After studying speeches of Dr Zakir Naik, Intelligence Dept gives him clean chit

New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.

Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.

Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.

It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.

Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.

The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.

Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."

On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.

Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.

Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.

"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.

According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.

"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.

He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.

"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.

Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."

On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."

"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has thrown movement of lakhs of travelers off gear. This has not only impacted pleasure trips of tourists but also business travel resulting in monetary losses worth millions.

In wake of numerous advisories against travel, the travel industry, particularly the aviation sector, has also get badly impacted. Not only traffic on their once popular routes have plummeted but several have to cancel flights to destinations in China and few other South and East Asian countries to prevent becoming carrier of the contagious virus.

According to MakeMyTrip flight bookings for Southeast Asian countries have been significantly impacted but sectors in But US and Europe are only seeing a marginal dip.

More than 95,000 people in 86 countries have been infected with the virus and more than 3,200 people have died. In India so far 31 persons have tested positive for the virus.

So the situation across the globe remains grim with only positives coming from China where fresh infections of COVID-19 has reduced. But does that make travel safer? And what if you still need to travel...are there enough flights available or whether the ticket you procured protects against any unforeseen cancellations?

Here is the situation as it exists :

International flights by domestic carriers:

*Air India and Indigo that run long haul flights have cancelled their flights to Hong Kong and Shanghai and the restrictions may well run into June

*SpicejJet has cancelled Delhi Hong Kong flights till March 28

*Vistara Airlines has cancelled around 54 flights to and from Bangkok and Singapore.

*GoAir suspends flight operations to Dammam, Saudi Arabia after an advisory issued by the Saudi government to not allow non-Saudi residents to enter. It has also suspended flights to Thailand

International flights by global airlines:

*Almost all major airlines operating out of India have suspended flights to China, Korea, Iran, Italy and some to Japan.

*European and American connections provide by airlines such as Lufthansa, KLM, United Airlines from India continues

*JAL is still operating its service to Japan from India

*United, Air Canada, JetBlue, Alaska, American Airlines, Delta, Brutus Airways have suspended flights to China and reduced operations in countries with high Coronavirus infections such as Italy

Domestic airlines:

There have been no restrictions on domestic travel, so far.

What advisories have been issued by authorities that can affect your travel plan :

*From March 9 midnight all air travellers having visited or arriving from Italy and South Korea will require to submit a certificate of having tested nagative from health authorities -designated lab in their countries for Coronavirus at the departure.

*India has also suspended most visas issued to nationals of Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and China, as well as suspending visas of any travellers who had been to those five countries since February.

*It has now been decided that all incoming international passengers must declare their travel history to health and immigrations officials at India's airports.

*Arrivals from DGCA list of 12 countries undergo thermal screening, passengers with high temperature taken to quantantine

*Screening to be carried out at 21 airports across the country

*Regular (sticker) visa/e-visa granted to nationals of People's Republic of China, issued on or before February 5, 2020 were suspended earlier. It shall remain in force.

*Those needing to travel to India under compelling circumstances may apply for fresh visa to the nearest Indian Embassy/Consulate," the advisory said.

*An advisory had also directed passengers arriving directly or indirectly from China, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nepal, Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan to undergo medical screening at the port of entry

Travel Insurance :

*All Indian carriers are offering full refund or bookings to alternate destinations for flights that were booked earlier but are getting cancelled due Coronavirus scare.

*GoAir stated that people have the option of availing a full refund or utilising the booking amount for any future travel with the airline.

*In a travel advisory, Emirates has stated that those wishing to travel to Saudi Arabia will have to contact the Emirates office or their travel agent for refunds.

*Others travellers having expensive insurance cover may get full refunds by the insurance companies if they have included everything under coverage.

*But a larger number of insurers do not provide travel insurance against any pandemics outright. Moreover, any travel plan made now may not get covered for can cancellations due to Coronavirus.

Bengaluru, Mar 5: Karnataka is facing unprecedented economic difficulties following a Rs 8,887 crore reduction in the state's share in central taxes, cut in allocation under 15th finance commission and a Rs 3,000 crore hit in GST compensation, Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa indicated on Thursday.

Presenting the state budget for 2020-21 in the Assembly, he said Karnataka's share in central taxes has come down by Rs 8,887 crore in 2019-20 as per the revised budget estimates of the central government. Therefore the state's revenue resources have been reduced. Apart from this, Rs 3,000 crore GST compensation will also be reduced as collection from the GST compensation cess is not as expected, the Chief Minister said. "With all this it has become difficult to reach to reach the 2019-20 budget targets and to manage this situation within the bounds of the Karnataka Fiscal Responsibility Act, an inevitable situation has arisen this year to cut down the expenditure of many departments," he added.

As per the interim report submitted by the 15th finance commission, there is a reduction in the state's share of central taxes to 3.64 per cent compared to 4.71 per cent fixed by the 14th finance commission. In view of this, there will be a reduction of Rs 11,215 crore in the state's share of central taxes in 2020-21 budget, when compared to the previous one.

He, however, noted that the allocation recommendation of the 15th finance commission is limited to one year only and the complete report for the period 2021-22 to 2025-26 will be submitted in October 2020.

"Our government will soon submit a revised memorandum to the commission to set right the loss caused to the state with regard allocation for the year 2020-21 and give more allocation for the remaining period," the Chief Minister said. He also said, when compared to the previous year, there is an increase of approximately Rs 10,000 crore for 2020-21 with regards to government employees salary, pension and interest on government loans, but there is no proportionate increase in resources as compared to committed expenditure. "Due to this reduction of the state's share of central taxes as per the 15th finance commission report and other developments, serious difficulties are being faced in resource mobilisation efforts of the state," Yediyurappa said. "This magnitude of economic difficulties was never faced in the previous years by our state," he added.

However, the state's own tax revenue collection is excellent during this year, he said. As compared to the previous year, there is a growth of 14 per cent in State GST collection. "Based on this, in the new budget, efforts are being made to manage the reduction in the share of central taxes by stabilising the state's own resources more", the Chief Minister said.

Karnataka recorded a gross state domestic product growth rate of 7.8 per cent in 2018-19 and Yediyurappa said for the current financial year it is estimated to be 6.8 per cent.