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New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Bhopal, Mar 15: Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath on Saturday sought the intervention of Home Minister Amit Shah for the "release" of 22 Congress MLAs in Karnataka, saying they had been held "captive" and were under "pressure".

In a letter to Shah, Chief Minister Nath said the BJP's demand for floor test had "no meaning" till the MLAs do not reach the state.

He said that the MLAs do not have any means of personal communication and all efforts to reach them have failed.

In the four-page letter, Nath said Governor Lalji Tandon had told him that the responsibility of security of those who will come to meet the Speaker should be with the CRPF but as the Chief Minister, it is his duty to ensure the security of all residents of the state including MLAs.

"I assure you that if these 22 MLAs are released by the Karnataka Police, then I will ensure maximum security by the state government so that they are able to convey their views without fear and take part in the proceedings of the assembly," Nath said.

He urged Shah to use his powers as Home Minister so that 22 MLAs safely reach Madhya Pradesh and discharge their responsibilities "without fear or greed" in the assembly session beginning on March 16."

Chief Minister Nath said that he had been informed that the MLAs had been deprived of all personal communication facilities.

He said that a father was not allowed to meet his son and two ministers who were accompanying the father of the legislator were "arrested" and manhandled by the Karnataka Police.

"My efforts to reach them as also of their relatives have failed which proves my apprehension that they are under captivity."

He said the videos released in the name of MLAs to "mislead" the people of the state were similar. "This proves that all these MLAs are under pressure and they are being forced to act in a particular way," he said.

Nath said that he was drawing Shah's attention to the developments in the state since March 3 which were aimed at destabalising the government.

He said three Congress MLAs, one BSP, and one independent MLA were taken to Gurugram and two ministers of his government were able to "rescue" the BSP legislator.

He said the three Congress MLAs and the independent MLA were later taken to Bengaluru by the BJP. He said a BJP MLA and a party functionary accompanied them.

"Later, 19 Congress MLAs were taken to Bengaluru in chartered planes and the arrangement was done by the BJP," he said, adding that they were accompanied by two former BJP MLAs and a former minister.

Kamal Nath said the number of MLAs in Bengaluru grew to 22 and they are all in the protection of the Karnataka Police.

He said some BJP leaders from Madhya Pradesh can be seen in pictures of the place where the MLAs were staying. "All reported expenses on these MLAs are being borne by the BJP," he said.

He said the BJP leaders had told the media about the resignation of MLAs and they had not presented themselves before the assembly Speaker.

Kamal Nath said he was concerned about the security of the MLAs and had written to the Governor earlier.

"You would agree with me that the demand for floor test has no meaning till the 22 MLAs are in captivity. This is unprecedented that the BJP is demanding floor test and several Congress MLAs have been kept outside the state,' he said.