term impact on commodity markets could be significant.

Last month, India made its first purchases of corn in 16 years. It has also been increasing purchases of other products, such as lentils and oilmeals, as production falls short.

Wheat and sugar stocks, while sufficient in warehouses now, are depleting fast, leading some TRADERS to predict the need for imports next year.

"There's a complete collapse of Indian agriculture, and that's because of the callous neglect by the government," said Devinder Sharma, an independent food andTRADE policy analyst.

"Given the state of agriculture, I'm not surprised to see India emerging as an importer of a number of food items. Maize is just the beginning."

Growing distress

Agriculture contributes nearly 13 percent to India's $2 trillion economy and employs about two-thirds of its 1.25 billion people.

Government sources said that boosting irrigation, raising crop yields and encouraging farmers to avail of a new crop insurance scheme unveiled in January will help address growing distress in the countryside caused by poor harvests.

Modi has already loosened controls on some imports.

But one of his biggest dilemmas is that although imports can help cool prices - a key concern for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's core middle-class voter base - farmers see them as benefiting foreign producers at the cost of locals.

In a recent interview with television channel ET Now, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the government was aware of the impact two bad monsoons have had.

"That now tells me, please spend more on irrigation," he said.

The farm sector needs to grow at about 3 percent to help Jaitley achieve his target of 7 to 7.5 percent economic growth in the 2015/16 fiscal year.

In the first half of this fiscal year, agricultural growth fell to 2 percent from 2.4 percent a year earlier.

Who are the winners?

India's entry into the MARKET as a net importer is good news for suppliers like Brazil, Argentina, the United States and Canada, which are suffering from a global commodity glut.

India's move to import corn, for example, has supported global prices. Corn values rose 2.6 percent after India said on Jan. 13 that it would launch a second tender for 200,000 tonnes, its second since announcing plans to buy half a million tonnes.

Traders say India may need to import another 1.5-2.0 million tonnes.

The next big import item on the list could be oilmeals, an animal feed, which India used to export in large quantities until last year.

"Very soon we'll be left with no choice but to import oilmeals, largely because our oilseed production has failed to keep pace with our demand for both vegetable oils and oilmeals," said B.V. Mehta, head of TRADE body Solvent Extractors' Association.@Body.

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January 20,2020

New Delhi, Jan 20: Surging inflation and slowing growth are raising serious concerns about the future growth prospects of the economy and as a remedial measure the government should resolve supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms, a report said on Monday.

According to the Dun and Bradstreet Economy forecast, even though the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) turned positive in November 2019, it is likely to remain subdued.

"Slowdown in consumption and investment along with high inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues and uncertainty over the recovery of the economic growth are likely to keep IIP subdued," the report noted.

Dun and Bradstreet expect IIP to remain around 1.5-2.0 percent during December 2019.

As per government data, industrial output grew 1.8 percent in November, turning positive after three months of contraction, on account of growth in the manufacturing sector.

On the price front, uneven rainfall along with floods in many states and geopolitical issues have led to a surge in headline inflation even as demand remains muted.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 percent from 5.54 percent in November, mainly driven by high vegetable prices.

"The sharp rise in inflation has constrained monetary policy stimulus while revenue shortfall has placed limits on the government expenditure," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

According to Singh, growth-supporting measures and deceleration in growth are likely to cause slippage in fiscal deficit target by a wider margin.

"The government should focus on taking small steps to address the slowdown; in particular, resolve the supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms," Singh said.

Unless these concerns are addressed through a comprehensive policy framework, it will not be easy for India to clock a sustainable growth rate to become a USD 5 trillion economy, he added.

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News Network
March 21,2020

New Delhi, Mar 21: Novel coronavirus cases in India rose to 258 on Saturday after 35 fresh cases were reported in various parts of the country, according to the Health Ministry.

Among the 258 are 39 foreign nationals, including 17 from Italy, three from the Philippines, two from the UK, one each belonging to Canada, Indonesia and Singapore.

The total figure also includes four deaths reported from Delhi, Karnataka, Punjab and Maharashtra.

"The total number of active COVID-19 cases across India stands at 231 so far," the ministry said, adding that 23 others have been cured/discharged/migrated while four have died.

Delhi has, so far, reported 26 positive cases, which include one foreigner, while Uttar Pradesh has recorded 24 cases, including one foreigner.

Maharashtra has 52 cases, including three foreigners, while Kerala has recorded 40 cases, which include seven foreign nationals.

Karnataka has 15 coronavirus patients. The number of cases in Ladakh rose to 13 and Jammu & Kashmir four. Telangana has reported 19 cases, which include 11 foreigners.

Rajasthan has also reported 17 cases, including two foreigners. Gujarat has reported seven cases so far.

Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttarakhand have reported three cases each.

West Bengal, Odisha and Punjab each reported two cases while Puducherry, Chhattisgarh and Chandigarh reported one case each.

In Haryana, there are 17 cases, which include 14 foreigners.

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March 12,2020

New Delhi, Mar 12: The Supreme Court told the Uttar Pradesh government on Thursday that as of now, there was no law that could back their action of putting up roadside posters of those accused of vandalism during anti-CAA protests in Lucknow.

An apex court bench refused to stay the March 9 Allahabad High Court order directing the Yogi Adityanath administration to remove the posters.

The top court, which grilled the Uttar Pradesh government for putting up such posters in public, described the plea as a matter that needed "further elaboration and consideration".

A vacation bench of justices U U Lalit and Aniruddha Bose said a "bench of sufficient strength" would consider next week the Uttar Pradesh government's appeal against the Allahabad High Court order directing the state administration to remove the posters of those accused of vandalism during anti-CAA protests.

It directed the apex court registry to put up the case file before Chief Justice of India (CJI) S A Bobde so that a "bench of sufficient strength can be constituted at the earliest to hear and consider" the case next week.

During the hearing, the bench told Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, appearing for the Uttar Pradesh government, that it was a matter of "great importance".

It asked Mehta whether the state government had the power to put up such posters.

The top court, however, said there was no doubt that action should be taken against rioters and they should be punished.

Mehta told the court that the posters were put up as a "deterrent" and the hoardings only said that these persons were liable to pay for their alleged acts during the violence.

Senior advocate A M Singhvi, appearing for former IPS officer S R Darapuri whose poster has also been affixed in Lucknow, told the bench that the state was duty-bound to show the authority of law backing its action.

He said the action of the Uttar Pradesh government amounted to a "mega blanket" approach of naming and shaming these persons without final adjudication and it was an open invitation to common men to lynch them as the posters also had their addresses and photographs.

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