Jayalalithaa finally released from Bangalore jail

New Delhi, May 31: Congress leader Kapil Sibal on Sunday questioned the Prime Minister on how much money has been given to labourers from the PM-CARES Fund.

"I would like to ask Prime Minister Modi, 'Can you tell us how much money did you give to labourers from your PM-CARES Fund?' I request him to answer this question. Many people died during this period, some died while walking, some died in the train, some died of hunger," Sibal said while addressing a virtual press conference.

The senior Congress leader further asked how much ex gratia did the Prime Minister give to the labourers who died in the corona crisis while negotiating the lockdown.

"I refer you to Section 12 of the Disaster Management Act. It says that ex gratia assistance on account of the loss of life and also assistance for the restoration of livelihood should be provided by the government. Did the government give ex gratia assistance to people who died in the crisis? The act also mentions special provisions for widows and orphans. The government should clarify how much assistance they gave to such people," he said.

Sibal said that the government should keep aside its agenda for the last six years and concentrate on making pro-poor policies.

"In the coming days, our economy is going to go into the negative territory as also confirmed by RBI. There are 45 crore labourers in our country. What will be their state? We have to look at our future. That is why we want to request the government that the agenda that they have run over the last six years should be kept aside and that government should care about the poor and draft policies for them," the Congress leader said.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

London, Feb 19: Indian universities had a good performance year within the emerging economies of the world as a record 11 made it to the top 100 Times Higher Education's (THE) Emerging Economies University Rankings 2020.

Only China has more universities than India in the top 100 at 30 from a total of 47 countries and territories included in the analysis released in London on Tuesday evening.

A total of 56 Indian universities appear in the full ranking of a total of 533 universities across emerging economies of the world.

The Indian Institute of Science (IISc), ranked 16th, is India’s top-ranked institution followed by the Indian Institute of Technologies (IITs).

"There has long been a debate about the success of Indian universities in world rankings, and for too long they have been seen as underperforming on the global stage," notes Phil Baty, Chief Knowledge Officer for the THE.

"The Emerging Economies University Rankings 2020 suggests that real progress is being made by a number of institutions in a number of metrics across our robust methodology, and could mark an exciting turning point for Indian higher education, enabled in part by the Institutes of Eminence scheme," he said.

The Indian government’s Institutes of Eminence scheme was established in 2017 and one of its participating universities, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, has entered the top 100 for the first time, moving up a huge 51 places from joint 141st in 2019.

The other universities included in the Institutes of Eminence scheme that appear in the top 100 mark the biggest improvers in the ranking with IIT Kharagpur moving up 23 places to 32nd, IIT Delhi improving by 28 places to joint 38th and IIT Madras climbing 12 places to joint 63rd.

The Institutes of Eminence scheme provides participating universities with government funding and greater autonomy with the aim of moving them into the top 100 of the world university rankings, including Times Higher Education’s World University Ranking, over time.

The expectation is that this will be achieved through a number of changes including an increase in foreign students and staff, offering online courses and encouraging academic collaboration with other top universities around the world.

This year marks only the second time that 11 Indian institutions have held top 100 positions since the ranking began in 2014, when much fewer universities took part in the ranking globally.